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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon May 06 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Designing Teaching Aids and Their Effects on Learning and Retaining Diving and Cartwheel on Floor Exercises in Women’s’ Artistic Gymnastics
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Designing Teaching Aids and Their Effects on Learning and Retaining Diving and Cartwheel on Floor Exercises in Women’s’ Artistic Gymnastics

The research aimed at designing teaching aids that develop and help retain diving and cartwheel for third year college of physical education and sport sciences students in women’s artistic gymnastics. In addition to that, the researchers aimed at identifying the effect of these aids on learning and retaining cartwheel and diving in floor exercises. The researchers used the experimental method. The subjects were (20) third year female students from the college of physical education and sport sciences/ university of Baghdad sections K and H. the main experiment lasted for

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of international auditing standard (320) of materiality in defining the analytical procedures of the auditor: Applied research in the Iraqi company for seed production
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The study seeks to clarify the role of International Auditing Standard No. (320) of the relative importance in determining responsibility for planning and implementing the process of auditing financial statements and expressing neutral technical opinion through the analytical procedures of the auditor, whose responsibility is to obtain appropriate and reliable audit evidence that helps the auditor to form a general conclusion about whether The financial statements were consistent with the auditor's understanding of the entity. The relative importance contributes to defining the important accounts that help to set priorities for the auditor to set the necessary analytical procedures for these accounts. One of the most important co

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Analysis of Verbs Forms in Sa’eed Faeeq’s Short Story: Cloud in the Sky: Sait Faik'in "Havada Bulut" Adlı Hikayesinde Fiil Kiplerinin İncelenmesi.
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This research paper which is entitled “Analysis of Verbs Forms in Sa’eed Faeeq’s Short Story: Cloud in the Sky” deals with the forms of verbs (i.e., kinds of tenses and suffix analysis). It is one of the applied studies. Verbs are basic elements in Turkish sentences. Their function is to state the predicate which is a sentential essential part. Verbs denote sentence construction, action and formal aspects. Forms are added to the base of verbs in the Turkish language giving the verbs their final structures. Such structures are set in a distinct planned way. The verbs used in the Turkish language which are distinguished by one of these forms are known as simple tense verbs.

Sait Faik'in ( "Havada Bulut" adlı Hikayesinde Fi

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of performance appraisal dimensions On organization confidence
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This research was designed to study effect of performance appraisal dimensions on organizational confidence.

Asset completion questionnaire was used to collect data of this research from a random simple represent forty employees who works in Iraqi Oil ministry. The main result of this research was positive relations and the effect between performance appraisal and organizational confidence. The research contains some conclusions, the main of it is unimplemented the performance appraisal results in the policies of employees in the ministry and it work in classic methods incentives and training.

The important recommendations must doing to achieve integrating between the result of pe

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The impact of discrete realization strategy in the development of reflective thinking among students of Qur'an and Islamic education departments for the course of Islamic jurisprudence
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The paper aims to identify the impact of discrete realization strategy in the development of reflective thinking among students: (males/females) of Qur'an and Islamic education departments for the course of Islamic jurisprudence according to the variability of sex. The researcher used the experimental approach and adopted an experimental determination with a set part of the two groups (experimental and controlled). He selected the sample deliberately which consists of (147) students spread over four classes (experimental males/ experimental females/ controlled males/ controlled females), and it took last for an academic year of (2010-2011). He, then, prepared a post test to measure the reflective thinking with his five skills (skill of o

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 20 2026
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
تاثير تمرينات اللعب بمساحات مختلفة في تطوير التحمل الخاص في دقة اداء بعض المهارات الاساسية للاعبي كرة القدم الشباب
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مستخلص البحث أهمية البحث عن طريق إعداد برنامج تدريبي يعتمد هذه الطريقة التدريبية في تطوير التحمل الخاص عن طريق العمل على بناء مستوى جيد من التحمل الخاص لدى اللاعبين الشباب في مرحلة الإعداد الخاص, تحقيق نتائج جيدة على مستوى أداء الواجبات المهارية والخططية المطلوبة منه في أثناء زمن المباراة, حيث ارتأت الباحثة من خلال إعداد برنامج تدريبي إلى رفع مستوى (التحمل الخاص) لدى لاعبي كرة القدم وبالتالي يمكنها أن تساع

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Educational Program on Nurses’ Knowledge About Communication Skills with Children at Welfare Children Teaching Hospital in Baghdad City
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Background: Therapeutic communication is the basis of interactive relationships among nursing team and their children: that affords opportunities to establish rapport, understand the client’s experience, formulate individualized or client interventions and optimize health care resources.

Objectives: The main aim of the study is to determine the Effectiveness of Education Program on Nurses’ Knowledge about Communication Skills with Children.

Methodology: A quasi-experimental study was conducted in Children Welfare Teaching Hospitals from 7th, October 2018 to the 20th, May 2019. The program and instruments have been constructed by the researcher for the purpose of the study. A non- prob

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of strategic Agility in organizational excellence In Ministry of Construction, Housing, Municipalities and Public Works
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The aim of this research is to identify the role of strategic agility achieving organizational excellence in one of the formations of the Ministry of Municipalities (Dhi Qar Sewage Directorate), as important service organizations that have a key role in serving and developing the society which faced many administrative challenges and issues and as a result of the changes in the environment is continuing and accelerating, so the adoption of modern administrative concepts such as strategic Agility and knowledge of their role in achieving organizational excellence can help them in facing these changes and achieve what they aspire to. In order to achieve research objectives, two main hypotheses have been formulated. The first hypothe

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of strategic thinking in human resource management strategies “Analytical field study of the views of a sample of managers in the Iraqi Ministry of Health”
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The researcher attempts to diagnose the level of the effect  of strategic thinking skills (intuition, meditation, creativity) of the managers in the Ministry of Health in Iraq and some of its institutions in the formulation of human resources management: (selection, training, incentivence , performance appraisal (Recognizing the importance of the subjects studied, and because of the importance of the expected results of th

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Cost technique based on ABCII specifications and its effect in the Implementation of contracting contracts: Applied research in Al-Mansour general company for construction contracting
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The problem of research was to identify after the use of cost technology based on specifications in the validity of determining and measuring the costs of the implementation of contracting, by applying to al-Mansour General Construction Contracting Company as an appropriate alternative to the traditional costing system currently adopted, which is characterized by many shortcomings and weaknesses Which has been reflected in the validity and integrity of the calculations. To solve this problem, the research was based on the premise that: (The application of cost technology based on specifications will result in calculating the cost of the product according to the specification required by the customer, to meet his wishes properly and witho

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