تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract (Iraq post – war reconstruction strategy: analytical study in fact and future prospects.) There search aims at identifying the causes of internal instability in Iraq from the political ,economic , social and security aspects , to diagnose the imbalance and to work towards finding real solutions to this . The study also aims at identifying the reconstruction proposals to completely eliminate the organizationof the terrorist advocate, as well as to know. theproblem of research lies in the ability of Iraqi political elites to achieve internal stability and to employ reconstruction proposals at all levels . The hypothesis of the research lies in the equation that the process of building stability (political – economic)and (socia
... Show MoreThe general budget is usually linked to the role of the state in public life and economic activity, whether this role is neutral or interventionist and thus reflects the general objectives that the state seeks to achieve.
for importance of the public budget in clarifying the image of the political state philosophy and its objectives it seeks to achieve on the one hand and clarifying the degree and rank it occupies in the ladder of development among the other countries. This study is intended to highlight the concepts of the general budget and how its concept has evolved since the Middle Ages. Of the importance of the general budget in Iraq was not based on scientific and objective and then the study
... Show MoreThe demand for expatriate labor to Iraq increased after 2003 as a result of the openness that Iraq experienced, but this expatriate labor, which was requested at an increasing rate, has had economic, social, and political effects on the Iraqi economy in general, and the Iraqi labor market in particular. This is due to the high rates of unemployment, as most of these expatriate workers cause competition to local labor, and thus cause repercussions on the Iraqi economy as a whole, except for those expatriate workers coming with companies working in the oil sector. Iraq's GDP
As contemporary security requires the formulation of a comprehensive strategy based on multidimensional sub-strategies (economic, developmental, social, cybersecurity, military,and diplomatic dimensions to achieve so-called sustainable security and address the unconventional challenges that worsened with the turn of the twenty-first century and concerned with violent extremism, often leading to terrorism, Iraq, despite the reversal of the terrorist group ISIS in 2017, seems urgently needed to formulate effective strategies to counter violent extremism, Violent extremism has multiple internal and external reasons. These causes have increased due to local, regional, and international causes. Violent extremist factors began with the outbreak o
... Show MoreThe fluctuations in oil prices in world markets affect the general budget and the trade balance of the rent countries, because oil is a strategic commodity affected by economic and political factors. The fluctuations in oil prices affect the public budgets of the rent countries through the public revenue side of oil revenues. On the other hand, these fluctuations affect the balance of trade through the volume of oil exports, which lead to imbalance of trade surplus or deficit . &nbs
... Show MoreThe study aimed to reach the best rating for the views and variables in the totals characterized by qualities and characteristics common within each group and distinguish them from aggregates other for the purpose of distinguishing between Iraqi provinces which suffer from deprivation, for the purpose of identifying the status of those provinces in the early allowing interested parties and regulators to intervene to take appropriate corrective action in a timely manner. Style has been used cluster analysis Cluster analysis to reach the best rating to those totals from the provinces that suffer from problems, where the provinces were classified, based on the variables (Edu
... Show MoreStudying the past for its importance and connection with the present is reflected in a relative scale in the light of data and thought of the predecessors of a great nation like the Mesopotamia, where its civilization flourished and rose since the ancient times, which inspires the present with inherited meanings that might be an entity or recognized symbols in the establishment of a vision, system or architectural building. The researcher has crystallized the description of the past to enhance the vision of the present within what is required by the interior design specialty about the historical origins of education and the design of schools in the Mesopotamia, in addition to its ethnic and environmental specificity and the moral content
... Show MoreThe Iraqi market for securities in light of financial globalization faces real challenges at the local and international levels, which were reflected in their shadows on the overall economic reality, which imposed the necessity of making fundamental changes in terms of form and content, and from here stems the research problem in the ability of the Iraqi stock market to adapt to the transformations Financial imposed by financial globalization in light of the weakness of the economic structure and its position in the global economy. The research starts from the hypothesis that the Iraqi market for securities in light of financial globalization has an important and significant role in the economic field, through its role in stimula
... Show MoreForeign direct investment is considered one of important bases to blind economy for many. Countries as if the main stage for developing national economy ,so for this ,many of countries give great prominence to the role of drivel foreign investment due to its importance as one of economic growth pillars in the developing countries. They offer a support for modern technology, organizational and managerial skills.
Dneto the importance of direct foreign investment on the economic growth, today, we discover that Iraq in need to rebnlid the in frastructuve and renew what has been destroyed during was in many production and export institutions . as wel
... Show MoreAbstract:
The researcher shed light on a diet in Iraq before 2003 became in this period. And how the ration card has a variety of vocabulary and cover the need of the population of commodities and have a key role in saving Iraq from a real crisis in the period of economic siege, especially in light of the State's direction to support the agricultural sector, which in that period able to fill half of the market needs of food the basic. As well as providing strategic storage at the Ministry of Commerce enough for six months But after the events of 2003 and the crises that hit the country and the unstable security situation began to rise voices calling for reform of the ration card system as a system that is a burden on the
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