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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 23 2025
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal Of Administrative And Economic sciences
Determination of competency levels and auditor evaluation procedures to the international standard (ISO19011: 2018) A case study at the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities/Audit Directorate
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The current research seeks to achieve several objectives, including knowing the extent of the audit directorate of the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities of the International Standard (ISO19011:2018) regarding determining the efficiency and evaluation of auditors and diagnosing the gap between requirements and application and knowing the reasons for not applying some of the items in the standard, starting from the problem, The field raised the following question (Does the audit directorate determine the efficiency and evaluation of auditors according to the standard ISO19011:2018?), and the importance of research lies in determining the return that can be achieved by the directorate through its application of stand

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Effectiveness of Modern Media Techniques in Developing Good Citizenship Values among Students
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This research aims to identify the effectiveness of modern media technologies represented by satellite TV in the development of good citizenship values when students. To achieve this purpose were selected a sample of 44 students in the Department of Electrical technologies in Technical Institute in Nasiriyah in southern Technical University during the school year (2015-2016).
Was determined the general objectives of the use of modern media techniques represented satellite TV is to promote the values of good citizenship among the sample of students in order to make them good citizens in the community could contribute to the development and upgrading it. And put the general plan of research. Promising researchers measure of good citizen

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Application of the Banzhaf Values for Cooperating Among Producers of Waste Processing in the Al-Mahmudiya Factory
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     The game theory has been applied to all situations where agents’ (people or companies) actions are utility-maximizing, and the collaborative offshoot of game theory has proven to be a robust tool for creating effective collaboration strategies in a broad range of applications. In this paper first, we employ the Banzhaf values to show the potential cost to waste producers in the case of a cooperation and to reduce the overall costs of processing non-recyclable waste during cooperation between producers. Secondly, we propose an application of the methodology to study a case for five waste producers' waste management in the Al-Mahmudiya factory with the aim of displaying the potential cost to waste producers in case of cooperatio

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Developing the School Curriculum in a way Helps Raising the Values of Forgiveness and Acceptance
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تناولنا في هذه الدراسة التأكيد على تطوير المناهج الدراسية بأتجاه تنمية قيم التسامح والتعايش السلمي ، لان ثقافة التسامح باتت من الضرورات الملحة التي يفرضها الواقع الراهن لمواجهة العنف المجتمعي ، مما يوجب الحرص على ترسيخ القيم الانسانية ، لان التسامح من الصفات التي تحبها النفوس وتنجذب اليها القلوب .

والقيم الاخلاقية والسلوكية كالتسامح وغيرها ، من الامور الرئيسية لعمليتي التربية والتعليم في المدارس وال

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of the documentary credit opening procedures on The obligate of time limits prescribed by the contract
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This research aims to analyze the effect between letter of credit opening  and implementation procedures which considered one of the most important Foreign services submitted by bank institutions to their customers on Time contracted time limit commitment contract by some Iraqi commercial banks, descriptive analytical method used in This research The questionnaires designed a tool main research to gather information to get to know the effect ,  Seventy questionnaire forms were distributed, sixty seven forms were analyzable , The answers were analyzed by the arithmetic mean and standard deviation and test the level of influence between variables simple linear regression. The result showe

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflecting the mental abilities of decision-makers in defining the strategic orientation
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        The purpose of this research is to highlight the nature of the relationship between the mental abilities of decision makers and strategic orientation . The intellectual capacity of decision-makers is the cornerstone for the implementation of all the tasks and duties of the Organization and constitutes the most important of its capabilities. As a result of the sharp changes in the environment in which it operates, this organization must accurately define its strategic directions to ensure its

survival and continuity. The problem of field research was to answer a fundamental question: Is the Iraqi director aware of how to employ mental abilities in strategic direc

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة كامبريدج للبحوث العلمية
الحماية الدولية لحقوق المرأة في ظل الاتفاقيات الدولية (الإتجار بالنساء إنموذجاً)
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تعد ظاهرة الإتجار بالنساء جريمة من الجرائم ضد الأنسانية لما تنطوي على عدوان صريح وواضح على القيم الأنسانية والجماعات البشرية اذ تجعل من النساء سلعة رخيصة ومحلا للعرض والطلب، يمكن تداولها واستغلالها بالوسائل كافة غير المشروعة، فعلى سبيل المثال ان الاتجار بالنساء والأطفال لأغراض الدعارة والاستغلال الجنسي وبيع الأعضاء البشرية والزواج القسري والاستغلال السيء للمهاجرين بصفة غير شرعية، كلها تعد جانباً من جوان

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
نظم دعم القرار واختيار الأداة الملائمة لبنائها
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DSS are the result of the information technology.  DSS focus on providing the relative support to improve the quality of decision making in the organization.  The quality of decisions depends on the information availability and the adequate models of analysis.  DSS have evolved since the 1970's.  The globalization and the organizational complexity have strongly effect the DSS development.  The purpose of this research work is to shed the light on the essence of DSS, its tools (OLAP, Web-Based……..), and to provide a framework to assist the Iraq organization in selecting the appropriate DSS tool for implementation.  This research is important because it highlights the role of DSS and their evolutions which

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of promotion means in the developing the activity of financial markets: A case study of Iraqi stock Exchange
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The promotion by its means lead a vital and important role at the level of all organizations, whether (industrial or service) in general, and financial markets in particular. The promotion is earns delved to be as one of the main operations which  market uses it through various means of financial markets and companies which its shares listed in the aim of (finance or investment), with a view to the implementation and financing of public and private projects the one hand, or with a view to achieving profits through investment of speculative or... For other purposes, on the other hand.Accordingly, we find that the set of public and private goals joint between the financial markets and listed companies respectively, will serve the stra

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the financial failure of Islamic banks using the Altman model, ---- springate model and ---- Sherrod model / an analytical study in Islamic banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A

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