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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
إستخدام التحليل الهرمي (AHP) في المفاضلة لإختيار المجهزين: دراسة حالة في الشركة العامة للمسح الجيولوجي والتعدين
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Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) belongs to the family of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)  and has, recently, received a wide popularity in decision making regarding supplier selection.  The objective of this study is to apply the methodology of AHP on selecting suppliers to supply materials for the  Geological Survey and Mining  Company (GSMC).  Criteria for rating the suppliers and pairwise comparisons were identified by the members of the Tenders Analysis Committee (TAC). In order to judge the internal validity of the AHP, it was applied manually on a sample of fourteen tenders that were analyzed  and executed between 2004-2007, then an interactive computerized  package was developed 

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 20 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Can diode laser avoid pilonidal sinus excision by the conventional operation?
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Background: Pilonidal sinus is a recurrence pathology that affects the gluteal area, cleft part of it.  It affects many parts but mainly the sacral area and may present with various forms; from the asymptomatic cyst to severe infection in a form of painful abscess or sinus. The treatment of pilonidal sinus ranges from observation with good hygiene to excision of the sinus left wide incision. Recurrence may follow the excisional procedure and may need more operations. Many conservative ways had been used for the management of the sinus; laser (phototherapy) is one kind that may use. this paper aims to test the efficiency of the laser (diode 980nm) in the treatment of the sinus. material:

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Problems lead to the low level of academic achievement in the evening school: suggestions and solutions
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Academic achievement is a professional standard for measuring student levels in the first stages. Therefore, any indication of the level of achievement makes us in an attempt to employ students in evening schools. The researcher has developed a closed questionnaire of (36) paragraphs. A total of (164) male and (24) female students were chosen from evening schools. The result of this research revealed that the number of students was a reason for the low level of their achievement, the lack of laboratories, educational methods, and techniques of the most prominent problems confirmed by students in these schools. In addition, to support educational institutions with their necessary needs. The most important conclusion in this research is th

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المشكلات التي تواجه طلبة كلية التربية/ الجامعة المستنصرية اثناء فترة التطبيقات التدريسية وحلولهم المقترحة لها
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يهدف البحث الحالي إلى التعرف على المشكلات التي تواجه طلبة كلية التربية/ الجامعة المستنصرية أثناء فترة التطبيقات التدريسية ، كما يهدف إلى معرفة حلولهم المقترحة لها.

          وقد شمل عينة عدد أفرادها (293) مطبقاً ومطبقة يتوزعون على ثمانية أقسام . وهي تمثل حوالي (50%) من المجتمع الأصلي للبحث ، وقد جرى اختيارها بالطريقة الطبقية العشوائية .

       &

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Semi Parametric Logistic Regression Model with the Outputs Representing Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number
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In this paper, the fuzzy logic and the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number were presented, as well as some properties of the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number and semi- parametric logistic regression model when using the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number. The output variable represents the dependent variable sometimes cannot be determined in only two cases (response, non-response)or (success, failure) and more than two responses, especially in medical studies; therefore so, use a semi parametric logistic regression model with the output variable (dependent variable) representing a trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number.

the model was estimated on simulati

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Process Parameters That Affecting on Surface Roughness in Multi-Point Forming Process Using ANOVA Algorithm
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of Quality of Health Service in Primary Health Care Centers / Case Study in Family Medicine Centers in Baghdad
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The aim of this research is to identify the level of health services provided in the health centers operating in the family medicine system in Baghdad, and to determine the extent to which these health centers are applied to the internationally recognized standards , "Defining the quality of service gap between health care centers operating in the family medicine system and the standards adopted by the corresponding international centers (Al-Shabab Model Family Medicine Center, Al-Jahad Family Health Center, Al-Adhamiya Family Health Center, Al-Zawiya Family Health Center), and in view of what our health institutions are facing. The family of primary health care centers has difficulties, obstacles and challenges such as the diffi

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of customer contact on operation performance Case study in the specialist Dental Centre in Al-alwia
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the researchers Sought to determine the impact of the customer contact (Within a client contact there are two times, first is the total time required to create a service and within it there is contact time while the second time is the time of client contact ؛ where means a time that records the physical presence of the customer during the process of service) on operations performance by concentrate attention on the cost (labor productivity) and quality (patient ratio to the doctor) and speed (cycle time) and flexibility (the flexibility range) , as well as ruling out variable of innovation because of impossibility to measure this variable in the Specialty Center for Dental in al-alwia due to the center is lacking of mechanisms t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
دور معايير المحاسبة الدولية في القطاع العام ( IPSAS ) في تفعيل أداء المؤسسات الاقتصادية والأجهزة الحكومية: بحث تطبيقي في محافظة ذي قار
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One of the most distinguished instrumentsis being used by the state for implementing its strategy andachieving perfectly and effectively its goals and policies, and economizing the Public Finance and uplifting the services level for the sake of people, is truly thegovernmental accounting system.

 Thus, through this system the upper hand is located for supplying the accurate information, which does make the complete and just expressing concerning the budget implementing results. So,this research comes here because of the hugeness in this sector and the associations largeness and the dread of the governments failure in fulfilling its obligations and the provided services, and the required need for the effective and capable inf

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Content Assessment of the Sciences Textbooks of Grades (1-4) in the Light of International Standards in Mathematics and Science TIMSS 2019 (Cognitive Process Dimension)
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The current research aims to determine the requirements of Trends of International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS 2019) and to find out the extent to which the content of science textbooks for grades (1-4) in the Sultanate of Oman includes the requirements of (TIMSS 2019). Only the Cognitive Process dimension has been considered when conducting the analysis. The study population includes all science books from the first to the fourth grade for the academic year 2021-2022. The study identified and organized the requirements in the study tool, which is a list of requirements of (TIMSS 2019). After confirming its validity and reliability, the analysis was performed, and data were collected and analyzed statistically using frequencies

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