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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التأثير التأثير الحضاري للأندلس في عهد الفونسو العاشر
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The Spanish King Alfonso X could deliver mane Andalusia culture to Europe, but it is the subject of our research, we decided to give a brief overview of his life.

This king March was politically different from the rest of the Spanish kings, which is opening up to the literature and Eastern thought, it is the.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Belief in the Last Day and its impact on building a Muslim's personality
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Research Summary

        The doctrine of belief in the Last Day is one of the pillars of faith, and the doctrine of resurrection and reckoning are part of this day.

 Belief in the Last Day puts a person in constant control over himself, as this control creates in this person happiness and a decent life, and he renounces the world and turns away from all vices and adorns all virtues.

        On the other hand, we find that the person who does not believe in this day does not stand before his eyes anything that prevents him from doing injustices and corruption in the land. The doctrine of belief in the Last Day alone is

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Variation in general formulas in the strength of its foundation and the reasons for the discrepancy
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A legal discourse in the Qur’an and Sunnah is almost devoid of the use of one of the general formulas, and due to its frequent rotation in the tongue of the legislator, the formulas may overlap their members in apparently contradictory provisions, which makes the individual from the general members appear to the beholder to be covered by two contradictory provisions, and this research came to present what might happen to him The legal text interpreter of weighting between the two opposing texts is the strength of the generality that is established by the generality formula, so the two strongest formulas in the inclusion of its members outweigh the weaker of them and precede them, and the research decided that the formulas vary

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Acquisition provisions in Islamic jurisprudence: A model - a comparative study
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Acquisition provisions in Islamic jurisprudence

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 14 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Methods and Means of public relation in dealing with Bureaucracy
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The importance of Public Relations activity has increased during the last half of the last century as a specialized and modern administrative function in most institutions. It has, moreover, become an integral part of activities of those institutions of various types, due to its pivotal role in building its reputation and drawing a good mental image among its audiences, as well as its influential and basic role in maintaining communication and the communication between its members at its various levels and their job tasks to ensure the greatest amount of understanding and to enhance trust between them. This is why public relations activity has become indispensable in all institutions, and without it, it is difficult to achieve any coordi

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The role of the sound effect to represent the psychopathic character in cinema
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The process of employing modern technology in a consistent manner is what the researcher is interested in, and the psychological role of the sound effect in enhancing psychopathic representations in cinematic characters, which had a wide resonance in the field of cinematic films, and after the predominance of digital technology in the production of contemporary films, the sound effect has a higher efficiency And a good level of advanced aesthetic and dramatic expression in film employment, so many directors resorted to this type of films by using various new and advanced techniques and technological programs in their industry, since the traditional construction does not achieve the dazzling that the viewer desires.

Accordingly, th

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflection of the service encounter environment in enhancing customer satisfaction
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Because of the fierce competition between service organizations on the one hand and the increasing demands of customers on the other. Therefore, these organizations sought to distinguish their service by taking care of all aspects. One of these important aspects is the service encounter environment and its reflection on customer emotions, so we choose the current research to clarify the importance and impact on customer satisfaction, the problem of research is how the interest of Iraqi restaurants in the service encounter environment and how to care about its elements and whether this interest is sufficient to reflect the satisfaction of the customer. the goal of the current research was to clarify how much the application of the

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
role of tools promotional mix in sales growth
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    The mix promotion important to any organization in general, has been selected promotional mix tools in this research to identify the role in maximizing the Organization of sales growth business, which included the research problem several fundamental questions about the role of each promotional tool of advertising, public relations and personal selling and sales promotion direct marketing within the promotional mix in the promotion of business sales organization. The research aims to provide theoretical and field organizations surveyed about the role played by the mix promo in sales growth, and  importance of research on the identification of more than promotional tools impact on sales gr

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 05 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The role of educational curricula and teaching methods in the development of environmental
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Described the Arabic language being of genius sets by top models of eloquence , rhetoric and clarity of sounds and developments Moreover , it is an important element of our existence and our identity and our survival . That my methods and best in teaching Arabic language what has pursued the easiest ways to learning and teaching and helped learners to be aware of the function linguistic information , and they need it and its impact on their lives , and contributed to unleashing the potential of activism and led them to make the effort to apply them in the form of examples and uses of new life , as well as fits are the capabilities and tendencies of different learners , so the goal of current research into the importance of the curriculum

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
talent management and its role in Empowering employees
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Abstract

The research aims at achieving a set of objectives, which is to study a vital variable in the organizations which is the talent management and its impact on encouraging and empowering employees to take part in making appropriate decisions with their heads in the Iraqi Cement State Company. The problem of this research is in finding solutions to the weaknesses that face the managers in attracting talented employees and keep them in the company, and this leads to a weak capacity of the company on authorizing talented employees and giving them the needed confidence to participate in decision making process. The research sample was included (45) managers in the researched company. Th

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