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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Impact of Political Thought on Human Rights
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 Receipt date:11/19/2020 acceptance date:10/1/2021 Publishing date:12/31/2021

   Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Human rights are one of the basic concepts of modern and contemporary times, and political thought as the origin of political science and its source of knowledge have impact  in this science and its branches

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Mon Feb 19 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Performance of the comedian in Moliere plays
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This research aims to study the performance of comedian in the plays of writer Moliere . The problem of research is to answer the following question:      How does comedian Moliere's techniques in a number of his plays and funny acts?   The    research aims at revealing the means used by the comedian in his performance of a comedic character in the number of Moliere plays.                                                 

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Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Purgation in Evelyn Waugh's The Scarlet Woman
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The Scarlet Woman, Waugh's only screenplay and one of the least popular among his works, says more than it really does. Despite its  crudeness in terms of plot, acting, and directing, it conveys a serious message. On a limited scale, The Scarlet Woman might be regarded as Waugh's version of  Dante's Purgatorio.  Written when he was at Oxford,  it shows symptoms of  subconscious rejection of the wild life he led without God. Five years before his conversion to Catholicism, Waugh seems to have been waiting for purgation. This is his  design in The Scarlet Woman.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 30 2008
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Qarun In the Holy Quran "": An analytical study
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For in the Holy Qur’an there are vivid examples and speaking models that tell stories of the tyrants who filled the world with tyranny and overwhelmed it with tyranny, and the Holy Qur’an presents these proverbs to people, not so that they may be amused by them, but rather so that they consider and bite with them. For every tyrannical tyrant, he lives within a framework of self-loss, according to him from life he lives and suffices, even without attachment to a principle or an ideal, and in the world of the unconscious with his whims, without any regard for death that is closer to him than his jugular vein, or for an account that does not leave small or great Therefore, the title of my research came to this (Qarun in the Holy Qur’a

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Aware of the roots of the text in the arab heritage
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Text science presented a set of criteria to make the text essentially a project to create
texts and use. Me and means of cohesion script text scientists, two standard foundries and
knitting. Find this means their equivalent in the Arab rhetorical Heritage has been found, it
means foundries find Accompanying represented (link grammar in the classroom and link),
and referrals represented by (Baldmair, Ldefinition, and the name of the signal), and
deletion, and repetition, and presentation delays. As in the standard knitting it has confirmed
Albulagjun Arabs on the semantic consistency between the text components, as reflected in
the moral link in Chapter interfaces, as well as in moral coherence between parts of the te

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 02 2022
Journal Name
مجلة الشرق الأوسط للدراسات القانونية والفقهية
أثر الارادة المفترضة في تحديد المسؤوليةالجنائية
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Social Heritage of Mamage in Baghdad City
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Marriage as a social case began Almighty God created Adam, peace be upon him then created from the rib Eve to be the first couple of human beings on the face of the earth and the formation of the first social family in the land, human and picked up this social reality through the generations, but in different shapes and purposes, but the mating process is one. So I got the divine religions and organized that life, especially in Islam, as explained every aspect of the life of the role and practice of marriage and had a large share in this organization and I got many Quranic verses and the Hadith.
With different civilizations, many of the marriage ceremony appeared in ancient societies take several forms of marriage.
But marriage and

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Woman Under Virtual Reality Environment
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Virtual reality technology is the science of the embodiment of things and move spontaneously among non-real from one place to another with the full sense of the form, touch, sound, enables the user tried out and deal with it, like a real natural world and open up new worlds for human ambitious to let him overlooks the supposed world. Internet has become part of our daily lives, especially with the presence of mobile devices; that revolutionized the world of social networking. Access to information and build relationships change in the era of digital technology. The woman is not in isolation from this era; she found to herself a wide area for the production of ideas.
When we talk about woman in the modern means of communication, this a

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Türkçe'de –Yor Ekinin Kullanışları
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Önsöz

 

Bu tez Türkçe'de -yor ekinin kullanışları başlığını taşımaktadır.

            Bilindiği gibi, bu ek Türkçe'de bir çok sayıda görev ve işlev yüklenebilmektedir. Bu ek Türkiye Türkçesinde en sık kullanılan şimdiki zaman ekidir. Bu ek hem şekil hem zaman ifade eder. Ayrıca da bu ekin çeşitli kullanışları verdır.

            Bu ekle ilgili kaymalar çok açık olup örnekleri de son derece fazladır

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2005
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Etre et Avoir Principaux auxiliaires de la langue francaise
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Etre et Avoir Principaux auxiliaires de la langue francaise

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