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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The effect of differentiated education strategy on the achievement of the students of the Institute of Fine Arts in the subject of aesthetics: وفاء شكر حسن
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Current research targeted: Recognizing the impact of the differentiated education strategy on the achievement of the students of the Institute of Fine Arts / Diyala, for the academic year (2018-2019).
The researcher used the experimental approach designed by two groups (control - experimental) and with a post-test to achieve the goal of the research, and the research sample was chosen from students of the fourth stage for the academic year (2018-2019).
The sample was distributed randomly into two groups, the first experimental consisting of (30) students who studied using the differentiated education strategy, and the second control group consisting of (30) students who studied using the traditional method.
The researcher pre

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Publication Date
Wed May 14 1997
Journal Name
رسالة الماجستير
صورة اليهودي الغربي في الادب القصصي العبري الشرقي دراسة في نتاجات إسحاق شامي وسامي ميخائيل وامنون شاموش
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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using game theory models to determine the profit maximization policies for PepsiCo and Coca Cola in Baghdad
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(Use of models of game theory in determining the policies to maximize profits for the Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola in the province of Baghdad)

Due to the importance of the theory of games especially theories of oligopoly in the study of the reality of competition among companies or governments and others the researcher linked theories of oligopoly to Econometrics to include all the policies used by companies after these theories were based on price and quantity only the researcher applied these theories to data taken from Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola In Baghdad Steps of the solution where stated for the models proposed and solutions where found to be balance points is for the two companies according to the princi

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر استراتيجية لوحة الاختيار (Think-tac-toe ) في تحصيل طالبات الصف الرابع العلمي في مادة علم الاحياء
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The research aims to know the impact of using the strategy (think-tac-toe) in the achievement of Biology subject for female students of fourth grade scientific branch. The research sample consisted of 70female students the of fourth Grade scientific Branch . The students were divide randomly, equally to two groups, experimental and control group. the two groups are equaled in the variable ( intelligence, age, previous information, former achievement of biology subject ) and the strategy applied over the entire semester. built an achievement test and it has been the expense of validity, and the reliability and The psychometric properties, and the data were analyzed statistically by recourse to Statistical package SPSS, the results showed

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship between organizational justice and empowerment and their impact on achieving organizational commitment (field study in the Department of Labor and Vocational Training)
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The research has deal with the relationship between organizational justice and empowerment and their impact on the achievement of organizational commitment in the office of Labour and Vocational Training. To study the research problem which is represented a sense that employees with low levels of organizational justice and empowerment and the reflection on the organizational commitment of the employees, so that Has been collecting data and information relating to research by designing a questionnaire, were distributed to a sample of (50) people in the office mentioned, and the results of the study to confirm the research hypotheses. and the key results of the research was the presence of correlation relationships and the effect o

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Kuwait International Law School Journal
The Duration of the Contract – A Study in Light of French Decree No. 131-2016 Issued on February 10, 2016
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After the Napoleonic Code of 1804 came without any legal rules specific to the duration of the contract, and was content to refer to it in scattered legal texts, Legislative Decree No. 2016-131 came to establish a comprehensive legal system for the duration of the contract, starting from the period of its formation, through the period of its implementation, and ending with its continuation after the expiration of its term, in the third section of the fourth chapter related to the effects of the contract (Articles 1210 - 1215), relying on judicial precedents on the one hand - which are many, as will be shown through the research pages - and contractual practices on the other hand. Perhaps the main motive that prompted the French legislator t

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic leadership and It's Impact on Achieving The Organizational Reputation
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Abstract :

This research aims to examine the correlation and the impact of Strategic leadership on Achieving Organizational in some of establishments in ministry of construction and housing which is under public founds, Starting from the importance of research in public organizations and the importance of these organizations to the community, it is rely descriptive analytical methods in achievement of this research, the research involved board of directors, Data has collected from (92) respondents, represent the respondent society exclusively and comprehensively, it involved the general directors, assistant general directors and heads of department, The research relied programs (Excel 2010, Spss V.21), moreover, some o

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Evaluation Study of the Classroom Activities within the Developed English Course (Flying High) for the High School First- Grade Students in View of Creative Thinking Skills
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The study aims to examine the classroom activities of the developed English course (Flying High) for the high school first-grade students, identify creative thinking skills appropriate for this grade, and show the extent the classroom activities involve these skills from the female- teachers ‘point of view. The study adopted the descriptive survey method. The study community consists of all (50) English female-teachers who teach high school first grade in Arar city during the academic year (1440 -1441 A.H, the first semester). The study was applied to all respondents. The researcher used a questionnaire as a study tool. The study revealed that the female-teachers reported their disagreement and refusal of the classroom activities in th

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The passive of verbs constructed with prepositions: Das Passiv der mit Präpositionen konstruierten Verben
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 Verbs in German and Arabic are of two types: active and passive. Passive voice  is a grammatical voice construction that is found in many languages.  Out of grammatical perspective, each main verb has a form in the active and one in the passive known as a "genus verbi" (type of verb). In passive voice, both in German and in Arabic, the focus is on the action itself or on the result of the action; often the perpetrator is not mentioned. In German, to conjugate verbs in the passive voice, you must know the forms of werden (to become). German uses werden  + the past participle and states it at the end of a sentence. In Arabic,

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Transformational leadership and its role in organizational success An analytical study of the views of a sample of employees at the Faculty of Education, Samarra University
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This research aims to know the role of transformational leadership in the organizational success of the College of Education at Samarra University. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive method in analyzing the research problem. The research included two main hypotheses that resulted in four hypotheses that were subjected to statistical tests. A sample of (54) The researcher used the survey method as a main tool for collecting data and information as well as visits and structured interviews that took place during the period of application. The research reached a set of conclusions and recommendations among the conclusions that there is an art relationship There is a strong and moral impact between transformational lead

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