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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Phenomenon repercussions Globalization on pedagogical action and Educational in Arab society
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Globalization as phenomena has affected   all aspects of life and reflected its impacts to the Arab world politically, economically, and culturally and became a vital field that related directly to our life. This field of searching needs as many studies and Academics as for employing the means that needed to face a national challenge which targeting the Arabic man Character in its ethics and values. This very important thing needs a very important reaction to face that challenge to protect the cultural ARABIC & ISLAMIC characteristics and to take care of education in all its levels and   forms as it is an invincible fort. For that, this field has become as the priority of the studying and researches if the

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The extent of including logical intelligence in the Book of chemistry for the fifth Grade of science
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The aim of the current research to determine the extent of logical intelligence in the book of chemistry for the fifth grade of science and to achieve the goal the researcher has prepared a special criterion in the areas of logical intelligence main and sub-to be included in the book after reviewing the previous literature and studies in this regard may be the final form after presentation to experts and arbitrators in the field of Educational and psychological sciences, curricula and teaching methods from (3) main areas and (21) sub-fields, then the researcher analyzed the book Bibih and applied branches and adopted the idea of ​​both explicit and implicit as a unit of registration and repet

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Dynamic Bayesian network to estimate the reliability of Adamia Water Network
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Abstract\

In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effect of Combining Video Lectures and Kolb Experiential Learning on EFL Student-Teachers’ Ability to Teach Communicative Coursebook and their Teaching Competencies
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Communicative-based textbooks are developed and disseminated throughout the country.
However, it is difficult for teachers who themselves have learnt English through the traditional
approaches to suddenly be familiar with CLT (Communicative Language Teaching) principles
and teach communicatively. Therefore, many teachers remain somewhat confused about what
exactly CLT is and others familiar with CLT but unable to achieve communicative classroom
teaching. Consequently, those teachers need to be introduced to the CLT principles and they need
training in how to put CLT principles into practice. Accordingly, this study aims to find out the
effect of combining video lectures and Kolb experiential learning on EFL student-t

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 27 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Nursing Care Services Provided to Children under Five Years Based on Integrated Management of Child Health at Primary Health Care Centers in Baquba City
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Objective(s): The study aims to evaluating the quality of nursing care provided to children under five years to compare between quality related to type of health sectors; to determine the quality of nursing care and to compare between such care in Baquba Health Care Sector I and II.

Methodology: A descriptive study is carried out for the period from December 15th 2019 to May 1st 2020. A purposive "non- probability" sample, of (60) staff nurse and (60) children is selected. An adopted questionnaire has been selected for the study which consists of three parts. The first part is nurses’ socio-demographic characteristic; the second part is ch

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 24 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Arabic Language Teachers’ Training Needs for Implementing Cognitive Trips Strategy when Teaching Arabic Language Courses in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: أمل ناصر الحربي, و وفاء العويضي
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The present work focuses on examining the strategy of cognitive trips and the Arabic language teachers’ training needs of such a strategy when teaching Arabic language courses in the Saudi Arabia Kingdom. To achieve the objective of the study, and check whether this strategy is used in lesson planning, lesson teaching, or lesson assessment, a descriptive approach and a questionnaire have been adopted. The researchers used a number of statistical tools, and chose a purposive sample, which consists of (58) Arabic language teachers from Saudi Arabia Kingdom. Results have shown that the training needs of Arabic language teachers for implemining the strategy of cognitive journeys while teaching Arabic language courses came in the following

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
: Islamic law; perfection The rule of perfection in Islamic law and its impact on the creative construction of the individual and society: The rule of perfection in Islamic law and its impact on the creative construction of the individual and society
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This research explains to us the role of the Islamic religion in the issue of accuracy in speech and work, and how it is closely related to human production in his life, and Islam affirms that his idea is mainly reflected in his production, and how it affects the perception of the meaning of creativity. Therefore, our Islam affirmed the accuracy in every word or work we do to build a society in which people enjoy high quality in ethics and dedication in their work so that the Islamic system depends on humanity to preserve our rights on the other hand the research discusses the deliberate default and how it reflects on our production and how it makes it less good.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 19 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect flexibility of the Strategic human resources in improvement operational performance: "Survey study of views of a sample of managers, engineers and technicians in the Baghdad south 2/Station directorate of Electricity"
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The research attempts to diagnose the level of the effect of human resources flexibility (employees skills flexibility, employees behaviors flexibility, and human resource practice flexibility) in the south al-rusafa directorate of a power  station one of the formations and the Ministry of Electricity, and impact of a range of variables related to the performance operational, namely, (efficiency, effectiveness)recognizing the importance of the subjects studied,& because of the importance of expected results of the field under consideration,researcher selected a sample of size (121) engineers and technicians of workers in the directorate. Was my hypotheses the major search of a relationship and impact between human resources flex

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 02 2020
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الظاهرة اللغوية بين الوص ف والتفسير أث ر المفاهي م الكل ي ة في التوفيق بين الاتجاهين العقلاني والطبيعي في دراس ة اللغ ة البشرية
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This research investigates modern linguistics in terms of the “universality” concept, through which linguistics shifted its attention from the description of the phenomenon into finding an interpretation of it. Then it investigates what needs interpretation in the language

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Word-Formation System And Its Influence On The Translation Of New Vocabulary In Russian And Arabic: Словообразовательная Система И Ее Влияние На Перевод Новой Лексики В Русском И Арабском Языках
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Derivational word formation process is one of the most substantial linguistic procedures that solves many problems in the translation of the language new vocabulary and helps to comprehend the smallest language component that not simply semantically and structurally explain the elements  of both Russian and Arabic but also enables translators to comprehend the derivational method procedures of both languages. It also reveals the structural aspects of translation equivalences, cognitive and semantic foundations of translation. The rapid development of languages and the appearance of a new vocabulary like ṭabaʿa "print → ṭābiʿat "printer", kataba "to write" → kātib → kātibat, rafaʿa "to raise" → rāfiʿat "a crane" d

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