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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Realization of positive politeness strategies in language
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Social sustainability in vertical housing complexes/study area: Al Salam Haiy
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Living in sustainable residential place is one of the most important factors affecting the quality of life in neighborhood complex within the vertical housing complexes. This research focuses on indicators of social sustainability because of their effective impact in achieving a good quality of life . The most prominent of these indicators include: (social interaction, neighborhood grouped and trust, social cohesion, security and safety, privacy, connectivity opportunities for meeting and , and community participation, and cultural diversity). This was done through a questionnaire (for the residents of the Al-Salam residential complex in the city of Baghdad), and the form includes a set of questions related to indicators of social sustai

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
An Analytical Study of the Impact of Military Spending on the Chinese Economy Growth for the Period (1990-2018)
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     The increase in military spending has become a feature of the times for many countries, including China. They have sought to increase their defence spending, not with the aim of domination and possession, but rather to protect their economic interests and to secure their foreign trade. The research aims to identify the impact of military spending by studying the nature of defence spending and its role in providing security. And stability and facilitating foreign investment in it, as well as storming the military industry, securing some humanitarian supplies, and participating in a variety of public works that can be used in the civil and military fields, and the aim of the research is to id

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Contemporary accounting thought problems and its Roles in creation Global financial crises: An analytical study
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  With occurrence of any financial crises, regardless at global or regional levels such as the great economic crises during 1929 – 1933 and the Asian financial crises at the end of twentieth century as well as the current global financial crises that started during second half 2008, we acknowledge that there are some critics loudly articulated accusing accountants and auditors for disparences, and they are numerical partner of financial manipulation as well as corrupted administrators with the company's administrators that they are difficulty. At this point, many suggestions and recommendation for upgrading the accounting system has been made.              &nbsp

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Polite Dialogue in Selected Samples of Quranic Stories: تارا فرهاد شاكر القاضي
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 It is no doubt that dialogue is a behavior for human communication. It varies according to the place and occasion that requires it. Dialogues are of two types: positive purposeful and negative non-purposeful. The study aims to shed light on those patterns of dialogues contained in the Quranic stories represented by the characters and events participating in that dialogue activity. To expand the circle of social relations, and in order to make these relationships a success, there are several rules that must be adhered to.For instance, the dialogue should  not be tolerant to a personal opinion, or prolonged, or should not deviate from its text. The expression of polite dialogue has been raised in recognition of these dialogue et

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 03 2021
Journal Name
مجلة تكريت للعلوم السياسية
نظرية الاعتراف في الفكر السياسي الغربي المعاصر: أكسل هونيث ونانسي فريزر انموذجا
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يعيش المجتمع العالمي أزمات بنيوية ونسقيه عميقة واختلالات وظيفية أسهمت في تنامي مظاهر الصراع المختلفة واشتداد تفجر الأزمات الهوياتية وتزايد الامراض الاجتماعية المقضة للعيش المشترك والمربكة لمظاهر التعايش والتآلف مع لجوء إنسان العصر الحالي الى التقوقع والاحتماء والانزواء تحت هويات ضيقة ونحل صغيره في مشهد يظهر مدى تراضي شبكة العالقات الاجتماعية على أداء وظائفها وأصبح عندها الاغتراب والقلق واللاتضامن والع

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Effect of Flaring Angle of Transition Structure On the Scouring of outlet structure
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The transition structure is considered as the most important hydraulic structure controlling the w/s transtion, morever it decrease the scouring of outlet structure.

seven experiment samples for transition structure was used in this research at different angles ( 10° - 90° ).

       It was shown that froud number has a clear effect on the depth of the scouring, morever the high discharge rates cause an increase of the ratio between the length of the scour and its depth.

       In order to select the best flaring angle it was shown that the angle of 40° has the most discharge rate, least structure length and least angle scour depth, with the firmly of t

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 24 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Over the awareness of managers strategic importance of vigilance: "Exploratory study in the National Insurance Company"
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The rapid reality of events in the information era, and the enormous pressure of forces market, competition, permanent movement of the markets and consumers and the large development unprecedented of technology in all areas make a lot of organizations find it difficult to keep up with this rapid developments .Here was the role of strategic vigilance closer organization to their environment ,and play an active role in providing the necessary information to make decisions and insurance companies are not far from those changes .On this basis the researcher offered studied(Over the awareness of managers of insurance companies for strategic vigilance).Choosing sample of 35 managers in the National Insurance Company to test th

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Jan 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
استشعار وحفز مفهوم "التنمية المستدامة" لدى طلبة مدارس اعدادية منتخبة في بغداد
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends In Iraqi Oil Revenues After 2003 Under The Effect Of World Oil Prices Fluctuation
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Characterized Iraq, being one of the oldest countries where oil was discovered in the Middle East since 1927, and possess a vast oil reserves. In addition, the production and marketing of Iraqi oil continued since 1934 and until the present time. Over the past eight decades, the range of economic benefit of the financial Iraq’s oil resources varied according to the applicable forms of investments in the oil sector in Iraq.

This research included a study

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