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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The use of GIS in the analysis of existing condition of spatial distribution of wire communications network in the city of Baghdad
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The increasing efficiency of the telecommunications network in the city contributes to the increase in spatial interaction between activities (to influence and mutual influence) This study is based on the idea that the upgrading of telephone services provided to citizens are done exclusively through the growth and development of all levels of the service using advanced technologies to know the problems and appropriate solutions in short time and less cost. Thus, crystallized the objectives of the study which was built for the importance of GIS in the planning of services in general, and infrastructure services, in particular, including telephone services, which is represent a point of contact between individuals on the one hand a

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effective of incentive system on development of Research creativity for professors of university: Analytical study at private collage in Baghdad
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This research aims at studying and analyzing the creative research thinking of the educational staffs in private universities and colleges, and also the role of incentives, in its materialistic and moral sides in the development of such thinking and the pack of restraints which cause decline in interest level of the scientificresearch, and its weak role in the development of universities in Iraq, despite the interest of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Iraq in scientific research as part ofits academic and humanitarian targets.Based on study and analysis, and the using if some of statistical methods such as the Alpha Chronobaghcoefficient and the (T. Test)(F. Test),the research reached a number of conclusions.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
النظام النظام المالي في الاندلس في عصري المرابطين والموحدين (484- 620 ه/ 1092-1223م)
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The research dealt with the financial policies adopted by Almurabitin (484-520 / 1092-1143) and Almuahadin (540-620 / 1145-1223) in Andalusia, their characteristics, and how they dealt with increasing the resources of Bayt Almal and organizing the spending process. The first axis of the research discussed the policies of the management of public funds in the provinces of Almurabitin and Almuahadin in Andalusia. While the second presented to the most prominent and most important resources of Andalusia financial in the era of these two countries such as Zakat, Alkhiraj, Alghanayim, confiscations and illegal taxes and others. The third axis reviewed the public spending policies of the two countries and the political and military conditions

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دور تنقيب البيانات Data Mining في زيادة أداء المنظمة (( دراسة تحليلية في المصرف الصناعي ))
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تمهيد

غالبا ما يكون تعامل المنظمات المالية والمصرفية مع الزبائن بشكل أساسي مما يتطلب منها جمع كميات هائلة من البيانات عن هؤلاء الزبائن هذا بالإضافة الى ما يرد اليها يوميا من بيانات يجعلها أمام أكداس كبيرة من البيانات تحتاج الى جهود جبارة تحسن التعامل معها والاستفادة منها بما يخدم المنظمة.

ان التعامل اليدوي مع مثل هذه البيانات دون استخدام تقنيات حديثة يبعد المنظمة عن التط

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Emotional Trends, and Emotional Exhaustion in organizations: (Developing foundations the philosophy and thinking in organizational behavior)
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Emotional exhaustion considered one of the critical factors in the formation and composition of organizational behavior of individuals within organizations, as well as social behavior and psychological, and emotional exhaustion is one of the three components of burnout, as well as depersonalization (cynicism) and low achievement, the emergence of research relevant to this concept began at the beginning of the seventies of the twentieth century, then started to become clear features in the eighties it. This research aims to build intellectual framework for draining emotional exhaustion through highlight on most important philosophical contents, as well as review and analysis of some models associated with this concept, and then a

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 23 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Role of Carbon Dioxide on the Corrosion of Carbon Steel Reinforcing Bar in Simulating Concrete Electrolyte
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The main factors that make it possible to get the corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete are chloride ions and the absorption of carbon dioxide from the environment, and each of them works with a mechanism which destroys the stable immunity of rebar in the concrete. In this work the effect of carbon dioxide content in the artificial concrete solution on the corrosion behavior of carbon steel reinforcing bar (CSRB) was studied, potentiostatically using CO2 stream gas at 6 level of concentrations;  0.03 to 2.0  weight percent, and the effect of rising electrolyte temperature was also followed  in the range 20 to 50 C. Tafel plots and cyclic polarization procedures were obeyed to investigate the c

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Active Reading Strategy on the Achievement of the Second Year Middle School Students in Biology
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Abstract

The aim of the current research is to identify the effect of the effective reading strategy on the achievement of second-middle students in biology, as well as the imaginative thinking skills of students. The researcher adopted the experimental design with partial control to achieve the goal of the research. The current research community identified the second-middle students in the government schools of the Baghdad Education Directorate / Rusafa I for the academic year (2021-2022 AD). The Safina Intermediate School for Girls was chosen to be the research sample in the form of intentionally, two classes were randomly selected from a total of four classes, one of them is experimental and the other is con

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 11 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Ambidexteritg leadership behaviors in organizational excellence Comparative : applied research in the two public companies, Al-Zawraa and the electrical and electronic industries
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Business organizations strive to reach organizational excellence, in instruction to maintain their position in the market, so the research started from the problem of the weakness of the senior leaders in the two companies investigated in the management and sustainability of work, as well as their inability to face challenges that could affect the work of the two companies in the future, especially the lack of organizational of the future and the prediction of those events, so the two companies seek to explore and invest opportunities to achieve organizational excellence. The research aims to know the role of Ambidexterity  leadership behaviors in organizational excellence in my company .and create ideas that will achieve organizati

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 11 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Inner Music in the Book of Young Branches in the Advantages of the Seven Hundred Poets of Ibn Sa`id Al-Andalusi
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Everyone agrees on the importance of internal music, as it is the greatest pillar in poetry music. Because it differs in internal music, and we seek in this research to shed light on the internal music in the book The Young Branches of Ibn Saeed Al-Andalusi, in terms of the poets' choice of words and styles that make up the internal music

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Adapting IFRS 15 on Auditing Procedures for Auditors in Iraqi Environment
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The purpose of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS 15) is to determine the basis for reporting useful information to the users of financial reports on the nature, amount, timing and uncertainty about revenues and cash flows arising from a contract with a customer. It is based on specific conditions for recognizing revenue from the contract. When the two parties to the contract or one of them fulfil the performance obligations, specifically after the customer has the ability to exercise control over the product or service that is the subject of the contract. As a result of the failure of the revenue reporting requirements in the Iraqi environment to provide adequate and honestly representative information on the o

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