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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of Material Technical Engineering Department Performance by Staff Member and student in Technical College -Baghdad
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The research intent evaluates the performance of material technical department / Technical College -Baghdad.

The study depend on the descriptive analytical approach to determine and treating the variables to get data and information that related to study, the researchers depended on questionnaire designed for this purpose and contains eight main dimensions that’s are scientific reference , academy course, staff member , administrative system, physical facilities , student ,scientific research, graduate service , in addition each dimension  involved (5) items contacted with mean dimensions, which translate aspects of  performance evaluation, the questionnaire applied on two samples staff member

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Truncated Test for Finding the Parameters of Single Sampling Plan under Distribution of Log-Logistic
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A group of acceptance sampling to testing the products was designed when the life time of an item follows a log-logistics distribution. The minimum number of groups (k) required for a given group size and acceptance number is determined when various values of Consumer’s Risk and test termination time are specified. All the results about these sampling plan and probability of acceptance were explained with tables.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Impact of Electronic Health Information Systems upon Medical, Medical Backing and Administrative Decisions in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of the electronic Health Information Systems upon medical, medical Backing and administrativedecisions in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. Methodology: A descriptive analytical design is employed through the period of June 14th 2015 to August 15th 2015. A purposive "non- probability" sample of (50) subject is selected. The sample is comprised of (25) medical and medical backing staff and (25) administrative staff who are all involved in the process of decision making in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. A self-report questionnaire, of (68) item, is adopted and developed for the purpo

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Proposed framework for governance of municipal institutions to restrain of fraud: بحث تطبيقي في المؤسسات البلدية لمحافظة بابل
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The past decades have witnessed a development in the concept of corporate governance and the transformation of a concept that is limited to large companies listed in capital markets in major economies to an issue that concerns all business activities in the public and private sectors in both large and small countries. The aim of this research is to propose a guide to the mechanisms and rules of governance in the municipal institutions that contributes to the activation of the internal control system to reduce the fraud and manipulation of this activity. Institutions. The research was based on the hypothesis that the implementation of the principles and rules of governance in municipal institutions lead to the contribution of the activati

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Hong-Ou-Mandel Dip Measurements of Two Independent Weak Coherent Pulses for Free Space Quantum Key Distribution Systems
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Preparation of identical independent photons is the core of many quantum applications such as entanglement swapping and entangling process. In this work, Hong-Ou-Mandel experiment was performed to evaluate the degree of indistinguishability between independent photons generated from two independent weak coherent sources working at 640 nm. The visibility was 46%, close to the theoretical limit of 50%. The implemented setup can be adopted in quantum key distribution experiments carried out with free space as the channel link, as all the devices and components used are operative in the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Temperature and Alcohol on the Determination of Critical Micelle Concentration of Non- Ionic Surfactants in Magnetic Water
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The determination of critical micelle concentration of selected non-ionic surfactants (Tween 20,40 and 80) have been investigated using magnetic water(MW)as an aqueous medium.Conductometry technique is used to determine critical micelle concentration.The effect of alcohol addition and temperature variation at the range(293.15 -303.15K) are also pursued. It is concluded that the process of micellization is spontaneous and endothermic because of the observed free energy of micellization (ΔGom) , enthalpy change of micellization  (ΔHom), and entropy change of micellization (ΔSom) for the system was also studied.The properties of the non-ionic surfactants were studied, both in absence and presence of

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Activating the Role of Fidelity Gruantee Insurance Policy to Ensure the Rights of the Beneficiaries: An Applied Research in National Insurance Company
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This research set to indicate the role of the opportunity cost in the overall economic development (human and social development) by selecting the most appropriate alternative for the growth of the country in exchange for sacrificing profit limits to achieve this growth and development of the country, especially in the present circumstances of the country and after studying the reality of the economic case for him, as the problem lies with don't selecting the best alternative that enhances the gross domestic product, which extends to promote overall economic development and revive the industrial and agricultural sectors, productivity is more like Impotent, versus sacrifice alternative consumption may bring more financially lucrative than

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Quality of Life for Adult Clients with Hypermobility Syndrome Attending Private Clinics in Baghdad City: A Cross-Sectional Study
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Objective)s): To evaluate the quality of life for adult clients with hypermobility syndrome at private clinics in Baghdad City. Methodology: A cross-sectional study used a purposive ‘’non-probability’’ sample of (75) adult clients with Hypermobility Syndrome (HMS) male and female who age (25-64) years. The data were collected through the utilization of standard developed questionnaire of the world health organization (WHO). Data collected by interview with each client who is involved in the study. Each interview takes approximately (20) minutes. Results: The study revealed that there is an effect of hypermobility syndrome on the quality of life, which recorded fair level in general. The study also reported that there is an effect

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use some of the scheduling rules for nursing staffs to improve operational performance _ Applied Research in al- Shahed al-Sadr General Hospital
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             Hospitals are part of the service organizations and most importantly at the level of individuals because they are tied to the people health and their daily lives , the nursing service is one of the important services provided by hospitals, and nurses are the human resource that offers this service, from this standpoint the idea of  ​​research came to prepare work Scheduling for nurses in a scientific way to improve performance operational for their services and provide efficient service available 24 hours a day, the research use one of the modern and scientific rules of scheduling its “schedule of

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the cognitive peak and its implications for achieving outstanding performanceAnalytical study of the views of a sample of the staff of the University of Baghdad
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        Knowledge represents the foundation stone for the work of all organizations, are working who leads the thinking of individuals is the ability that leads to behavior based on rationality, it is the work that creates value to the organization and thus gain access to performance winning where that knowledge is a new type of capital based on the thought and experience and is the so-called intellectual capital, which is renewable and is constantly evolving. The study sought to explain the role of the climax  knowledge in achieving the highest levels of performance Organizational and then access to the performance winning in educational organizations the study sample, was found to be a co

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