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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
دور الوظيفة الاتصالية للصحافة في المساعدة على الهروب من التوتر والاغتراب
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
المشكلات الاجتماعیة لذوي الاحتیاجات الخاصة (المسنین) دراسة میدانیة في مدینة بغداد
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The present study deals with the social work and the social problems which
the Elderly who lives in the house of special needs suffer from . this study aims to
shed light to the most important social problems which they suffer from inside and
show their relationship and interaet with each ofher and what we can see about that
intereact either negative or positive relationship . Its scientific importance include
adding a new study in the field of take care of the Elderly . and that will enrich the
scientific field with agood knowledge . Becouse the studies in this part was little ,
but the scientific and practical importance of this study presents by the results and
specify of the important problems . In addition to

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2010
Journal Name
(مجلة الأستاذ )،الصادرة عن (كلية التربية ابن رشد /جامعة بغداد)
علم المعاني في كتاب ( البلاغة والتطبيق ) للدكتور أحمد مطلوب ( تنبيهات وإضاءات )
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تنظر المجلة

Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social indications (Marriage websites) - A field study in internet cafes
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Marriage is considered one of the strongest ties that links between two human beings , but after the evolutions that happened in our Arab communities and specifically in the Iraqi community , marriage through the internet websites appeared . this kind of marriage is considered one of the new phenomena that appeared in the present time in many societies. That was through internet websites like yahoo , Facebook and other websites that have chat features.
The Islamic sharia looks negatively at marriage through the internet announcing that this way is harmful for both the man and the woman

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Al-Rawandi and His Book “Rahat Il-Sudoor and Ayat Il-Suroor” A historical Study in Content and Style
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The Rwandan author of comfort chests and verse pleasure of the most important historians of the Seljuks in the sixth century AH / twelfth century and belongs to the mostly ethnic scientists family has won favor with the Sultans of the Seljuks until he became the most famous Markhém is his main source of research sources with respect to the political and social history the Seljuks and the relationship of the Seljuk sultans of the Abbasid caliphs in Baghdad.
The book included the history of the Seljuks from the time of statehood in the fifth century AH / atheist century AD until the death of the Sultan Tgrl bin Arslan year 590 AH / 1193 AD and then shed Akhawarzmeyen, and touched the author at the end of the book in separate chapters t

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of analytical procedures in enhancing confidence AndCredibility of the financial statements presented to the Tax Administration
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The research aims to Measuring the auditors' commitment with the analytical procedures of the economic units of the research sample in carrying out their professional duties and the importance of this commitment to the tax administration and the extent of their reliance on the external auditor's report and the financial statements in determining the income tax and its effect on the tax revenues.

The research depends on a main hypothesis stating that "The use of analytical procedures by the external auditor has a positive impact on the availability of confidence and credibility in the financial statements presented to the tax administration and has a positive impact on the tax revenues."

The resear

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The poetry of the sensory image of Ibn Dannir al-Musli poems (B627 H.)
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تُعبّرُ الصُّورةُ الحسَّيةُ في شعرِ ابن دُنَينير الموصليِّ([i]) في بنيتها عن تجربةِ الشاعرِ الوجدانيةِ والذهنيةِ, وأفكارهِ ومشاعرِهِ؛ فيصوغُ بها مَفهومًا جديدًا للواقعِ الماديِّ والمعنويِّ، الذي يتسمُ بالوضوحِ أولاً، وبالقرْبِ من الذهنِ ثانيًا، للربْطِ بين الحواسِّ الإنسانيةِ والمعاني الذهنيةِ، لِتُقَدِّمَ الصُّورةُ الحسيَّةُ إلى ((المتلقي صُورًا مرئيةً، يُعادُ تشكيلُها سياق

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Cognitive Implications of Usage-Based Approach: رغد فهمي اعجمي
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Tremendous efforts have been exerted to understand first language acquisition to facilitate second language learning. The problem lies in the difficulty of mastering English language and adapting a theory that helps in overcoming the difficulties facing students. This study aims to apply Thomasello's theory of language mastery through usage. It assumes that adults can learn faster than children and can learn the language separately, and far from academic education. Tomasello (2003) studied the stages of language acquisition for children, and developed his theory accordingly. Some studies, such as: (Ghalebi and Sadighi, 2015, Arvidsson, 2019; Munoz, 2019; Verspoor and Hong, 2013) used this theory when examining language acquisition. Thus,

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Dec 16 2024
Journal Name
مجلة( النشرة الدولية في علم اللغة التطبيقي) Sabir. International Bulletin Of Applied Linguistics
فاعلية تطبيق أسلوب المهام الدراسية في اتقان اللغة الاسبانية للطلبة العراقيين
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فاعلية تطبيق اسلوب المهام الدراسية في اتقان اللغة الاسبانية للطلبة العراقيين.

Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
ملامح معاییر نقدیة في مقامة الشعراء (الموفیة) للسرقسطي ت ٥٣٨ ھ
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Stop and stop Alsergsti classed many of the characteristics of great poets and
literary arts and persuasions, in Mqamth cash cash Antzmtha three criteria: the
standard of Islam and the standard time, and Maaartadd purposes of poetry. This
has had its effect on lighting stand many of the goals of the poets and their
attitudes.
The first criterion: Those who study the positions of Alsergsti to poetry and
poets must be discerned his money comes from the spirit of Islam as a religion and
creed and a system, a position that is encouraging him wherever expressed, such as
the Muslim community the new values, away from the vulgarity, which contributed
to the formulation of the standard of religious poetry criticism.

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