تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The paper is concerned with a linguistic analysis of the blurbs, used in advertising English and Arabic novels. A blurb is an advertising persuasive text, written on the back cover of a book. Blurbs of selected novels are chosen as representative examples. The selected blurbs belong to two languages, Arabic and English. The paper aims at studying the linguistic features that are characteristic of blurbs as advertising texts and making a sort of comparison between English blurbs and Arabic ones. A linguistic analysis on four levels is presented. Blurbs are tackled from the point of view of four linguistic disciplines that are phonology, syntax, semantics and discourse analysis. A reference is made to the linguistic featu
... Show MoreTaliban has returned to the forefront since regaining control of Afghanistan in mid-August 2021, prompting the international community and researchers to speculate whether it has adopted a different political vision and ideology from its previous rule (1996-2001). The previous rule presented a distorted version of governance that lacked clear political and ideological foundations, characterized by impulsive and chaotic decisions, and the absence of a comprehensive theoretical and intellectual framework for governance.
Once again, Taliban returned to power on August 15, 2021, and took control of the country. This raised many questions about Taliban's return, the extent of its flexibility and adaptability that allowed the movement t
... Show Moreנסיון השביה בספרות המלחמה העברית יותר מביעה למרחק בסיכולוגי אצל הלוחם העברי ,
אני מעמד מול הנושא הזה , כי אני כותב בהמחקר הזה נסיון השבוי והשפעתו בציור הדמות אצל
הסופר '' יזהר סמילנסקי ) 1916 – 2006 ( " , סופר עברי יליד ישראל , נודע בכינוי תספרותי '' ס .
יזהר " מחשובי היצורים בספרות דור הפלמ''ח בפרט ובספרות העברית והכללית . חתן פרס ישראל
לספרות לשנת ) 1959 ( – כידד הגשם דמות ה '' אני '' וה '' אנחנו '' לגלה את ספל השבוי היחיד כ
LA TRANSGRESSION CHEZ RIMBAUD Lecture de I' aspect de Transgression dans Marine
The theory of probabilistic programming may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, production and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable
... Show MoreThis research paper looks to put its hands on sufi symbols which are applied by the algerian poet د abdallah hammadi د in his poetical works . the symbols it relies on are : ( symbolisme of wine . symbolisme of light . symbolisme of night . sufisme and nature , femal symbols ) .
From these symbols we try to show its range of ability to apply it , with trying to determine its meaningful , dimensions .
The research attempts to identify the pattern of punctuation in contemporary Iraqi poetry through delving into the poetry of an Iraqi poet belonging to the seventieth generation, Namik Abdul Deeb, who belongs to the poets of Arab modernity in general, the research has reached many results, including that the signs of deletion were vocabulary marks any They are located in the center of the poetic singular, or inline markers, which are those that fall within the poetic line of the prose poem separating its vocabulary, or cross-sectional marks located within the poetic passages that are part of the poetic text, and finally text marks which are located within the poetic text and fragmented into Parts. The research also found that the work of
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Alienation, and Westernization and away, whether forcibly sense exile or voluntary in the sense of migration, it will generate nostalgia, and a sense of overwhelming homesickness spatial or alienation spiritual (emotional) and perhaps alienation resulting from exile or forced deportation by the authority
ABSTRACT The importance and objectives of the study were an attempt to understand the methodology of disseminating radical thought and the reasons of social acceptability that make young people embrace this thought. It also sheds light on the impact of this phenomenon on the regional role of Egypt and examines the strategic means and standards that the Egyptian state focuses on in immunization and prevention of extremism.
The role of the Abbasid Caliphate in strengthening the business with the Indian subcontinent and development. Came upon Baghdad and the shift of succession to Iraq in the forefront of efforts made by the Abbasids to revive the trade with Eastern countries, given that the commercial was targeted among other factors,'s location in Iraq amid the ancient world among the countries of Turk