Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Oct 30 2008
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The will In the Islamic concept
...Show More Authors

I often read in Islamic jurisprudence in all chapters as much as possible from divine success, time and health, and everything I read in any of the chapters of jurisprudence, I see divine light, eternal wisdom, and a constitution that does not accept error and alteration, as I looked at the great jurisprudential treasures and this enormous wealth, A person finds in himself helplessness in front of this law, how clear, easy, and accurate it is, and it contains permanent good for man, as it is a religion of mercy, benevolence, and goodness, and among these chapters of jurisprudence is the jurisprudence of the commandment. Of the reasons, in the will, the person has had the opportunity to make up for what he missed of doing good that a pers

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
El realismo del personaje de Lazarillo de Tormes por el tratado primero "cuenta Lazaro su vida y cuyo hijo fue"
...Show More Authors

El Lázarillo señala a fines del reinado del emperador, el comienzo de un
nuevo género en la literatura castellana. A través de sus páginas nos adentró en un
mundo de pobreza, de
hambre secular, de hipocresía, y rodeado de problemas.
Lázaro cuenta en primera persona sus aventuras comenzando por su nacimiento, en
una aceña de las riberas del río Tormes. Condenando su padre como ladrón y, su
madre se entrega al mas vil morisco - cuya conducta deja también que desea –
haber pasado hambre y le entrega, siendo todavía un niño, a un ciego de alma ruin
para que, acompañándole, se gana la vida. Para aplacar el hambre, pues el ciego le
daba poco de comer, el muchacho le hace objeto, de repetidas tretas.

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Communication in art Education
...Show More Authors

The aim of this research is to find approaches between the communicative process and the teaching of art education. Postgraduate/Masters studies for the academic year 2022-2023.
In the light of this tool, the researcher reached a number of results, most notably: The art education teacher performs his communicative role correctly, as well as his ability to use verbal and non-verbal expressions and positive reinforcement clearly for the benefit of his students, and stimulates the largest number of their senses

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jan 08 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
Visual discourse in television
...Show More Authors

Visual discourse in cinema and television is an expressive medium that carries its audio and visual elements and is effective in influencing the memory of the recipient, according to multiple patterns of forms and representations aimed at persuasion, influence, entertainment, enjoyment and knowledge. This speech will not pass by the recipient without difficulty, as the multiplicity of forms and techniques of image presentation and the diversity of contents derived from different beliefs, concepts, ideas and perceptions may sometimes reach intersections and conflicts, which is reflected in the form of the screen and the theory of television. This motivates us to know the ways in which audio-visual discourse is produced on television, whic

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2004
Journal Name
Al-academy
منطق الشكل في الخزف
...Show More Authors

منطق الشكل في الخزف

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
أثر أسلوب المطالعة الخارجیة في تعدیل الفھم الخاطئ للمفاھیم العلمیة في مادة العلوم لطلاب الصف الأول المتوسط في ثانویة كلیة بغداد
...Show More Authors

The aim of the research :
Current research aims is to present the effect of how the style of reading to amend the wrong
understanding of scientific concepts
In the lesson of science for the first grade in Baghdad faculty secondary school.
To achieve this goal has been formulated the following null hypothesis :-
" there is no statistically differences at the level of (0.05) between the average at level of
students achievement in the style of reading comprehension "
In order to validate the hypothesis by conducting an experiment had started from 19/3/2011-
1/5/2011 for the second semester.
After the researcher prepared suplies for the researcher prepared suplies for the experience and
deternim the scientific m

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
اثر اعتماد تكلفة راسمال في احتساب نقطة التعادل على الرافعة التشغيلية، التمويلية ﻓﻲ تخطيط الارباح في الشركات الصناعية في اقليم كوردستان
...Show More Authors

This study aims to expand the traditional model in calculating the break-even point to include the cost of capital invested and the funds employed in industrial companies through a change in the traditional model and the effect of adopting the advanced model of the break point on the operational leverage in planning profits in industrial companies. Where, the analysis of the break-even point and the operational leverage of the tools important by the management, which is used in the field of planning profits. A parity analysis in its sophisticated model will help in planning profits and determine the optimal size of production that maximizes profits. For its part, the operational leverage helps to make decisions regarding the expansion of

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL&EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PLANS IN GREENHOUSES IN ASSOCIATION OF AL-WATAN UNDER CONDITION OF RISK &UNCERTAINTY
...Show More Authors

 The objectives of this research are to determine and find out the reality of crops structure of greenhouses in association of Al-Watan  in order to stand on the optimal use of economic resources available for the purpose of reaching a crop structure optimization of the farm that achieves maximize profit and gross and net farm incomes , using the method of linear programming to choose the farm optimal plan with the highest net income , as well as identifying production plans farm efficient with (income - deviation) optimal (E-A) of the Association and derived, which takes into account the margin risk wich derived from each plan using the model( MOTAD), as a model of models of linear programming alternative programming m

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of Smart Leadership Dimensions In Crisis Management- A study For Opinions Of Sample Of Administrative Leaderships In A number Of Humanities Colleges At The University Of Mosul
...Show More Authors

This research aims at answering many questions raised by the research problem concerning the view of the organizations under consideration for the concept of smart leadership and its most important dimensions, as well as the view of crisis management and its concept and most important methods through research objectives that define and clarify the smart leadership with its dimensions and methods of crisis management.

For the purpose of reaching the results of the research and testing the assumptions about the relationship between smart leadership and methods of crisis management, the researcher adopted a questionnaire, designed especially to be a criterion for the research, as the main tool for data coll

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jan 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of an Instructional Program on Patientsꞌ Knowledge about Home Safety While Receiving Anti -Cancer Medications at Al- Karama Teaching Hospital in Al-Kut City
...Show More Authors

Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of the instructional program on patients’ knowledge about home safety while receiving anti-cancer treatment at  Al- Karama Teaching Hospital in Al-Kut City.

Methodology:   A quasi-experimental design is conducted through the application of a pre-test and post-test approach for the study and control groups from February 5th, 2020 to April 25th, 2020. A non–probability (purposive) sample of (50) patients treated at the Blood Disease and Oncology Center is selected and divided into two groups. Each group contains (25) patients as control and study groups. An instrument is constructed that is comprised of two parts; t

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF