The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results
In this research, has been to building a multi objective Stochastic Aggregate Production Planning model for General al Mansour company Data with Stochastic demand under changing of market and uncertainty environment in aim to draw strong production plans. The analysis to derive insights on management issues regular and extra labour costs and the costs of maintaining inventories and good policy choice under the influence medium and optimistic adoption of the model of random has adoption form and had adopted two objective functions total cost function (the core) and income and function for a random template priority compared with fixed forms with objective function and the results showed that the model of two phases wit
... Show Moreتقدير النموذج اللوجستي باستخدام اوزان بيز المتسلسل
Abstract
Rayleigh distribution is one of the important distributions used for analysis life time data, and has applications in reliability study and physical interpretations. This paper introduces four different methods to estimate the scale parameter, and also estimate reliability function; these methods are Maximum Likelihood, and Bayes and Modified Bayes, and Minimax estimator under squared error loss function, for the scale and reliability function of the generalized Rayleigh distribution are obtained. The comparison is done through simulation procedure, t
... Show Moreيدرس هذا البحث طرائق اختزال الابعاد التي تعمل على تجاوز مشكلة البعدية عندما تفشل الطرائق التقليدية في ايجاد تقدير جيد للمعلمات، لذلك يتوجب التعامل مع هذه المشكلة بشكل مباشر. ومن اجل ذلك، يجب التخلص من هذه المشكلة لذا تم استعمال اسلوبين لحل مشكلة البيانات ذات الابعاد العالية الاسلوب الاول طريقة الانحدار الشرائحي المعكوس SIR ) ) والتي تعتبر طريقة غير كلاسيكية وكذلك طريقة ( WSIR ) المقترحة والاسلوب الثاني طري
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The study aims at building a mathematical model for the aggregate production planning for Baghdad soft drinks company. The study is based on a set of aggregate planning strategies (Control of working hours, storage level control strategy) for the purpose of exploiting the resources and productive capacities available in an optimal manner and minimizing production costs by using (Matlab) program. The most important finding of the research is the importance of exploiting during the available time of production capacity. In the months when the demand is less than the production capacity available for investment. In the subsequent months when the demand exceeds the available energy and to minimize the use of overti
... Show Moreإن الأبحاث العلمية كانت و لا تزال تحضا باهتمام الكثير من العلماء و المختصين في مجال التربية الرياضية بشكل عام و الجمناستك بشكل خاص لإيجاد أحدث الوسائل و الأدوات التي تساعد على سهولة توصيل المعلومات إلى المتعلمين و بدرجة عالية من الكفاءة, إذ يمكن للمتعلم الاستعانة بوسائل تعليمية عديدة منها القراءات المختلفة و المواد المبرمجة أو الأفلام و الوسائل السمعية و البصرية و ما إلى ذلك, فالمعلم الذي يستخدم هذه الوسائل
... Show Moreتعد مشكلة الضبابية في انجاز المشاريع وبخاصة مشاريع االبنية من المشاكل المهمة التي ينبغي وضع حلول مناسبة لها بغية الحصول على مشروع متكامل وناجح وضمن المواصفات القياسية المطلوبة من خالل االلتزام بوقت االنجاز واستثمار الموارد المتاحة للجهة المنفذة للمشروع افضل استثمار ، ان هذه المشكلة ناتجة عن معلومات او بيانات غير واضحة تعاني من الغموض او بسبب وجود نقص فيها سواء كانت متعلقة بوقت او بتكلفة انجاز المشاريع له
... Show MoreIn this paper , two method which deal with finding the optimal value for adaptive smoothing constant, are compared .This constant is used in adaptive Single Exponential Smoothing (ASES).
The comparing is between a method uses time domain and another uses frequency domain when the data contain outlier value for autoregressive model of order one AR(1) , or Markov Model, when the time series are stationary and non stationary with deferent samples .
In this research we study a variance component model, Which is the one of the most important models widely used in the analysis of the data, this model is one type of a multilevel models, and it is considered as linear models , there are three types of linear variance component models ,Fixed effect of linear variance component model, Random effect of linear variance component model and Mixed effect of linear variance component model . In this paper we will examine the model of mixed effect of linear variance component model with one –way random effect ,and the mixed model is a mixture of fixed effect and random effect in the same model, where it contains the parameter (μ) and treatment effect (τi ) which has
... Show MoreThe idea of carrying out research on incomplete data came from the circumstances of our dear country and the horrors of war, which resulted in the missing of many important data and in all aspects of economic, natural, health, scientific life, etc.,. The reasons for the missing are different, including what is outside the will of the concerned or be the will of the concerned, which is planned for that because of the cost or risk or because of the lack of possibilities for inspection. The missing data in this study were processed using Principal Component Analysis and self-organizing map methods using simulation. The variables of child health and variables affecting children's health were taken into account: breastfeed
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