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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Integration of international issues in Saudi social studies and citizenship books in the light of international education principles
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The study aimed to reveal the level to which the international issues are integrated into the books of Saudi public education social studies and citizenship in the light of the principles of international education, and to know the level of continuity and integration of these issues in the books, to build a range and sequence matrix of international issues through it. The study followed the descriptive and analytical method that used the content analysis card as a tool for study when the tool achieved the necessary validity and reliability characteristics. The data of this study has been processed using the SPSS statistical program according to a set of appropriate methods of descriptive and inferential statistics.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study on the Accuracy of Prediction in Recommendation System Based on Similarity Measures
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Recommender Systems are tools to understand the huge amount of data available in the internet world. Collaborative filtering (CF) is one of the most knowledge discovery methods used positively in recommendation system. Memory collaborative filtering emphasizes on using facts about present users to predict new things for the target user. Similarity measures are the core operations in collaborative filtering and the prediction accuracy is mostly dependent on similarity calculations. In this study, a combination of weighted parameters and traditional similarity measures are conducted to calculate relationship among users over Movie Lens data set rating matrix. The advantages and disadvantages of each measure are spotted. From the study, a n

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Methods of Forecasting Credit Losses in A Sample of Iraqi Banks - A Comparative Analysis
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  The general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models, and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time. The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculatin

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Modeling Absolute Deviations Method by using Numerical Methods to measure the dispersion of the proposal for error
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Is in this research review of the way minimum absolute deviations values ​​based on linear programming method to estimate the parameters of simple linear regression model and give an overview of this model. We were modeling method deviations of the absolute values ​​proposed using a scale of dispersion and composition of a simple linear regression model based on the proposed measure. Object of the work is to find the capabilities of not affected by abnormal values by using numerical method and at the lowest possible recurrence.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of the values of accounting culture in maximizing financial performance - A field study in a sample of Iraqi banks
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The influence of culture on accounting systems and practices, including financial reports and accounting information through the values ​​identified by Gray and derived from social-cultural values, and the four accounting values ​​were derived from generally accepted accounting principles represented by (Conservatism, Uniformity, Secrecy, and Professionalism). Important and significant in maximizing financial performance, and measuring the extent of the role of these values ​​in improving financial performance through attention to the values ​​of accounting culture, this research

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Path Planning of an autonomous Mobile Robot using Swarm Based Optimization Techniques
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This paper presents a meta-heuristic swarm based optimization technique for solving robot path planning. The natural activities of actual ants inspire which named Ant Colony Optimization. (ACO) has been proposed in this work to find the shortest and safest path for a mobile robot in different static environments with different complexities. A nonzero size for the mobile robot has been considered in the project by taking a tolerance around the obstacle to account for the actual size of the mobile robot. A new concept was added to standard Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for further modifications. Simulations results, which carried out using MATLAB 2015(a) environment, prove that the suggested algorithm outperforms the standard version of AC

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2005
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
ترجمة (عملية صناعة واتخاذ القرار في السياسة الخارجية للرئيس جورج والكر بوش)
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عملية صناعة واتخاذ القرار في السياسة الخارجية للرئيس جورج والكر بوش

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 22 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING APPROACHES AND ITS INFLUENCE AT EFFICIENCY OF SERIVICE MARKETING: AN APPLIED STUDY IN GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF TRAFFIC.: STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING APPROACHES AND ITS INFLUENCE AT EFFICIENCY OF SERIVICE MARKETING: AN APPLIED STUDY IN GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF TRAFFIC.
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Strategic decision making is considered one of the important processes for senior management in contemporary business organizations and service organizations due to the properties of the service such as intangibility, concomitance and mortality. Decision-making has three approaches according to the opinions of most of the writers and researchers in the administrative area: an analytical approach, intuitive approach and behavioral approach. This research is trying to discover the nature of the relationship in terms of the link between the impact of each of these approaches and efficiency of marketing services by selecting an intentional sample of 58 researches from the Directorate General of Traffic, one of the Iraqi Interior Ministry ins

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the sustainability of the public debt in light of the volatile oil revenues in Iraq for the period (2005-2015)
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Abstract

This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi

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