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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The servant leadership and its impact in organizational trust An analytical study in oil products distribution company / Baghdad
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Abstract

The research aims at the relationship between Servant leadership dimensions test as an independent variable and an organizational trust as a variable dependent. Thus it was necessary to answer the following question: Is there a correlation relationship and impact between Servant leadership dimensions and organizational trust? To investigate the contents of the answer, the researcher selected a group of employees in Oil Products Distribution Company / Baghdad. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive approach in completing his research which dealt with a random sample of (190) individuals representing the research society out of the total number of (376) person from the middle and high Leaders. Depending

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Use of Digital Public – Relations in the Work of Iraqi Universities: A Survey Study of the Workers in the Departments of Public Relations
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the digital public relations aim at make the workers getting the necessary information about the governmental institutions where they work and the enveronment surrounding them. it also tries to let the workers get the special knowlege of tthe publich relations and their jobs like the works of planning , arranging the active communication and executive skills needed in their writing , editing , special art skills for designing , production and technological skills to deal with the computer.
the problem of the research includes some questions as :
1- what are the uses achieved by degetal public relations workers at Iraqi universities (Baghdad, Mustansiriya, and Iraqi)
2- what are the tools used to apply digital public relations

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of Satellite Channels in Imparting Behavior to Children from the Point of View of their Parents in Tulkarm City
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This study aims to identify the role of satellite channels in imparting behavior to children from the point of view of their parents in Tulkarm city. The researcher used a descriptive technique. A sample of (18000) males and females married couples was used above 20 years old in the city of Tulkarm. The study sample size is (201) married couples. It took place in September 2020. The questionnaire was the main tool for collecting data. The study found that the total degree of satellite channels contribution in imparting negative behaviors to children was high, as it reached (72.20%). The total degree of the role of satellite channels in imparting positive behaviors to children was medium, reaching (69.20%). Moreover, the results also indi

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of knowledge management in achieving strategic excellence Field research in some Iraqi private banks
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The purpose of the research is to study the impact of knowledge management (personalization and coding strategy) in achieving strategic excellence in the environment of Iraqi private banks, and the descriptive and analytical research approach has been adopted, so the researcher adopted positive philosophy according to the deductive approach for the purpose of deriving the first research hypothesis from the theoretical side and the research reached a group of The most important results are that the personalization strategy has made great progress in its ability to influence strategic superiority as a responsive variable, as the civil bank departments were successful in employing the changes that occurred in the personalization str

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Disease Patterns and outcomes of Neonatal Admissions at Raparin Pediatric Teaching Hospital in Erbil City
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Objectives: This study aims to determine the disease’s patterns and outcomes of admission among neonates hospitalized at the neonatal care unit in Erbil City, and using the findings as a baseline for neonate’s morbidity and mortality assessment in the future. Methodology: A retrospective study carried out at neonatal care unit of Raparin pediatric teaching hospital. An instrument for data collection developed by researcher included (age, gender, cause of admission, diagnosis and outcome upon discharge and causes of death). Content validity of the instrument was determined through the use of panel ex

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Creative Thinking Skills in Administrative Leadership style " Field research in the Medical City " *
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 This research aims at to identify the extent to which creative thinking skills Impact the change &development of Administrative Leadership styles In Administrative Leadership of the Medical City Department. Identify the nature of the relationship between them, determine the prevailing leadership style, &measure the level of creative thinking skills they have. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the descriptive analytical method was adopted.

The research tool consisted of a questionnaire consisting of (61) paragraphs, in addition to the interview & observation. The research sample consisted of (170) administrative leaders in the upper &middle organizational levels. The

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The influence of Online Training Courses on Iraqi EFL Instructors Teaching and Learning Process
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For over a decade, educational technology has been used sparingly in our schools and universities. Online training courses have been used since 2003 to fill the gaps in our learning system and to add extra program besides classroom learning. This paper aims to investigate the Iraqi EFL instructors’ participating in online training courses and its influence on the process of teaching and learning.

       The sample of present study consists of 30 instructors from University of Baghdad. The questionnaire of sixteen items was constructed. After ensuring validity and reliability of questionnaire, it was applied on March 2013 and the result shows that most of instructors improve their teaching methods b

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 18 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
provisions 0f the special young man in marriageability: provisions 0f the special young man in marriageability
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This research –paper tack les some of matters relating to marriageability of the young man who has not attained discretion. the aim of this study is to highlight the religious precepts concerned. the religious missive to this effect reads; ''all praise be to Allah ,lord of the world ;I witness that  there is no god but Allah, the sole and only, to him all creation is attributed. He taught man with pen, and all that he does not know, so exalted is he, and I witness that Mohammed is his servant and messenger, the master of all messengers and the seal of all prophets who was entrusted with a message of march to all mankind. May the blessings of Allah be to him, his household and companions. Until the day of Judgement. "this missive i

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاجازات الإجازات في كتاب ((غاية النهاية في طبقات القراء)) لابن الجزري (ت833هـ)/ دراسة منهجية
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يمثل ابن الجزري احد علمائنا الذين كان لهم دور في التطور الثقافي والحضاري الذي شهده العالم الإسلامي آنذاك، ويعد كتابه هذا منهلا غزيرا لطلاب العلم لدراسته من النواحي كافة، وتشكل الإجازات إحدى حلقات الوصل في تراجمه ولها أهميتها من الناحية المنهجية ولها دور كبير في رفد كتابه هذا بكثير من الموارد التي لها أساسها احتوت على مادة كتبت بخط المجيز كان لها أثرها في دعم منهجية الكتاب،والمادة التي تشعبت في ضوء هذا الات

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر تضمين البعد البيئي في تدريس الكيمياء في التحصيل الاني والمؤجل لطلاب المرحلة الثانوية
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من الاهداف المهمة لتدريس الكيمياء في المرحلة الثانوية التعرف على الثروات الطبيعية وكيفية استغلالها والاستفادة منها (وزارة التربية والتعليم ,1970)ومن اهداف تدريس الكيمياء التي يشير اليها  المختصون ,مساعدة الفرد على التكيف الايجابي والناجح مع بيئة بما يحدث لمكوناتها مع تغير وما يدخل على بنيتها من عوامل مستجدة (كاظم ,1973) على ان يتم ذلك من خلال الشعور الايجابي لدى الافراد بدفعهم للاسهام في تطوير البيئة من

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