تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The demand for expatriate labor to Iraq increased after 2003 as a result of the openness that Iraq experienced, but this expatriate labor, which was requested at an increasing rate, has had economic, social, and political effects on the Iraqi economy in general, and the Iraqi labor market in particular. This is due to the high rates of unemployment, as most of these expatriate workers cause competition to local labor, and thus cause repercussions on the Iraqi economy as a whole, except for those expatriate workers coming with companies working in the oil sector. Iraq's GDP
Most countries in the world particularly developing countries, including Iraq, facing extremely dangerous problem with social and political dimensions, which is the emergence of the food crisis problem ,the decrease in domestic food production in Iraq isn't meet the needs of its population food, due to the fact that the agricultural sector suffers from multiple natural ,economic and human problems .It is still below the level required to meet the needs of the population of food ,since food at the forefront of priorities needed by the human . This represents indispensable basic necessity , so the responsibility of its availability permanently in appropriate&nb
... Show MoreThe paper aims to measure the impact of monetary policy on price stability , by testing the causal relationship between the money supply, inflation rate and the exchange rate , In order to prove that the inflation is a monetary phenomenon in the Iraqi economy , and that the exchange rate is controlled in the money supply , the money supply as an endogenous variable continued we found by using the standard tests to the existence of a single co-integration between the money supply and the rate of inflation and the money supply and the parallel exchange rate, This confirms the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables , It also confirmed the results of the vector error correctio
... Show MoreAbstract (Iraq post – war reconstruction strategy: analytical study in fact and future prospects.) There search aims at identifying the causes of internal instability in Iraq from the political ,economic , social and security aspects , to diagnose the imbalance and to work towards finding real solutions to this . The study also aims at identifying the reconstruction proposals to completely eliminate the organizationof the terrorist advocate, as well as to know. theproblem of research lies in the ability of Iraqi political elites to achieve internal stability and to employ reconstruction proposals at all levels . The hypothesis of the research lies in the equation that the process of building stability (political – economic)and (socia
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The research aim is to determine the relation between governmental consumption expenditure (GCE) & GDP in Iraq for the period 1981-2006.
The research has determined the scale of optimization for (GCE) & try to know the extent productivity of this expenditure and using the long run &short run model to test .The results clarify the following
1-The marginal productivity for the (GCE) is positive so it is productive.
2-The (GCE) in Iraq is too high because the marginal productivity for the expenditure less than 1.
3- The (GCE) percentage to GNP is
... Show MoreThe dividends is one of difficult and important decisions taken by the administration in the economic units, because this decision has a direct impact on the investor and economic unit, so the main objective of any investor is achieve earnings, as well as information borne by dividends about the earnings quality of the economic unit and the level and efficiency of management to achieving earnings.
The research aims at explaining the effect of the dividends policy on the earnings quality in the companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange. The Miller model was used to measu
... Show MoreIraqi economy has grown rapidly. Iraqi citizen, therefore, should be very much involved with the comprehensive development after his long patience. Such development should begin with him and his family to get the housing commodity, which is indeed not a cheap one.
In this regard, the Iraqi legislator drew attention to the necessity of issuing housing finan
... Show Moreلقد مثلت عملية التحول من النظام الشمولي الى مشروع اقامة نظام جديد ومغاير نقلة نوعية شهده المجتمع العراقي بعد 9/4/ 2003 القت بظلالها على مختلف الاصعدة السياسية والاقتصادية والاجتماعية، ولعل من بين ابرز تلك التحولات ذلك الذي تبلور على حول مفهوم الهوية الوطنية واعادة تشكيلها من خلال صياغة جديدة لمفهوم المواطنة الذي يفترض ان تكون القاعدة الراسخة التي يتأسس عليها المشروع الوطني الجديد الرامي الى إقامة او إعادة تأسي
... Show MoreAir pollution is considered one of the major environmental problems that contain many challenges and difficulties facing most countries of the world, including Iraq. The problem has emerged widely with the emergence of the industrial revolution in the world and the tremendous increase in the population and the increase in the number of transportation and its development in addition to excavation, maintenance and work Construction and weather fluctuations, such as dust and sandstorms, pollution resulting from oil refining, extraction, diversion and other processes that cause pollution, and the start of the world using methods that limit the volume of environmental pollution. The most prominent of these methods is the imposition of
... Show MoreIn this study the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) received by pediatrics patients undergoing chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examinations was estimated. The study was conducted in two hospitals in Najaf city where three radiographic systems were considered. The study participants were classified into four age groups 0-1 , 1-5 , 5-10 and 10-15 years. Calculations were performed using exposure factors, kVp, mAs and focal-skin distance, together with patient data age. The ESD was calculated for the involved patients who underwent an Antero-posterior (AP) chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examination. The resulted data were analyzed and compared with international dose references. For all studied radiographic examinations and all X-ray mac
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