تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
research summary
Praise be to Allah، and prayers and peace be upon His Messenger and His chosen one، his family، companions and his family and his family.
After that، this is a study on the question of the claim، as one of the controversial questions that are the mainstay of debates، and I looked at it: the limit of the question of the claim، its importance، its impact، its aspects of corruption، its sections، and the representation of its sections of the fundamentalist controversy;
The research was according to the following plan:
Introduction، in which she mentioned: the importance of the research topic and the reason for its selection، its questions، its l
... Show MoreSomal is considered one of the unstable and restless African Arabian country in
comparison with other Arabian. It has been exposed to division and separation by
European colonization process that worked hardly on dividing this country according to
Berlin conference (1884-1885). Even after obtaining its independence during the sixties
and being led by civilian organizations which were unable to solve the problems of
Somalian society after obtaining the independence.
Somal continued its suffering even after the military rule under the leadership of
Mohammed Sayad Beree.
During Beree's rule, Somal suffered from the War with Ethiopia, as well as it
witnessed an economical Crisis. It suffered also from the tribal po
The social support is considered one of the most important constituents of
society and the one which can ensure its unity.
The resources of social support are different accordind to the variety and
the multiplication of the net – work of the social relationships that are
established among the individuals. The importance of this variable is evident
in the emolional adaptation and the mental health as well as its role in mitigating of the illness threating and in accelerating the recovery. social support can enhance the individuals ability to tolerate and face the emotional
and physical problems in the time of cris and stressful life conditions.
The most important results are shown as follows :
1- It was
The importance of the heritage of the Iraqi heavy symbolism and connotations where contacted habits rights and beliefs from antiquity to the present, in addition to being represented with data aesthetic it is an expression philosophical concepts associated implications incentives cultural aesthetic of the content of the intellectual including contents of semantics and symbols and the dimensions of the meanings Sayings , to turn form a legacy popularly moving window to communicate worth studying its details and search function on the character and identity and origins . Where have emerged in recent years, a phenomenon characterized by inventing new designs by modernist styles that have entered into technical system design and effectivenes
... Show Moreيركز البحث على قصائد ماكسيمس للشاعر جارلس اولسن.تعتبر هذه القصائد ابداع غير تقليدي ونادر حيث استطاع الشاعر من خلالها ان ياخذ القارىء في عمليه مستمرة لشخصية واحدة في مكان واحد وهو جلوسستر.ان قصائد ماكسيمس مقسمة الى ثلاث مجلدات تقرأ كقصيدة واحدة . تقرأ هذه السلسلة من القصائد بسياق شخصي وسياسي ووجداني. تركز الدراسة على فكرة الوقت والمكان حيث تظهر القصائد بانوراما من المناظر الطبيعية والاشخاص والنماذج بصوره مس
... Show MoreThis study took place during the first semester 2006-2007 at the same time the Jordanian universities were getting ready to receive the American team sent by QAA to check out the defects in the educational system of these universities, the researchers concentrated on the practical study more the than the theoretical study, the theoretical study covered the understanding of quality & quality in education as well as the authorities responsible for the regulations & quality standards such as QAA ,JMOHE, Al-Hussein Fund For Excellence. The main problem which faced the Jordanian private universities was the conflict in objectives between profitability & qualitative output which was because of lack of long tem strategic plann
... Show Moreان تقدير مسؤولية المحاسب في تصميم نظام المعلومات المحاسبي من منظور تاريخي سبقت استخدام الحاسوب كأداة معلوماتية للاعمال، لما له من رؤيا بالتطورات الرئيسية لنظام المعلومات والتي اهمها تحديد متطلبات مستخدمي المعلومات وتعيين مضمون وشكل مخرجات النظام من التقارير وتحديد مصادر البيانات وانتقاء القواعد المحاسبية الملائمة فضلاً عن الرقابة الضرورية لتكامل وفاعلية النظام.
ان النظم المحاسبية التقليدية غالبا
... Show MoreThanks and gratefulness be to Allah , the most merciful , and prayers be on his messenger and our prophet mohammed and his descendants.The voices have great influence on the diversity of methods of complaints and implication in the Qur'anic expression through
their inspiration , forms and notes. They also have influence on performing semantic and psychological condition of the emitter . that is because of the connection between the complaints and human behavior and emotions , since it is considered as the outlet by which the human expresses his repressed desired and instincts . he resorted to it " when he is helpless physically and mentally i.e. he cannot reach his goals or satisfy his needs." Complaints come from deprivation , social
According to Bowens Family systems theory self – differentiation defiance as a
construct that consists of two interrelated abilities : the first is an intrapsychic
ability to distinguish between the thoughts and feelings , and an inter personal
ability to maintain connections with others while achieving an autonomous self .
The present research concerned in testing the hypothesis of marital similarity
(people married persons with the same level of self – differentiation).
The present research aimed to:
1. Measures self – differentiation of university officers .
2. Measures self - differentiation of sample husbands' .
3. Measures self - differentiation of sample wives .
4. Acquaint to the relation betwe
In her poetry, Carol Ann Duffy looks into the concerns of the disregarded and humiliated people. Approaching facts fearlessly and disclosing realities in a way highly characteristic of her, she establishes the world newly and reframes it honestly. This research shows how Duffy reframes the world in her own peculiar terms, starting with her own creative use of the language, in particular, when the forms of things of the world are distorted, thus our perception of things will be reframed too.
As regards relations among people, the research elucidates how Duffy’s strained characters abandon real life and reframe an eccentric way of living, while respecting faith, wherein Duffy notices that religious rituals confine the intellect, she r