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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The possibility of applying CAPP technology to improve the quality of the product
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     The research deals with A very important two subjects, computer aided process planning (CAPP) and Quality of product with its dimintions which identified by the producer organization, the goal of the research is to Highlight and know the role of the CAPP technology to improve quality of the product of (rotor) in the engines factory in the general company for electrical industries, The research depends case study style by the direct visits of researcher to the work location to apply the operational paths generated by specialized computer program designed by researcher, and research divides into four axes, the first regard to the general structure of the research, the second to the theoretical review, the t

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
متطلبات تطبيق المواصفة ISO 9001:2008)) في الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية دراسة حالة
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The research is to use the specifications and detection of the main and secondary causes of the problems that lead to the weakness and low quality of local production in Iraqi companies and develop appropriate solutions to them, as Iraqi companies suffer from the low quality of production, And the adoption of the requirements of ISO 9001: 2008, which contributes to the development of production processes within the company, and through the field co-operation and survey conducted for public companies affiliated to the Ministry of Industry and Minerals, The importance of the research through the statement of the most important problems facing the General Company for vegetable oil industry in terms of low and weak in production qual

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Possibility of Applying Quality Management System ISO9001: 2008 in Station Project Al Rustumiya - A Case Study
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The research study of the possibility of the application of the quality management system under the international standard ISO ISO9001: 2008 in the station project Rustumiya wastewater treatment of the Department of SEWER BAGHDAD - Baghdad MOREALITY as the first step in the right direction towards the implementation of total quality management (TQM), and the research Find the gap between the international standard and the quality system used in the organization surveyed through the use of checklists to analyze the gap, the checklist have included (191) items distributed on five basic requirements, according to the appearance in the international standard, namely, (quality management system, management responsibility, resource man

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تحليل الفجوة بين الواقع الفعلي و متطلبات المواصفة ISO14001: 2015 دراسة حالة في شركة مصافي الوسط / مصفى الدورة
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يعد نظام الإدارة البيئية ( EMS ) على وفق المواصفة ISO 14001:2015 من الانظمة الإدارية الحديثة والمهمة في وقتنا الحالي، اذ هو أحد أدوات الأدارة البيئية بعّده مدخلاً للمعالجة أو الحد من المخاطر البيئية وآثارها، وبالخصوص الاثار الناجمة من الصناعة النفطية والتي تعد المصدر الرئيس للتلوث البيئي وهدر ونفاذ الموارد الطبيعية. تتجلى مشكلة الدراسة في ضعف عملية تشخيص والحد من مخاطر الج

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 25 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY ROSE BEETLE MALADERA INSANABILIS (BRENSKE) ON FRUIT AND ORNAMENTAL PLANTS AND ITS CONTROL BY PATHOGENIC FUNGI: ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY ROSE BEETLE MALADERA INSANABILIS (BRENSKE) ON FRUIT AND ORNAMENTAL PLANTS AND ITS CONTROL BY PATHOGENIC FUNGI
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The study aimed to evaluate injuries and economic losses which caused by rose beetle Maladerainsanabilis (Brenske) on ornamental and fruit plants as introduced insect in Iraq during 2015 and determine infested host plants in addition to evaluate efficacy of pathogenic fungi Metarhiziumanisopiliae (1x10⁹ spore/ ml) and Beauvariabassiana (1x10⁸spore/ ml) in mortality of insect larvae in laboratory and field.The results showed that the insect was polyphagous infested many host plants (20 host plant)Which caused degradation and dead the plants through adult feeding on leaves and flower but large injury caused by larvae feeding on root plants which caused obligate dead to infested plant, the percentage mortality of rose plants 68.6%, pear

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Challenges Faced by Families of Children with Intellectual Disabilities and Its Effect on the Psychological Health in the Asir
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Abstract

This research aims to identify the challenges faced by families of children with intellectual disabilities and to identify the impact of the challenges facing them on the mental health of their children with intellectual disabilities. Based on the following questions: What is the nature of the challenges faced by families of children with disabilities and how do these challenges affect the mental health of their children with intellectual disabilities? The study was conducted on a sample of four families of six children with intellectual disabilities, depending on the degree and type of disability. To achieve the study's objectives, the qualitative approach was used, Because of the importance of accessin

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization and Prediction of Process Parameters in SPIF that Affecting on Surface Quality Using Simulated Annealing Algorithm
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Incremental sheet metal forming is a modern technique of sheet metal forming in which a uniform sheet is locally deformed during the progressive action of a forming tool. The tool movement is governed by a CNC milling machine. The tool locally deforms by this way the sheet with pure deformation stretching. In SPIF process, the research is concentrate on the development of predict models for estimate the product quality. Using simulated annealing algorithm (SAA), Surface quality in SPIF has been modeled. In the development of this predictive model, spindle speed, feed rate and step depth have been considered as model parameters. Maximum peak height (Rz) and Arithmetic mean surface roughness (Ra) are used as response parameter to assess th

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Proposed Hybrid Cryptosystems Based on Modifications of Playfair Cipher and RSA Cryptosystem
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Cipher security is becoming an important step when transmitting important information through networks. The algorithms of cryptography play major roles in providing security and avoiding hacker attacks. In this work two hybrid cryptosystems have been proposed, that combine a modification of the symmetric cryptosystem Playfair cipher called the modified Playfair cipher and two modifications of the asymmetric cryptosystem RSA called the square of RSA technique and the square RSA with Chinese remainder theorem technique. The proposed hybrid cryptosystems have two layers of encryption and decryption. In the first layer the plaintext is encrypted using modified Playfair to get the cipher text, this cipher text will be encrypted using squared

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 25 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ROLE OF PROMOTIONAL MIX ELEMENTS IN ENHANCING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: GENERAL COMPANY FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF PHARMACEUTICALS AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES IN SAMARRA / CASE STUDY.: THE ROLE OF PROMOTIONAL MIX ELEMENTS IN ENHANCING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: GENERAL COMPANY FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF PHARMACEUTICALS AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES IN SAMARRA / CASE STUDY.
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The research is based on a statement of the effect and nature of the relationship of elements of promotional mix represented by (advertising, personal selling, sales promotion, public relations and direct marketing) as the independent variable in the dependent variable represented in the competitive advantage in the General Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies Samarra. Analytical descriptive in the theoretical side, through the use of a number of literature from scientific sources (books, research and studies published in Arab and foreign magazines) was also relied on the methodology of the case study in the practical side, Data collection using the questionnaire tool, which was designed using the triangular Like

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Diagnosis of factors affecting the strategic implementation of sewage projects ( Case study in General Directorate of sewage projects )
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  This  Research aim to identify the factors affecting the strategic implementation of sewage projects and to seek to activate the real follow-up of projects to identify the factors that accompany their implementation, The study included a sample of the projects of the investment plan implemented for the Directorate General of sewage in the governorates of Iraq, which was completed during the six years period (2010-2016). The sample of the research was four projects: The project of implementation and processing of the treatment plant and the lifting station and the conveyor line for the project of IMARA/The third stage/Al-Sanaf marshland , The project of the processing and implementation of the treatment plant with the

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