تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract
The aim of the research is to measure the effect of changing the exchange rate on bank loans, and in order to achieve this goal, the (official exchange rate) was chosen as an independent variable and its effect was studied on the dependent variable, which is bank credit. Commercial Gulf, Baghdad, A Shore International for Investment (and the financial indicators (growth rate of loans) and the statistical program (Eviews 12) were used to measure the impact of the exchange rate change on the bank credit of banks, the research sample for the period 2012-2022, and the research reached a group Among the conclusions, the most important of which is that the
... Show MoreCurrent research aims to find out:
- Effect of using the active learning in the achievement of third grade intermediate students in mathematics.
- Effect of using of active learning in the tendency towards the study of mathematics for students of third grade intermediate.
In order to achieve the goals of the research, the researcher formulated the following two hypotheses null:
- There is no difference statistically significant at the level of significance (0.05) between two average of degrees to achievement
The success of any institution must be based on means to protect its resources and assets from the waste, loss, misuse and the availability of accurate and reliable data by accounting reports to increase its operational efficiency, namely, that the internal control system is considered as a safety valve for top management in any economic unit. The problem is represented by the need for an efficient system, so to ensure its success, there must exist external parties which monitor and evaluate the performance because of its importance by following clear criteria. So, the research problem came to address performance evaluation indicators which are set by the Federal Board of Supreme Audit (FBSA) and identify the extent of its contribution t
... Show MoreABSTRACT
Threw this research to the following:
1 - Know the impact of strategy Puglia in the collection of the rules of the Arabic language
students at the Institute of preparation parameters .
2 - Know the impact of the retention strategy in Puglia collection rules Arabic language
students at the Institute of preparation parameters .
To verify the status Mmermaa Find researcher Elsafreeten following two hypotheses :
1 - There is no statistically significant difference between the average score for the collection
of the fourth grade students at the Institute for the preparation of material parameters who
were studying grammar strategy Puglia and average grades collectible fourth grade
students at the Institu
Training has occupied a leading position in a large number of developed and developing countries alike in order to develop the skills of workers in line with the changes and developments of the era, including monitoring compliance in banks, which is one of the most important jobs in banking work to trailing and monitor the bank’s compliance with laws, regulations and instructions in order to achieve its goals Therefore, the problem of this research focuses on the following question: What is the role of training in enhancing banking compliance at the present time? In order to clarify the relationship between the main and sub-research variables, two main hypotheses and three sub-hypotheses were formulated for each hypothesis, and t
... Show MoreThis research set to indicate the role of the opportunity cost in the overall economic development (human and social development) by selecting the most appropriate alternative for the growth of the country in exchange for sacrificing profit limits to achieve this growth and development of the country, especially in the present circumstances of the country and after studying the reality of the economic case for him, as the problem lies with don't selecting the best alternative that enhances the gross domestic product, which extends to promote overall economic development and revive the industrial and agricultural sectors, productivity is more like Impotent, versus sacrifice alternative consumption may bring more financially lucrative than
... Show MoreThis paper try to shed light on one of interpretations of the prosody of Ibn Barry “Al-duraru l-lawāmi῾ fi maqra᾽i l-ImāmiNāfi῾” a famous prosody that students still study and spend time in memorize and understand it until this day. This interpretation is considered one of the simplest and appropriate to the nature of teaching in the early stages of education for students of Arabic in general. Also, we try very hard to extract the commons characteristics of this and other interpretation of the text we have, then effort a large text as an example of what we are going to say in conclusions.
This research is entitled (civil society in Islamic political thought) which is an intellectual approach with theories of governance in Islam) to be as an attempt to clarify the confusion between mandatory and governorship text basis, and the extent of the nation’s movement within the framework of guiding to translate requirements of the responding towards the civil state project through civil visions according to the Islamic perspective.
In other words, It is the relationship of man and society in one hand and with an authority with other hand , according to an attempt vision that is to emphasize that Islamic religion can manage modern society and can prove legal philosophical reason
... Show MoreNegotiation is considered as one of the most important kinds of communication in the contemporary organizations, which depend on the important role of managerial information systems in providing necessary and suitable information for success of the negotiation process.
Accordingly, this study aims at measuring the extent of the variables effect of managerial information system in the negotiation process.
To achieve this study, two hypotheses were chosen; the first is the correlation relation and the second is the effect, and statistical means represented by correlation coefficient "Spearman" and (R2) were used.
A Number of conclusions were
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