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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Free will between Slavery and Freedom: A Study of Linda Brent in Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl by Harriet Jacobs
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Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong w

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Publication Date
Sun May 22 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ESTIMATION OF SOME FOOD ADDITIVES AND HEAVY METALS IN SOME ORANGE JUICE.: ESTIMATION OF SOME FOOD ADDITIVES AND HEAVY METALS IN SOME ORANGE JUICE.
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The study included examination of three types of different origin and orange juice at the rate of recurring per sample, the results showed that the highest rates of acid (pH) in the A and juice were (4). And salts of calcium is 120 ppm in juice C and 86 ppm of magnesium in the juice B, for heavy metals the highest rate of lead .18 recorded ppm in juice B, 1.32 ppm of copper in juice A, 5 ppm of iron in the juice B, 1.3 ppm of zinc in the juice B, 0.05 ppm of aluminum in each of the sappy B and A, 0.02 ppm of cobalt in the juice B, 0.3 ppm of nickel in the juice B, 170.6 ppm sodium in C juice, but for the acids, organic that the highest rates were 3.2 part Millions of acid in the juice owner a, 260 ppm of the acid in the juice the ascorbi

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 05 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EVALUATION OF CHEMICAL AND MICROBIAL QUALITY FOR SOME BOTTLED WATER THAT AVAIABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS: EVALUATION OF CHEMICAL AND MICROBIAL QUALITY FOR SOME BOTTLED WATER THAT AVAIABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS
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This study was conducted to evaluate the bottled water quality for the six-producing companies in Baghdad city, where selected six brands which are the most marketed in the Iraqi market, especially in Baghdad, where taking the proper amount of bottled water in September 2015 and included the studied characteristics (EC , pH ,TDS, Turbidity, Ca+2, Mg+2, Cl-, No3-, So4-2, HCO3-, Na+ and K+) in addition to the total population of bacteria aerobic and coliform, and compare the results with the standard specifications of the Iraqi and the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as to compare the results of sampling specifications mentioned on the packaging by the producing companies. The results showed the presence of high significant differ

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 04 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EVALUATION OF IMPACT OF MARKETING POLICY IN Al-FURAT GENERAL COMPANY FOR CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND PESTICIDES: EVALUATION OF IMPACT OF MARKETING POLICY IN Al-FURAT GENERAL COMPANY FOR CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND PESTICIDES
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Marketing is one of the most important pillars on which most industrial and commercial sectors depend on evaluating their performance, improving their financial position, development and economic growth. The presence of effective marketing activities in any industrial or commercial organization (which works to meet the requirements of customers in order to ensure the integration of trading and handling rings with consumers and to ensure the growth of the marketing process regularly and not to retreat) effectively contributes to maintaining the company's position between its competitors and its customers. It is necessary to have these marketing activities in order to meet the requirements of the organization on the one hand and to

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Attitudes of Mass Media Students in Baghdad University toward Marriage
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This Study aims at identifying the attitudes of Masses Media students in Baghdad university toward marriage and the differences of this variable according to sex and the grade. The sample consists of (160) male and Females students, where the questionnaire consists of (40) items’ after achieving their reliability and constancy.
The results show that the attitudes of the students are Positive, there are no differences in the attitudes toward marriage according to sex variable (males and females) and there are differences in the variable of grade toward marriage for the First Class. In the lights of these results the researcher suggests making improvements in the attitudes toward marriage suiting the social value and customs of Iraqi

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Illiteracy and its Impact on the Reality of Iraqi Youth between Heritage and Contemporary
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Illiteracy has spread in the last years, although it was eliminated in the 1980s. The return of illiteracy brings ignorance, illness, backwardness and regression among nations. It has taken many types, mainly alphabetical, scientific and computer illiteracy. Hence, the increasing nature of illiteracy has attracted the attention of governments and societies alike. This may touch the reality of societies starting with their youth unless those, who are in charge, will find workable solutions for the existing problems. The results of the study revealed that there is a real disaster awaiting the next generation after years of stray, and ignorance of the people in charge who are too engaged in getting their privileges to care about this proble

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 14 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الوجوه والنظائر في كتاب (غريب القرآن) للسجستاني دراسة دلالية
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الحمد لله رب العالمين والصلاة والسلام على سيد المرسلين أبي القاسم محمد    (صلى الله عليه وآله وسلم ) وعلى آله الأطهار الميامين ، وصحبه الأبرار المنتجبين إلى يوم الدين 0

وبعد : فإن أجلّ ما بأيدي أبناء هذه الأمة القرآن كتاب ربّها ، الناطق بمصالح دينها ودنياها ، الذي جعله الله تعالى هدىً ورحمةً للعالمين ، وأنزله على خير خلقه من عباده محمّد الصادق الأمين ، وحث المسلمين على أتباعه ، وأمرهم على ل

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
الألفاظ المَعبِّرة عن المطر في القرآن الكریم دراسة دلالیة
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The Holy Koran is the highest text in the eloquence, It is one of the
important sources of the linguistic syntactic and eloquent study; it impacts
upon these sciences Avery intense impact through advancing its verses as an
argument in the confirmation of the significance of the term
The holy Koran was and still the fountain of the linguistic studies, as
they tend towards it since the second century of the hegira. So this research is
a study of the expressive terms concerning the rain in the holly Koran, a
linguistic study; it aims to study the term concerning its linguistic and
conjugate significance and its expression concerning the rain through reality
and metaphor.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
معوقات عمل المرأة في المنظمات غير الحكومية بحث ميداني
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The issue of volunteerism is one of the most important issues that have become prominent in social sciences and contemporary social thought, especially as a result of the transformations and changes that the world undergoes today. The voluntary sector has become the concern of all societies and governments for its development and service to society and various sectors. The practice of women is prominent in the work of volunteerism after 2003 in Iraq, but its work face a number of obstacles and hindrance. The problem of research is the obstacles of women's work in non-governmental organizations. The research aims to identify the nature and characteristics of volunteer work of Iraqi women.        &nb

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 17 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التنظيمات المالية في العصر العباسي (132-566هـ/749-1170م)
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The Abbasid Caliphate generally paid attention to the financial aspect through the collection of resources , And also in terms of spending these resources

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