Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
مجلة كامبريدج للبحوث العلمية
انعدام اثر العقد دراسة في القانون الفرنسي
...Show More Authors

يعد العقد من اهم مصادر الالتزام كونه الوسيلة الفاعلة التي يمكن من خلالها المتعاقد التحقق من مصالحه واهدافه مادامت لا تتعارض مع النظام العام ، ومتى مانشأ صحيحاً وفقاً للاركان والشروط التي يتطلبها القانون اصبح ملزماً لكلا طرفيه ، بحيث يخضعان بموجبه لقوة العقد ، وقد لا ينعقد وفقاً للسياق السابق بسبب عدم استكماله لشروط صحته فينعدم اثره بين المتعاقدين او الغير ، وتلك هي فكرة البحث .

Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
جمالية جمالية المكان في الرسم العربي الإسلامي
...Show More Authors

The God Almighty prefer on the Arab nation, and entrusted to carry his message to the secular world as a whole, , gave her all necessities of life in terms of location, who are the heart in the earth's surface. From this blessed place emerged the greatest civilizations and the world has ever known for it than in human history, a four empires Alsamyat

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The effect of the significance of the Qur'anic context in the allocation of the year
...Show More Authors

Acting on the Holy Qur’an by contemplating its meanings, stopping at its commands and prohibitions, and everything in it that guides us to truth and mercy. The Holy Qur’an includes it for various purposes in one verse, and there is no doubt that this is part of the perfection of this great book, and one of the sciences of the fundamentalists is the indication of the context, and it is a great science of high rank, and it is one of the most important things that lead to the correct understanding of the miraculous and decisive book of God Almighty, and one of the best meanings of the Qur’an It was not from the context of the verses, and from here it can be said that the indication of the context is one of the origins of deriving lega

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The general budget and censorship on it in Iraqi legislation
...Show More Authors

The main idea of the financial censorship is to submit the states funds to a censorship because they are the funds of the people and because this censorship is a right and role ensured by the constitution for specific devices in the state, thus the role of the financial censor should be launched to achieve this goal in all walks of the state. • The power of this censorship depends basically on the independence of the censorious bodies over a job which is submitted to this censorship and the censor should have a reverence , this censorship is practiced as a precautionary procedure before preparing the budget to avoid mistakes after and during the execution for maintaining the states funds. • The importance of the censorship comes from

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Nov 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
النزعة النزعة العلمية في الفكر الفلسفي الإسلامي
...Show More Authors

This research is an attempt to prove the scientific tendency in the Islamic philosophical heritage through a review of the most important ideas of intellectual and philosophical theories brought by the philosophers of this

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Jan 07 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
سياسة سياسة الخلفاء العباسيين في المجال الزراعي
...Show More Authors

       سار العباسيون على نفس النهج الذي كان عليه الأمويين في كثير من الانظمه والتقاليد والسياسات على الرغم من إن الدولة العباسية كانت تمثل بداية لعصر جديد في تاريخ الإسلام(1)،ومن تلك الأنظمة التي ورثوها عن الأمويين  وطوروها هي اهتمامهم بالنظام الزراعي منذ بداية قيام دولتهم وهنا سنحاول تقديم بعض الانجازات

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Jul 22 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE EFFECT OF FASHIONISTA ON FEMALE BODY IMAGE
...Show More Authors

The research aims to reveal the relationship between the use of social networking sites and the image that females make about their physical formation, the nature of the effects, their value judgments about the image of their bodies, their attitudes toward plastic surgery, the most important types of these processes for them, their motivations to conduct them, and the cultural pressures they are exposed to. The study, moreover, investigates in the effects of those plastic surgery on their behavior as active and interacting users with what is published on social media, according to the theory of social comparison. This paper is an attempt to understand the pattern of social networking

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Ruling on dealing with Jews in Muslim countries
...Show More Authors

Praise be to God, who is satisfied with Islam as our religion, “He opened a clear conquest for us,” and whoever works with us through the Shari’ah works and protects us. And that our master and Mawlana Muhammad His servant and Messenger is a prophet who has been merciful and compassionate. "
And after:
The occupation of Iraq and the accompanying bone events, and the following severe obstacles, resulted in a set of problems that require legitimate stances, and satisfactory answers, remove confusion and delusion, amid the clash of opinions and contradictions of jurisprudence. Work and application.
Among the difficult problems that surfaced in light of the new political developments on the land of Iraq: (the ruling on dealing

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Mar 19 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Diplomatic work and its importance in foreign policy planning
...Show More Authors

That the diplomatic work and its importance in foreign policy planning assumes the following points: 1. Choosing the tool in the sense of choosing the most correct tool that reflects the reality of the situation on the one hand and the disposal of strong energy to reach the implementation of the political decision. The declaration of war and entering into a resolution that uses force merely to face insulting ambassadors does not mean Power of the State concerned. But an imbalance in its foreign policy. 2. The coordination of the tools, that the foreign policy scheme must be such a role, and on the external style, diplomatic work, military action and propaganda must complement each other, to the extent that each of them is the first attac

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2014
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The sale of adultery wisdom and pictures      In Islamic law
...Show More Authors

The research came in order to take note of the types of inscription and to clarify its provisions and to show some of the possibilities of Islamic law in the sales side and its ability to influence in Islamic markets, and to achieve the required level and appropriate of the transactional results by activating them in economic life, and give a clear picture of the performance of selling in the law and the possibility of applying one of Its uses in this aspect, and enable them to take advantage of the method of explicitly sell without the injustice of others as one of those useful sales uses.

View Publication Preview PDF