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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
مجلة جامعة الامام جعفر الصادق(ع ) للدراسات القانونية
حق العمل والتوظيف لذوي الاعاقة في ضوء الاتفاقيات الدولية والتشريعات العراقية
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يُعدّ الأشخاص ذوو الإعاقة أكبر أقلية في العالم وأكثرها حرمانًا، حيث تشير الإحصاءات إلى أن نحو مليار شخص، أي ما يعادل 15% من سكان العالم، يعانون من بعض أشكال الإعاقة، مع تزايد معدلاتها في البلدان النامية. وتشير الدراسات العلمية إلى أن ذوي الإعاقة قادرون على مزاولة العمل بإتقان ومثابرة، بل وقد تتفوق مهاراتهم أحيانًا على مهارات الأشخاص غير المعاقين، إذا تم اختيار العمل المناسب لقدراتهم ومواهبهم. كما أن حق العمل

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 17 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE RESPONSIBILITY OF INDEPENDENT IRAQI NEWSPAPERS IN PROMOTING THE VALUES OF CITIZENSHIP AND NATIONAL BELONGING IN THE SOCIETY: (An Analytical Study in the Opinion Articles in the Newspapers of Al-Sabah Al-Jadeed and Al-Mada)
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The research problem stems from a chief question: “What is the nature of the responsibility that «Al-Sabah Al-Jadeed» and «Al-Mada» Newspapers have undertaken in promoting the values of citizenship and national belonging in the society? The research aims to achieve a number of goals, including: Determining the most prominent themes that were emphasized in the opinion articles in these two newspapers within the framework of the responsibility of promoting the values ​​of citizenship and national belonging in society, and revealing the most prominent topics that were discussed in opinion articles in the two sample newspapers regarding the promotion of the mentioned values. This research is a desc

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 24 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
تحديد مقترحات لحل مشكلة السكن العشوائي دراسة تحليلية لمدينة بغداد للفترة من 2003-2008
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Use of GIS to study spatial analysis of the migration of nineveh governorate residents for the period 2014-2017
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The Migration is one of the important dynamic population movement phenomena in population studies because of its great impact in changing many demographic characteristics between the region of origin and arrival. And the multiplicity of forms and types according to the different reasons for it and the motives that prompted the population to move, as well as the currents and their size are also different according to the different causes, and here there are many types of migration, and many of them have been studied at the local and regional levels, and as long as the population is in a continuous dynamic movement, other types of migration are generated. (Al Douri, 2015, 230)          &nbs

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Problem of International Finance and Efficiency of Local Savings in Financing for Development in Algeria: Standard study for the period (1970-2014)
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      The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment, or rather the efficiency of domestic savings in financing development in Algeria, in order to explain this relationship, identify the challenges to investment, and finance and accelerate economic growth. The economic measurement methodology has estimated the relationship between the savings rate and the local investment rate in the Algerian economy. We have annual data for the period 1970-2014. One of the most important conclusions is that there is no relationship between savings and investment, nor even an integration between them. To illustrate this, the use of some statistical tools, a

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of financial investments using financial indicators Applied in the Middle East Bank of Iraq for investment For the fiscal period 2007-2009
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The research explain the analysis of finance investments through  analyze the finance tables for commercial banks, by using the pointers to indicate the limits of economical benefit for these investments, and fix the negative deviations and as well positive, for the purpose of  diagnostic the negative (disadvantage) and develop the advantage deviation, For the importance of finance investments in the development operation and economical growth, further to that the finance investments is represent one of the most activities in the commercial banks in which aim the adequate incomes as a result of the commercial banks act to receipt the banks deposits and then make it growth and develop through  commercial advantage o

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of economic factors on the appearance of unequal costs and rationalization of operational decision: An applied research in Wasit State Company for Textile Industries
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There is a set of economic factors that affect the rationalization of decisions on unexploited resources within the economic unit and here determines the problem of the search for the question of what economic factors cause the emergence of asymmetric costs, and aims to identify these factors in the costs of adjustment to resources, change in The size of the activity of the economic unit, the general trend of sales change in the previous period, and the economic level of the country. Rh measure the impact of these factors on economic unity, and taking into consideration the impact when formulating decisions.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات محاسبية ومالية
استخدام نموذج Sherrod في التنبؤ بالفشل المالي في المصارف الخاصة العراقية: دراسة تطبيقية في مصرفي التجاري العراقي والعراقي الاسلامي
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The phenomenon of financial failure is one of the phenomena that requires special attention and in-depth study due to its significant impact on various parties, whether they are internal or external and those who benefit from financial performance reports. With the increase in cases of bankruptcy and default facing companies and banks, interest has increased in understanding the reasons that led to this financial failure. This growing interest should be a reason to develop models and analytical methods that help in the early detection of this increasing phenomenon in recent year . The research examines the use of Sherrod's model in predicting financial failure in Iraqi private banks. The researchers relied on this mathematical model to anal

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using the Sherrod model in predicting financial failure in Iraqi private banks: an applied study in the Iraqi commercial and Iraqi Islamic banks
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Abstract:

              The phenomenon of financial failure is one of the phenomena that requires special attention and in-depth study due to its significant impact on various parties, whether they are internal or external and those who benefit from financial performance reports. With the increase in cases of bankruptcy and default facing companies and banks, interest has increased in understanding the reasons that led to this financial failure. This growing interest should be a reason to develop models and analytical methods that help in the early detection of this increasing phenomenon in recent year   . The research examines the use of

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
التنبؤ بالأحتياجات من أدوية الأمراض المزمنة والمحافظة على المال العام* دراسة تطبيقية في دائرة العيادات الطبية الشعبية
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Abstract                                                                                

The health section is considered to be one of the most important section in the  field of service economical and social unit because of its concern in the life of human begin and society and the  process of determining t

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