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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
قراءة في المصدر واسم المصدر على وفق الاستعمال
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   What linguists mentioned about the infinitive and its use in the linguistic levels of speech, whether with its verb, or what was mentioned in the difference between the infinitive and the noun of the source, are matters that are related to the phenomenon of hearing in speech, a need necessitated by the nature of the linguistic law

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2014
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Ibn Habib al-Maliki and his views     Jurisprudence      In the book of marriage
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Allah the Almighty has honored many of his slaves in the high houses for their efforts in building the scientific edifice of this nation, by demonstrating what is needed from the legal provisions for all the relations between them, and the actions that they emanate from. The tasks of the abbreviations and Almstsot, and deposited in the mabahith after various investigations and precious precious matters and showed all the human needs in his life and what is expected to happen, even on the rarest possibilities, and their efforts that left the nation on the cases of Goliath. , And Ask They are in Dar dignity with the best creatures and make us a share of those good things, and Odamna to obey Him and His pleasure until death, and forgive us

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Test the effectiveness of transactional and transformational leadership in the Egyptian Environment
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       The present study aims to test a range of hypotheses about the effectiveness of each of the theory of transactional leadership, and the theory of transformational leadership in the Egyptian environment, and to identify any of them are better able to predict the effectiveness of leadership. And after the effect will be to identify the quality of the relationship between the leader and the subordinate in leadership , and what is the role of transformational leadership dimensions influencing the effectiveness of leadership. The field study was conducted on a sample of companies' public and private sector and the government in Egypt. The results of the study resulted in experimental that transacti

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Relationship Between Using Diverse Materials to the Intellectual Context's in the Art of Contemporary Ceramic
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The use of different materials in the art of ceramics is considered a new form of contemporary philosophical trends. That was introduced to art as a result of societal changes and transformations and rapid technological development. And it plays a very essential part in the beauty of the artistic structure. The contrast of using different materials in ceramics is considered a part of the old historical achievements since the art of ceramics used to follow strict standards. Which does not apply to contemporary ceramic, Because recently, it has become free from any religious and social control and created a whole new intellectual context, heading to new horizons in which it works with the newly added materials as a strategy to ensure the a

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Natural Consideration of Dairy Products in Baghdad Governorate
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The purpose of this research its study of Natural Consideration that contributed in turning of Dairy products in Baghdad Governorate , this subject deal with centered geographical location in the midlle of Iraq ,it’s also main market in discharge and marketing to rest of Iraqi’s governorate pointed to it’s an active role in localized of it’s factory(milk ,cheese,cream ,butter, yoghurte)and it’s constant ,thus distributedin all district of Baghdad ,flat governorate surface encourage this industry ,also climate (temperature, wind, (it’s speed and it’s direction) ,rainfull and relative wet) also water resources and it’s influenced that nessacity of production process with important inculclusion that researcher came out throu

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 06 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Topics of Women in the Iraqi Newspaper (Al- Sabah): (Feminist Approach)
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The search tried to achieve a major scientific goal represented by (Knowing the perspective that has been treated through press releases of woman articles in Al- Sabah newspaper), via:

  1. Specifying the rate of woman topics in Al-Sabah newspaper, compared with the other subjects.
  2. Revealing the nature of the topics of the woman that the newspaper dealt with.
  3. Identifying the ID of journalistic-product that dealt with the woman topics.
  4. Knowing the journalistic arts that the woman topics have been treated by.
  5. Standing on the cases which woman topics concentrated on, through Al-Sabah newspaper.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
كتب الخطط في مصر حتى نهاية العصر المملوكي
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Books of plans are a type of writing in Islamic history , its a type of work whose authors have strived to serve as a comprehensive historical encyclopedia, and they focused most of their attention on highlighting the various aspects of the history of Egypt

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 07 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
استراتيجية الاكتشاف الموجه وأثرها في مهارات التواصل الرياضي
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  • Aim of the current research is to know the impact of guided discovery strategy sports communication skills among students in first grade average in mathematics.
  • , Consisted sample of (58) a student from a school Baghdad Rusafa, divided in two groups, one experimental studied according to strategy discovery The second group studied the traditional way, the researchers built search tool (test communication skills sports), and using a number of statistical methods including : -
  • Test (t - test) was used to independent samples to examine the match Mediterranean experimental and control groups and tested Levin (Leven - test
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Parents Role in Social Personality Formation for Children
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Experts of Psychology and education emphasized that childhood is one of the most important stages in the formation of human personality, and the most influential in his public life, especially the stage in which he lives within his family, which must provide him with the requirements of healthy growth of physical, emotional, moral and social. Emotional-social connection of the child to his family, is especially important in determining the characteristics of his social character, in accordance with the norms and values ​​prevailing in society. This requires the child to be cared for and cared for, and to deal with him in a healthy social manner. So as to achieve positive growth and harmony in the process of social control in internal

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
غربة غربة الشعراء المشردين وحنينهم في العصر الجاهلي
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Alienation, and Westernization and away, whether forcibly sense exile or voluntary in the sense of migration, it will generate nostalgia, and a sense of overwhelming homesickness spatial or alienation spiritual (emotional) and perhaps alienation resulting from exile or forced deportation by the authority

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