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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2015
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
The Degree of Satisfaction of Secondary School Principals with the Role of Universities and their Obstacles in Developing their Administrative Skills
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    A field study aimed at identifying the degree of satisfaction of secondary school principals with regard to the role of universities and their obstacles in developing their administrative skills. It adopted the descriptive analytical approach. The research community consisted of (249) male and female principals in the schools of Baghdad (Al-Rusafa and Karkh), and the research sample was chosen by the simple random stratified method at a percentage of (40%) of the research community, and the number of the sample was (100) male and female principals. A questionnaire consisting of (40) items distributed between two domains was developed. Its validity and reliability were confirmed. The researcher used the (SPS

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
A political perusal of Initiations in Declaring Middle East a District vacant of mass Destruction weapons
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A political perusal of Initiations in Declaring Middle East a District vacant of mass Destruction weapons

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effectiveness of Management Information Systems (MIS) and its impact on Governmental Organization Performance in Jouf Region of Saudi Arabia
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The aim of this research is to find the impact of the efficiency of Management information systems (MIS) on the effectiveness of governmental organizations performance.

To achieve the objective of the research, the analytical descriptive method was adopted. A questionnaire was designed consisting of (35) paragraphs, and the sample consisted of (200) individual. The research attemped to answer the following question: To achieve the objective of the research, the analytical descriptive method was adopted. A questionnaire was designed consisting of (35) paragraphs, and the sample consisted of (200) individual. The research tried to answer the following question: What is the actual utilization of modern admi

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
User (K-Means) for clustering in Data Mining with application
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  The great scientific progress has led to widespread Information as information accumulates in large databases is important in trying to revise and compile this vast amount of data and, where its purpose to extract hidden information or classified data under their relations with each other in order to take advantage of them for technical purposes.

      And work with data mining (DM) is appropriate in this area because of the importance of research in the (K-Means) algorithm for clustering data in fact applied with effect can be observed in variables by changing the sample size (n) and the number of clusters (K)

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 15 2025
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات وبحوث التربية الرياضية
تأثير تمرينات تعليمية بأسلوب التمرين المتغير في الاداء الفني لفعالية الوثب العالي للطالبات
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هدف البحث الى إعداد تمرينات تعليمية  بأسلوب التمرين المتغير واثره في تعلم مراحل فعالية الوثب العالي, واستخدمت الباحثون المنهج التجريبي على عينة من (20) طالبة في المرحلة الرابعة جامعة بغداد كلية التربية البدنية وعلوم الرياضة للبنات شعبة ( ب), مقسمين الى مجموعتين تجريبية وضابطة , واستخدم الباحثون منهج تعليمي بأسلوب التمرين المتغير للمجموعة التجريبية لمدة (6 أسابيع) بواقع وحدتين تعليمية في الأسبوع , واستنتجت

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
Aesthetics word word Allah in Kufic script design configurations: عادل سعدي فاضل السعدي
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Taken the word the word God itself the task when the Muslim calligraphers because of its holiness and majesty and altitude, so take Calligraphers innovate in their design, which represents the images and forms experiencing them prolific artistic output to highlight the aesthetic value through the use of Kufic script which is one of the most prominent lines his susceptibility diversity decorative Add the possibility of extending the letters in different directions because of the vision calligrapher aesthetic and an investigation is required for the word of the design, so the researcher examined by dividing into four chapters,Was the first research problem and the importance and goals and identify the term, while the second chapter was div

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
American Folk Art in Light of the Concept of the Social Imagination (Analytical Study): اسعد يوسف الصغير
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The current research is summarized by studying and understanding the imagination and what resulted from it in postmodern arts, specifically Pop Art. The research was focused spatially (America) between the year 1950-1975 AD and it defined the research problem by asking about what factors and variables that established the social imagination in culture Al-Gharbia, which in turn crystallized the Western cultural product to appear in its form, which is historically called "pop art". Two studies were adopted in the second chapter. The first one was the cultural structure of the social imagination. The second topic was concerned with the stylistic diversity of pop art, and the third chapter included research and accreditation procedures. Ther

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 21 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Detection of Aflatoxin B1 among Early and Middle Childhood Iraqi Patients
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      The study was conducted for the detection of Aflatoxin B1(AFB1) in the serum and urine of 42 early and middle childhood patients (26 male and  16 female ) with renal function disease, liver function disease, in additional to atrophy in the growth and other symptoms depending on the information within consent obtained from each patient, in addition to 8 children, apparently healthy, as  the control. The technique of HPLC was used for the detection of AFB1 from all samples. The results showed that out of 42 patient children, 19 (45.2%) gave positive detection of AFB1 in the serum among all age groups patients with a mean of 0.88 ng/ml and a range of (0.12-3.04) ng/ml. This was compared with the cont

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Perceptions of Iraqi EFL Pre-service Teachers of Sustainable Development
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Sustainable development (SD) is an improvement that meets present needs but jeopardizes the ability of new populations to do the same. It is vital to acquaint EFL students with the terminology and idiomatic expressions of this discipline. Nowadays, sustainable development and the environment have been prioritized in every aspect of life. Since culture and the teaching of Foreign language English cannot be separated, the English language becomes the mean of communication in health, economics, education, and politics. Thus, integrating sustainable development goals within language learning and teaching is very important. This descriptive quantitative study aims to investigate the perception of EFL pre-service teachers of sustainable develo

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
« L'agressivité de la parole et de l'acte » dans Haute Surveillance et Les Bonnes de Jean Genet
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Sommaire

                      La question de la violence et de l'agressivité  porte une importance remarquable dans l’esprit de Jean Genet qui estime le crime   en le considérant comme beau. Il lui donne une valeur suprême. Il le glorifie avec ses personnages criminels.   Le langage théâtral genétien est violent qui conduit à la fin à l’acte agressif, le crime et la mort. Ce théâtre qui aborde la condition humaine retrace sur la scène le chemin tragique de l’homme moderne.               

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