تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
الامم المتحدة وقضايا التنمية في العالم الثالث
على الرغم من أن الجامعات والمراكز والمؤسسات العلمية في الجامعات العراقية تزخر بالعديد من الكوادر والخبرات العلمية والأكاديمية المؤهلة علمياً وفنياً لانتاج البحوث العلمية والاشراف على طلبة الدراسات العليا، غير ان عملية انتاج الابحاث العلمية التطبيقية على وجه الخصوص تعترضها مجموعة من الصعوبات والمعوقات التي استطلعها الباحثين اما من خلال التجربة الشخصية, او من خلال استطلاعات اراء طلبة الدراسات العليا والب
... Show MoreCompensation is one of the most discussed topics in the arena of civil law that requires research About solutions to the damages that arise from the promotion of extremist ideas, which were imposed by the developments taking place in society and the increasing escalation of accidents and their increasing risks, which now threaten individuals and their property on a daily basis in large numbers, as the injured party always seeks to require quick compensation from the person responsible for the damage that satisfies his desires and removes the effects of the damage caused, The importance of compensation increases if the violation affects a person’s physical integrity or his right to life, which is the highest right recognized for humans in
... Show MoreIs no longer a football player looks to sport as a means of entertainment and physical development. But become see as part of The economic and is getting in return for the effort of، Through a contract with a club to organize the activity which is called a contract of professional, This contract is similar to the rest of the contracts in terms of problems and dispute that arise during the implementation or after it ends because of the nature of sports to such disputes and privacy being subject to special rules (regulations, national and international professional) required that subject to judicial bodies private mission confined settle sports disputes these entities and is affiliated unions legal committees and the court of arbitration for
... Show MoreMycobacterium tuberculosis resistance to rifampicin is mainly mediated through mutations in the rpoB gene. The effects of rpoB mutations are relieved by secondary mutations in rpoA or rpoC genes. This study aims to identify mutations in rpoB, rpoA, and rpoC genes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates and clarify their contribution to rifampicin resistance. Seventy isolates were identified by acid-fast bacilli smear, Genexpert assay, and growth on Lowenstein Jensen medium. Drug susceptibility, testing was performed by the proportional method. DNA extraction, PCR, and sequencing were accomplished for the entire rpoA, rpoB, and
... Show Morebjective researcher through this research to Put a theoretical framework to strategic orientation the center on the market in the business and the diagnosis and interpretation of the nature of the link between relationships and influencing strategic orientation dimensions Almtmthelh organizations (Entrepreneurial Orientation, market Orientation, Interaction Orientation) and the performance of the Iraqi Private Banks The research community and the level of dimensional and through the use of scale (Balanced Scorecard) Bmnzawradtha the four, the test of this research in the Iraqi banking sector (Gulf Commercial Bank
... Show MoreNon-additive measures and corresponding integrals originally have been introduced by Choquet in 1953 (1) and independently defined by Sugeno in 1974 (2) in order to extend the classical measure by replacing the additivity property to non-additive property. An important feature of non –additive measures and fuzzy integrals is that they can represent the importance of individual information sources and interactions among them. There are many applications of non-additive measures and fuzzy integrals such as image processing, multi-criteria decision making, information fusion, classification, and pattern recognition. This paper presents a mathematical model for discussing an application of non-additive measures and corresp
... Show Moreالنحت العربي في جنوب شبه الجزيرة العربية (اليمن) قبل الاسلام
We have found through research , that administrative institutions on the outskirts of Kufa and their management is not as important as administrative institution in place that were associated with it and subject to its control ,as it often was express power , or poor ( if true ) expression , directors of the center for the suburbs , as it became clear to our diversity of those administrative institutions and prominent role in the interest of the affairs of the people and society in all aspects of life , and are the functions and different staff from the highest authority the suburbs represented by house of representatives ( the workers ) ,then workers abscess and Al-dhaqan and not to mention for other jobs came the actions of Bhaltsier a
... Show MoreAs the process of estimate for model and variable selection significant is a crucial process in the semi-parametric modeling At the beginning of the modeling process often At there are many explanatory variables to Avoid the loss of any explanatory elements may be important as a result , the selection of significant variables become necessary , so the process of variable selection is not intended to simplifying model complexity explanation , and also predicting. In this research was to use some of the semi-parametric methods (LASSO-MAVE , MAVE and The proposal method (Adaptive LASSO-MAVE) for variable selection and estimate semi-parametric single index model (SSIM) at the same time .
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