Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

Background: Guillain Barré syndrome is an acute inflammatory demyelinating disease of the peripheral nerves. Its synonyms are: acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy, idiopathic polyneuritis, acute infective polyneuropathy and post infections polyneuritis. Objectives: We attempt to study the clinical presentations and complications in patients with GBS who were admitted to children welfare Teaching Hospital and to compare the results with the other studies.Type of the study: A retrospective study.Methods: A study done on seventy patients with GBS who were admitted to children Welfare Teaching Hospital in Medical City-Baghdad from different parts of Iraq between January 2002-December 2006.Results: Forty (57.14%) of them

In this article our goal is mixing ARMA models with EGARCH models and composing a mixed model ARMA(R,M)-EGARCH(Q,P) with two steps, the first step includes modeling the data series by using EGARCH model alone interspersed with steps of detecting the heteroscedasticity effect and estimating  the model's parameters and check the adequacy of the model. Also we are predicting the conditional variance and verifying it's convergence to the unconditional variance value. The second step includes mixing ARMA with EGARCH and using the mixed (composite) model in modeling time series data and predict future values then asses the prediction ability of the proposed model by using prediction error criterions.

The annual performance of a hybrid system of a flat plate photovoltaic thermal system and a solar thermal collector (PVT/ST) is numerically analyzed from the energy, exergy, and environmental (CO2 reduction) viewpoints. This system can produce electricity and thermal power simultaneously, with higher thermal power and exergy compared to conventional photovoltaic thermal systems. For this purpose, a 3D transient numerical model is developed for investigating the system's performance in four main steps: (1) investigating the effects of the mass flow rate of the working fluid (20 to 50 kg/h) on the temperature behavior and thermodynamic performance of the system, (2) studying the impacts of using glass covers on the different parts of the s

BACKGROUND: Diffuse astrocytomas constitute the largest group of primary malignant human intracranial tumours. They are classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) into three histological malignancy grades: diffuse astrocytomas (grade II), anaplastic astrocytomas (grade III) and glioblastoma (grade IV) based on histopathological features such as cellular atypia, mitotic activity, necrosis and microvascular proliferation. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is a 170-kDa transmembrane tyrosine kinase receptor expressed in a variety of normal and malignant cells regulating critical cellular processes. When activated, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) triggers several signalling cascades leading to increased proliferatio

The present study was designed to shed light on the molecular effects caused by acute myeloid leukemia (AML). It was also aimed to investigate ASXL1 point mutations in newly AML patients as compared to healthy control. The study comprised of 43 AML Iraqi patients and their ages ranged between 16-75 years. It included 23 females and 20 males compared with 20 healthy controls. Results revealed that the extracted DNA from 30 AML patients and amplified by PCR to obtain ASXL1 gene from exon 12 showed larger bands (479). Among forty three patients, two of them displayed point mutations of deletion and substitution, while the others were normal since no mutations were detected. The total of mutations in two mutated patients was 27 mutations, the m

Abstract: The premise of the study is that populism is a process of building political views and critical intellectual orientations among the general public. It is transformed into mass beliefs by mobilizing the society ideologically and continuously in order to reach or control the circle of authority. We distributed the study topics to four sections: In the second, we will discuss the contents of contemporary populism and how other forms of populism evolved historically. The third is to discuss the political discourse of populism among the military regimes and the comparative Islamic parties in the Middle East, especially in terms of the essence and the intellectual foundations. The fourth section seeks to examine the characteristics o