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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Salah Al-Abad In stating the purposes of belief
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Worshipersrighteousness in declaration of purposes of belief

Laith Salman Dawood

Iraqi Sunni Affairs/Department of Religious and Charity Institutions

Abstract

Praise is to God and Prayers and peace is upon the Messenger of Allah and his family and companions and then:

The research here presents to the question of standing on the purpose of belief and its importance, which corresponds to going into the purposes of the Sharia acts and Worship, which are no less important and perhaps the most important. The health of belief is the only way to correct work and worship. The research first dealt with the definition of the doctrine and its pil

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 05 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
Reading in the Scenery of the performance and its developments
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The importance of this research in studying the actor life existence on the stage through the performance art;where as all the literary theatrical dimensions didn't ignore the importance of the actor's performance.
So, it is shed a light on the nature of the scenery in the actor's performance and what its representations in the temporary directions ……..
The research set off from the imitation as a human instinct to the performance of the actor in post-modernity theater; so the researcher found that there is a question must be answered which is :Is the actor live a regression state in his theatrical performance ,or that the performance of the actor connect with collective conscience of human being which is repeated in certain

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
السرقات في المنظمات والعوامل المؤثرة فيها
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Employee Stealing or internal theft is considered from the passive practices that can’t be denied or be hidden, In spite of the hospital privacy as a serving organization that works 24\7 and deleing with human lives, they weren’t infallible from that kind of practice. To prevent or reduce this practice, it was important to search for the organizational and behavioral factors influencing internal thefts.

   

   The study problem briefly is to reach the most organizational and behavioral factors influencing internal theft, in governmental hospitals in Baghdad Rusafa Health district, this was done by analyzing (20) administrative cases, of thefts occurred in the District, also a sample of (60) sp

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Digital collage in contemporary arts
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The research tagged (Digital Collage in Contemporary Art) consisted of four chapters. The first chapter was devoted to the methodological framework of the research. The problem ended with the following questions: How does digital collage represent contemporary art? What is the variable at the level of meaning shifts in composing works according to the digital collage? Was the digital collage a qualitative leap in the path of the aesthetic pattern in art? How does digital collage interfere with contemporary life and societies? It included the aim of the research and its importance, while the second chapter dealt with two topics, the first (reading in the concept of collage), and the second (digital collage). The third chapter was devoted

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Türkçe'de –Yor Ekinin Kullanışları
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Önsöz

 

Bu tez Türkçe'de -yor ekinin kullanışları başlığını taşımaktadır.

            Bilindiği gibi, bu ek Türkçe'de bir çok sayıda görev ve işlev yüklenebilmektedir. Bu ek Türkiye Türkçesinde en sık kullanılan şimdiki zaman ekidir. Bu ek hem şekil hem zaman ifade eder. Ayrıca da bu ekin çeşitli kullanışları verdır.

            Bu ekle ilgili kaymalar çok açık olup örnekleri de son derece fazladır

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Meaning Surplus in Contemporary Iraqi Sculpture
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The present research is concerned with studying the appearance and essence of meaning in contemporary sculpture by addressing the  problematic how to flow of meaning its multiplicity and the flow of its surplus, resulting from the transformations of the artistic form and the variety  of its methods which results to a new and different strategies in circulation and aesthetic reception to achieve this task, we have relied on models of modern Iraq sculpture, which fit in its form and raw materials with the concept of phenomenon studied. Therefore, the research topic were divided into four axes:- the first axe included an introduction about the subject. The introduction included the problems of research and its importance, aim repr

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Bionic and its reflections in the design of industrial products
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The current research dealt with the development of sciences and arts over the course of human history, and the development of sciences with their natural and human trends are important areas in developing the knowledge and application base for industrial product design and design in its various fields. Bionic science is one of the sciences that works on applying biological methods and systems found in nature to study and design engineering systems and modern technology, and for industrial products to be highly efficient, durable and resistant to natural variables in daily life for use. The transfer of technology between life forms and industrial products is desirable because the processes of development at the level of science in general

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2014
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The testimony of Allah Almighty at Nodal perspective
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It is no secret to every researcher that the choice of a topic for research is not without positive reasons and selected goals, and in this context it seems to me that writing in the subject (testimony of God) is important in many ways; In many places to signify the oneness and sincerity of the Prophet and the prosecution of slaves for their actions in the Hereafter and the control of God Almighty them in the world, which indicates that the subject has to do with the faith and care and orientation towards his study leads to identify the meaning of this testimony and purposes in the context of its receipt and guide to the semantic faces that go to her.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2011
Journal Name
مجلة (كلية التربية الأساسية ) الصادرة عن (كلية التربية الأساسية / الجامعة المستنصرية )،
-الدقائق البلاغية في أطول الآيات القرآنية
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ارتبطت اية الدين بجملة ايات قبلها بشكل يبهر القارئ و يوقفه على ما في القران من رصانة تاليف و احكام بناء و تلاؤم اجزاء معى اكتنازها .دقائق بلاغية كان جلها عائدا الى فنون علم المعاني

Publication Date
Wed Jan 06 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Ultimate Characters For Identity In Contemporary Architecture
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          General propositions have dealt with various indicators and features that frame and describe basic architectural concepts, and from those concepts, the concept of identity will be presented here, which represents the nerve of intellectual vision of the state of architecture development, transformation and change. Due to its deep intellectual basis, it was necessary to study multiple features, especially the achievement feature that was considered a major stage describing the nature of change and shift related to the achievement of concept and its role in the development of the architectural field .              &nb

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