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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Pragmatic Analysis of Illocutionary Act in a Selected Presidential Speech on COVID-19
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     This paper aims at studying the illocutionary speech acts: direct and indirect to show the most dominant ones in a presidential speech delivered by the USA president. The speech is about the most critical health issue in the world, COVID-19 outbreak.  A descriptive qualitative study was conducted by observing the first speech delivered by president Trump concerning coronavirus outbreak and surveying the illocutionary acts: directive, declarative, commissive, expressive, and representative. Searle's (1985) classification of illocutionary speech acts is adopted in the analysis.

     What are the main types of the illocutionary speech acts performed by Trump in his speech?; Why does

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Title “public , private and edition” By Imam Al-Qanuji, in his book Al-Raudha Al- Nadi
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Abstract

The research discusses the biography of Imam Al-Qanuji,  his syllabus in his book “ Raudha Al- Nadia , and Public, particular, edition  definition. Then it mentions the types of matters and the Imam Al-Qanuji’s opinion in it, and it mentions the early and contemporary scholars’ opinions and simplifies their logical and unwritten proofs. It also discusses and librates the place of dispute, then it swages reliable based on the power of the proof and interest without any contravention which the orthodox law orders.  Furthermore, the research discusses matters like,  whether there is any particular formula for public, or whether the public considers the Quraan as i

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of compensation system in improving the quality of educational services (Halabja University as a model)
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          This study deals with the role of compensation system in improving the quality of educational services (University of Halabja as a Model) also our problem was the following question ; What is the role of compensation system in its different dimensions in improving the quality of educational services? And what is the relationship and impact of using the dimensions of the compensation system to improve the quality of educational services? The hypothesis of the research included the correlation and the impacts between the compensation system and its combined variables in the quality of educational services. This was proved through a field study and the distribution of questionn

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The security environment in Northeast Asia between American authority and Chinese influence
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The security environment for Northeast Asia is extremely important, as it includes most of the international actors (United States of America, China, Russian Federation and Japan), which gives the nature of the interactions of these forces a special importance for the region.

Because of the multiplicity of policies and interests of the active forces in the region, the result has been an unstable regional environment where the interests of the major powers often clash repeatedly on many related issues, which is coupled with the growing efforts of many powers to adopt policies that differ from what they did in the past This resulted in different patterns of relations, which were mainly characterized by competition over regional lea

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
التربية النفسية والاخلاقية عند مسكويه في كتابه ( تهذيب الاخلاق وتطهير الاعراق)
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أن الامم والشعوب لاتستطيع المحافظة على استمرار وجودها وتقدمها ورقيها، إلابفضل إعداد اجيالها المتعاقبة الاعداد السليم المتكامل ، وبقدر ما تحافظ الامم والشعوب على تربية هذه الاجيال للتمسك بدينها ، ومعتقداتها ، واخلاقها ، بقدر ما تحافظ على بقائها وعلو شأنها ، وكما فطنت الامم والشعوب إلى اهمية تربية اجيالها ، فطن اعداؤها الى ضرورة التخريب في جذور البناء الصحيح لتربية الاجيال ( فاطمة ، 1998، ص2).

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Arts of Media Writing / An Empirical Study on the Privacy of Media Writing
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Media writing is accuracy writing. Clarity and concision are its predominant features. It is a writing that goes straight to the essence because it has no time to waste. Furthermore, it must be as accurate as scientific writing. It is destined for the average reader and has to be understood by everyone. However, it can be as elegant as literary writing. The variety in its forms of expression does not prevent media writing from having its own amplitude.

In short, this study is a practical approach that aims at studying different kinds of writing styles and identifying the specificity of media writing using some patterns and examples

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Jews of the East in the journey of Benjamin and the Andalusian Alttali (d. 586 AH): (دراسة تحليلية)
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Because of the diverse circumstances in Andalusia, the Jews lost much of the atmosphere of freedom and coexistence, which they enjoyed under Islamic rule there, to leave more Jews in the sixth century AH, under Spanish rule abolishing the existence of the other. And to impose his negativity with unjust domination. What motivated the people of Judaism; to turn their faces on the Islamic East; according to the coexistence climates that glorified various religions. It has emerged in this regard Benjamin Title (d. 685 e), who made a long journey to the east, recorded in the texts of the traveler, what will be shown research, God willing.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Reflective Mercifulness and its Implications for Social Cohesion / field study in Baghdad Governorate
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Mercifulness is a trait of civilization, humanity, and a moral value in society, because it has an impact on social life and its role in spreading interdependence, joint liability, and solidarity among people. Mercifulness means spreading mercy, synergy, sympathy, and cooperation. Generally, a society that enjoys strong ties tends to have a kind of stability and development, as well as, is able to face the economic, political, and security crises. Conversely, a weak society leads to weak social cohesion and weak community infrastructure that is more vulnerable to social, economic, and political instability. Thus, this is the aim of the research that has used a social survey method applied to a sample of respondents who have reached (300)

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2007
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
عرض رسائل (الموقف من التعددية الحزبية في الفكر السياسي الاسلامي المعاصر)
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عرض رسائل (الموقف من التعددية الحزبية في الفكر السياسي الاسلامي المعاصر)

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Impact of the Use of Piano on the Development of Musical Possibilities of Violinists
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This research is to take advantage of the performance capabilities which the piano has become famous with and transfer the impact of that advantage to the possibilities of playing the violin. The research aims to introduce the effect of using the piano on the development of the violinists' musical potential. The research, in its literature, focuses on the interpretation of the impact on the possibility of both instruments (piano and violin) in two main sections: the piano (its origin, potential and role in music) and the violin (its origin, potential and role in music). The procedures of the research consisted of presenting a special analysis of a questionnaire consisting of a number of questions presented by the researcher to her resear

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