تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Supervised By : Prof. dr. Shaker Jaseem Mohammed This research aims to identify the (effectiveness of Bayer's strategy in the development of deductive thinking among students in the fifth grade literary material European history) and to achieve the goal set researcher null hypothesis of the following: • There is no statistically significant difference between the average scores of the experimental group which studied the use of Bayer's strategy and the control group, which studied the use of the usual way in the development of deductive reasoning. The study sample consisted of (84 students) of the students in the fifth grade literary breeding Baghdad / Karkh second Directorate for the academic year 2015-2016 were distributed Aanhaldras
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to measure the length between the variable the efficiency of the tax examiner with its dimensions represented by (scientific questions, practical process (experience), training and development, impartiality and independence, ethics of the profession) and the approved variable discovering the artificial adaptation of profits, and the degree of arrangement of those dimensions its importance and priority, and the research problem has been identified In a main question that is there any effect of copying the images of the image examiner in discovering the adaptation, the financial statements and reports of the companies (X, Y) and the banks (A, B) were relied on in the interpretation of the results, t
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The research aims to know the reality of a two examined variables at the organization studied identifying the relationship between managerial processes reengineering and organizational citizenship behavior. The research applied on the Electronic Manufacturing Company encompassing a sample of managers and employees consisted of (100) individuals. A questionnaire is the main instrument for data gathering, which has been included (45) questions as well as personal interviews to support the questionnaire's questions and to achieve greater realism for collecting information.
Answers were analyzed to reach the final results through the use of a number of statistical methods via
... Show MoreThe letter is defined as a message directed by the sender to another party, the future. The aim is to convey, clarify or explain a particular point or subject, and in the form of direct oral communication through speech that contains a set of words and words, The future can discuss the sender directly to exchange ideas with each other, or it may be written and in this case does not require direct interaction between the matchmaker and the recipient. As a result of the different sources and topics of the discourse, and the different types of categories addressed to the speech, and the number, it has been divided into several types.
And schools of discourse analysis emerged in the early eighties of the last century and has spread and ha
The researcher identified the objective of this research Do you know the impact of the way to solve problems in the achievement of the students in the fourth grade prep Islamic Education, and the researcher has identified the limits of the search, and the terms contained in the title researched and then offered the researcher previous studies relate to the subject studied, introduced Studies in Arab and foreign countries dealt with how to solve problems, the researcher identified the methodology discussed public represented by experimental method, and the sample consisted of two groups, one experimental and the other officer, and worked on the set of variables that may affect the results between the two groups in vkavot changers task, th
... Show MoreObjective (s): to assess nurses' practices regarding discharge planning post-cardiac surgery and to find out the relationship between nurse practices and demographic characteristic (age, gander, level of education, years of experiences, and years of experiences in surgical ward).
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at cardiac centers and hospitals in Baghdad (Ibn Al- Bitar specialized center for cardiac surgery; Iraqi center for heart disease and Ibn al Nafees hospital). For the period of 6th February 2017 up to 1st of June 2018. A non-probability (purposive) sample of (58) nurses (male & female) who were working in surgical wards. The data was collected, by using of a questionnaire, which consists of two parts, part
The personality characteristics of the Leader are considered one of the main elements to reach into business organizations entrepreneurship; and because of the development of the organizations of the continuous transformations as result of huge Competition in private High Education sector, there is a great need for Leaders characterized of certain personality capable of managing their organizations and can positively effect on them. Also these organizations' success to reach into entrepreneurship requires a main significant element that is (strategic flexibility) which is considered one of the important elements for success.
Accordingly, this research is trying to fin
... Show MoreThe research tried to show the importance of Administrative Control being one of the important means in administrative work; they work on the review and audit work done and error handling explored in the work and prevent the occurrence and ascertain the extent of implementation of the planned targets, and therefore this is reflected in raising the efficiency of the performance of the tax examiner and complete the work as soon as possible and the highest efficiency and reduce the gaps that may occur between the parties of the tax settling accounts and dealt with in the theoretical side of the search to the research problem, namely with whether operating management oversight to improve the performance and increase the efficiency of t
... Show MoreMeditationsuggetsthat the theatrical world and the receiptindicatethattherie a thread connection or relationshipbetweenthembecausetheateris an art thatfailsinto the abyss of the humanfield ,receivingis a practice thatisreffered to by corners of society and islocated in the context of thisfield. Thus, the relationshipbetweenalgeriantheater and the recepientissanctified by the nature of theaterwhichisbased on a social basis thatbuildsitsexistance and continuityfrom the recepient.Its impossible to imagine a real theaterthatwillbeestablishedunlessit’sassociatedwith an audience so one hand never claps to makesound. This connectionis the first phenomenonthatcanbecome accessible to all people and itremains the second phenomenonthatrequires th
... Show MoreIn mid 3rd century H . and exactly in the second Abbasid era, Thereappeared ideological trends which are skeptical of Islamic religion depending upon the magic at one time , and Telmudi ideas at other times . The Muslim scholars , headed by Imam Al – Hasan Al – Askari , answerd them by Iogic and scientific arguments , relying on the gloroious Qur an and the prophetic Sunnah ,and what He learnt from his grandparents . Therefore , He managed to take down their ideas in the bud and rescue the Islamic religion from anything irrelevant to what the prophet brought .