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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Value system and its impact on the morals of the public job of the individual
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         Values ​​are penetrating or interfering in the lives of individuals and groups and are connected to them in the sense of life itself, because they are closely linked to the motives of behavior, hopes and goals, and can be said that values ​​are everything. The concept of values ​​is one of the concepts that have received the attention of researchers from different disciplines. This has resulted in a kind of confusion and variation in use from one specialization to the other, and uses multiple uses within one specialization. Therefore, there is no uniform definition of values ​​because they relate to individuals. Individuals differ in many things, such as perception,

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Towards Scaling up Palestinian women’s participation in Private Businesses
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This study sheds light on female entrepreneurship in Palestine, and explores the reasons behind its relative weakness as compared with men, and with female entrepreneurship in other countries. This study aims at proposing effective policies and doable measures to enhance female entrepreneurship. Achieving this objective will carry significant impact on employment and economic growth at large, and increase women’s economic participation, scaling up their independence, and demonstrating their skills and abilities, and putting women on an equal footing with men. Furthermore, entrepreneurial activity has increasingly become one of the key drivers of economic development. An increased rate of entrepreneurial activities among women,

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Effectiveness of Interpretation in Graphic Design: سحر علي سرحان
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The interpretation is one of the means used to by the designer to construct his perceptions of the world in which he lives, either to better understand or rediscover or reproduce the new thing and the creative thing which is characterized by novelty and originality. The design innovations in the political posters, achieved by the designer, result from his perceptions for the response towards a certain subject through what he has of practical experience to interpret his ideas and his desire to achieve harmony with the reality and compatibility with his aims in visible visual effects that will be established in the recipient's memory and stimulate his senses in the realization of the content of the media message. The political poster has a

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Effect of Orgnizational Learning in gnizational Effectifness: An Applied Study
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The purpose of this study is testing the effect of orgnizational learning in orgnizational Effectivness an applied study in Al-hiqma Jordinan Medecine Company . study sosiety 88 manegers sleect 80 of them .study used SPSS to test the hypothesis.study reachs to significant conculctions

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring response human capital to investment in elements
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        This aim research of this  discussion impact of investment in human capital dimensions (training, education, knowledge management, skills development) and its components (knowledge, skills, abilities, value) with the Office of the Inspector General's staff - Ministry of Culture in Iraq, has depended questionnaire as a tool in the collection data and information ,subjected to a measure of validity and reliability, and distributed to a sample of (63) individuals were distributed in positions (director, director of the Division of employees) have been analyzed data search using ready-statistical software (SPSS) the used hypothesis testing and correlati

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 24 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Factors Strategic Choice and Impact at Quality of Higher Education
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This research raised the strategic selection factors and dimensions of the quality of higher education and what the nature of their relationship and has been collecting a sample search from the technological University of president scientific departments and administrative and scientific associates and chiefs of branches This research aims at studying factors affecting the strategic selection effects these factors in the quality of higher education and the combination of these factors has been identified as a group of selected dimensions of quality of higher education and study link relationships and affecting factors and strategic selection of (risk, previous strategies, resources, time, considerations and internal trends) and d

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 06 2019
Journal Name
دار الضياء للطباعة والتصميم
موسوعة الدراسات العاملية في المجال الرياضي ( الجزء الثاني )
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أن الكتاب في مجال الاختبارات والقياس والإحصاء الرياضي والذي صيغ بطريقة مبسطة وعلى وفق الفعالية التي تم تناولها بالبحث والدراسة سواء أكانت الدراسة في الجانب البدني أو المهاري أو الوظيفي للعبة أو تبحث في المواصفات الجسمية من ناحيتي القياسات والأدلة الجسمية وكل بصورة منفردة ، أو بصورة دراسة مركبة من ناحية تناول القياسات الجسمية مع المتغيرات البدنية لفعالية ما على سبيل المثال وتناولهما في دراسة واحدة أو تناول

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 27 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Verbal joint in the Holy Quran A descriptive analytical study
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The research paper talks about one of the topics that deals with one of the high-style styles in the Holy Qur’an that carries with it a high and influential style in directing the Qur’anic context, as the verses are singled out with certain words, each of which came out to other meanings, which is what was called in the past “what the wording agreed and the meaning differed Or the so-called “faces and analogues” and the meaning of analogues in the language and the Qur’an; To mention a word in a place and it means a meaning other than the other, and to interpret each word with a meaning other than the other meant by the faces, and accordingly the goal of the research is in the linguistic significance, in order to reveal the tr

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 03 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
أثر برنامج تنموي في الاستعداد الكتابي لطفل الروضة
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مشكلة البحث وآهميته :

تعد مرحلة ما قبل المدرسة من المراحل شديدة الأهمية في نمو الأطفال في هذه المرحلة تمتد رغبة الطفل في التعرف على العالم المحيط به ثم تتطور أنشطته لتصبح أكثر عمقا وأتساعا فتتضمن البيئة البعيدة عنه ، هذا فضلا على أن 50% من التنمية الذهنية للطفل تتشكل في السنوات الأربع الأولى من العمر وأن القراءة هي إحدى المكونات الأساسية التي تعززهذا الجانب من التنمية .

( أبو

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Features of misleading thought in Quranic discourse and methods of confronting it
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Research summary

The Quranic discourse focused on a lot of vocabularies that carry goals that help man to acquire good, according to a methodology relies on adopting lofty ideas and values. The individual towards society, and the responsibility of society towards the individual. In our present age, the Muslim individual lives in a state of confrontation with deviant ideas, which unfortunately possess the means that make their impact great on society. The study concluded that the Holy Quran contains indicators and determinants of misguided and deviant thought, Which must be avoided because of the seriousness of its effects. Religion, in its general sense, represents a culture that transcends the limits of human ins

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