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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Philosophy of Organizational Forgetting In Frame of Learning and Organizational knowledge
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current research aims to build an intellectual framework for concept of organizational forgetting, which is considered one of the most important topics in contemporary management thought, which is gain the consideration of most scholars and researchers in field of organizational behavior, which is to be a loss of intentional or unintentional knowledge of any organizational level. It turned out that just as organizations should learn and acquire knowledge, they must also forget, especially knowledge obsolete and worn out. And represented the research problem in the absence of Arab research dealing with organizational forgetting, and highlights the supporting infrastructure core, and show a close relationship with organizational le

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Employ the Knowledge Accumulation of Human Resources in Strategic Performance
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The main purpose of this research is to diagnose the role of the Knowledge Accumulation of Human Resources KAHR in Strategic Performance SP, and for that, the research was applied to the represented sample by the administrative leaders consisting of (108) individuals distributed according to their positions and the organizational structure of the ministry. Correlations, effects, and benefits from generalizing the results in the field of research. The research involved a mixed-methods approach through two stages. During the first stage, the researcher gathered quantitative data from a questionnaire. The second stage gathered qualitative data to explore the survey results more deeply by conducting individual interviews with a sub-sample of

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Stylistic Development in the Crafts of the Sculptor Mohammed Ghani Hikmat
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The present study aims at examining the stylistic development in the crafts of the sculptor Mohammed Ghani Hikmat. It gives answers to the following two questions: what is the nature of the stylistic development? And what are these principles and techniques led him to this development? The researcher has used the descriptive, analytic approach in examining the selected five samples out of the sculptor’s displayed crafts. The observational technique is used as a tool of examination. Among the main findings are: integrating space in the cubic crafts, represented by the existence of holes within this general construction of that space; the evident influence of critical contemporary orientations through the direct insertion of recipients i

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Role socialization family erroneous and its impact on criminal behavior
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The correct and sincere process of socialization is working on appropriate social climate in
which this process is the provision, and the climate is achieved in the presence of a positive
environment free of negatives and contradictions, but when there is a socialization processes
inadequate and contradictory was not based on the principles of punishment and reward nor a
balance between methods soft and intensity of treatment and interaction with small and
adolescent does not require intensive social care formulas do not create the conditions
essential items required by the successful and effective socialization, the young and the young
people who are going through in such Altanisah and educational operations will be

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Term Delay and its Jurisprudences in the Section of Punishments and Felonies
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Different Arabic and Islamic societies are free of evil instincts. Therefore, certain provisions of legitimacy came to stress the importance of the intentions of sharia to achieve the interests of all people that involve several aspects, including the five fundamental things: religion, oneself, offspring, mind and money. Almighty Allah has specified certain punishments on those who violate these things by imposing punishments on the part of the criminal to preserve souls. He imposes the penalty of theft to preserve property, the Hadd punishment for adultery to preserve the symptoms, the punishment on the drunk to preserve the mind, and the Hadd punishment for the apostate to preserve the religion. By the adherence to these punishments li

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 08 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
Aesthetic visual discourse and the audio system in theatrical performance
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Technologies of the theatre show elements get great transferring concerning the creative embodiment of its aesthetic elements including its raws, forms, parts and masses in an attempt to achieve the prin cipal expressive progress to embody the main theme of the idea and the intended subject .
This is within the criterion of supporting the way to deal with technologies (décor elements , lighting music tones vocal affects , fashion and makeup) that achieving the emagintional appropriate atmosbheres which the writer and the director of the theatre show aim to make it present and succeed by furming active participation tunches of the ability of the cinogra . phic – element dsigners in order to invlve the theatre space atmospheres in cl

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
دور شبكات التواصل الاجتماعي في ثورات الربيع العربي
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دور شبكات التواصل الاجتماعي في ثورات الربيع العربي

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 16 2020
Journal Name
مجلة حمورابي
انعكاسات تطور القوة المعلوماتية الامريكية في البيئة الداخلية
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The global globalization the world is experiencing has enabled international actors—states, international governmental and non-governmental organizations, such as liberation movements, international social movements, and even terrorist organizations—to use cyber power to achieve their goals. Therefore, this study discusses the impact of information power on the domestic environment of the United States.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الإضاءة في مسرح الطفل تصميم مفترض لمسرحية (الحاسوب)
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Developed technologies and complementary means for viewing theater through the ages, and they affected would improve and get better. Valsinogravea appeared to express a description and identification of existing in the theatrical space of lighting and decorative structure architecture, and the lighting of the elements that have contributed since ancient times in the process of the show, and played a significant role in strengthening the relationship between the recipient and actor and presentation theater as a whole scenes, working to broadcast a dramatic speech theatrical holds ideas and content and symbols and semantics affect the spectator of different age, particularly the child viewer, that little spectator who represent the

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of The Organizational Agility On High Performance ( Applied Search )
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Abstract

The current research aims to know  the  reality of the  research's coefficients, to know  correlation and effectiveness  between  the  organizational  Agility  and high performance . The current research  has been applied on  the official banks , including  a sample of  senior administration  members  (120) ; besides , the research has used questionnaire  that being considered as the main tool for gathering  information  and data . It includes  59 questions  in addition to  the personal interviews  program  as to support  the questionnaire and to fulfill a great deal of reality. It has been anal

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