Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
المركز حورابي
التنافس في العلاقات الدولية (مدخل مفاهيمي)
...Show More Authors

يعد التنافس امر اعتيادي في المعاملات الدولية وبين الدول لاسيما في الوقت الحالي فهي لا تدخل في نزاع او حرب او حتى ازمة

Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Nov 03 2017
Journal Name
منشورات الحلبي الحقوقية
الاخلال بالتنفيذ في بيوع التجارة الدولية
...Show More Authors

يتناول الاخلال في عقد البيع الدولي للبضائع وفقاً لاتفاقية فيينا والمسؤولية الناشئة عنه

Publication Date
Sun Mar 10 2024
Journal Name
The International And Political Journal
التغيرات المناخية وتأثيرها في النزاعات الدولية
...Show More Authors

يظل التغير المناخى التحدى الأكثر أهمية للإنسانية فى الأيام المقبلة ، والأكثر صعوبة في معالجة تداعياته ليس فقط بسبب جوهره البعيد عن الإرادة الإنسانية، كونه معبرا عن غضب الطبيعة، وإنما بسبب القصور الذي لا يزال يهيمن على السياسات الدولية، خاصة الدول الكبرى فى صراعاتها المستمرة، وكذلك على سلوكيات الأفراد التي تعكس غياب ثقافة التعامل مع البيئة ومكوناتها على النحو الأمن ، وسيظل رهناً بوعي الدول بمسؤلياتها ووعي

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study on the Accuracy of Prediction in Recommendation System Based on Similarity Measures
...Show More Authors

Recommender Systems are tools to understand the huge amount of data available in the internet world. Collaborative filtering (CF) is one of the most knowledge discovery methods used positively in recommendation system. Memory collaborative filtering emphasizes on using facts about present users to predict new things for the target user. Similarity measures are the core operations in collaborative filtering and the prediction accuracy is mostly dependent on similarity calculations. In this study, a combination of weighted parameters and traditional similarity measures are conducted to calculate relationship among users over Movie Lens data set rating matrix. The advantages and disadvantages of each measure are spotted. From the study, a n

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (17)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Methods of Forecasting Credit Losses in A Sample of Iraqi Banks - A Comparative Analysis
...Show More Authors

  The general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models, and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time. The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculatin

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الكوت الجامعة للعلوم الإنسانية
Student - Teacher Environmental Sustainability Values College of Education for Pure Sciences
...Show More Authors

Research objective to identify the degree of environmental sustainability values of the student-teacher in the College of Education for Pure Sciences. In this research the methodology of relational descriptive research was adopted, and the research sample consisted of (116) students from the College of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn Al-Haytham / University of Baghdad From the Department of Chemistry (fourth stage), that is, 54% of the research community were randomly selected. The research tool was prepared, represented by a measure of environmental sustainability values of (20) items, the results of the research showed: The poor degree of environmental sustainability values. The Statistical Portfolio of Social Sciences (SPSS) was adopte

... Show More
Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the sustainability of the public debt in light of the volatile oil revenues in Iraq for the period (2005-2015)
...Show More Authors

Abstract

This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jan 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Encoding errors in reading the first grade of primary (analytical study)
...Show More Authors

    Aims current research to identify the mistakes coding contained in the reading first grade. Encoding knew that he had failed in Retrieval or identifying information, the researcher diagnosis of mistakes and presented to a group of teachers first grade and they have an appropriate adjustment and using the percentage shows that the agreement on the mistakes ratio and adjusted researcher recommended a set of proposals and recommendations can work out the future for the advancement of scientific level

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of External Audit in Limiting Creative Accounting Practices in Light of International Standards from The Point of View of Certified Accountancy Experts in Iraq as a Model
...Show More Authors

This research aims to solve a problem in the field of accounting and financial knowledge in the world today, that is, the problem of creative accounting. Especially after the global financial crisis and the collapse of many large companies in the world, people find that they use creative accounting methods to distinguish them from reality, showing the results of their activities and their financial status. This research discusses the concept of creative accounting, the most important methods used in financial statements and its relationship with external auditing, and procedures to limit accounting creativity. This study uses descriptive analysis methods after confirming its theoretical aspects in practice. Using the statistical

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Path Planning of an autonomous Mobile Robot using Swarm Based Optimization Techniques
...Show More Authors

This paper presents a meta-heuristic swarm based optimization technique for solving robot path planning. The natural activities of actual ants inspire which named Ant Colony Optimization. (ACO) has been proposed in this work to find the shortest and safest path for a mobile robot in different static environments with different complexities. A nonzero size for the mobile robot has been considered in the project by taking a tolerance around the obstacle to account for the actual size of the mobile robot. A new concept was added to standard Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for further modifications. Simulations results, which carried out using MATLAB 2015(a) environment, prove that the suggested algorithm outperforms the standard version of AC

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (22)
Crossref