Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Background: Periodontal diseases (PD) are common chronic inflammatory diseases caused by pathogenic microorganisms colonizing the gingival area and inducing local and systemic elevations of pro-inflammatory cytokines resulting in tissue destruction by a destructive inflammatory process. Stress was considered as one of the important risk factors that cause many inflammatory diseases including PD. The purpose of this study wasto determines and compares clinical periodontal parameters (PLI, GI and BOP), stress level and salivary IL-1? level among dental students before, during and after mid-year exam, also to find the correlation among stress, IL-1? and clinical periodontal parameters. Materials and methods: The sample was consisted of 24 dent

4-amino-3-(4-(((4-hydroxy-3, 5dimethoxybenzyl) oxy) methyl) phenyl)-1, 2, 4-triazole-5-thione was synthesized by to method the first one from melt reaction of 4-(((4-hydroxy-3, 5-dimethoxybenzyl) oxy) methyl) benzoic acid with Thiocarbonyldihydrazide, the second method from convert the corresponded acid hydrazide to potassium 2-(4-(((4-hydroxy-3, 5-dimethoxybenzyl) oxy) methyl) benzoyl) hydrazinecarbodithioate salt then react with hydrazine hydrate. Newly Schiff base (7a-7f) were synthesized from reaction the 4-amino-1, 2, 4-triazol with substituted hydroxybenzaldehyde. The resulting compounds were characterized by IR, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and HRMS data. 2, 2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazide (DPPH) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) assays

This study is conducted to investigate the validity of using different levels of Rustumiya sewage water for irrigation and their effects on corn growth and some of the chemical properties of the soil such as electrical conductivity and soil pH in extract soil paste , the micro nutrient content in soil and plant which are ( Fe , Mn , Zn , Cu , Cd , Pb ). Three levels of sewage water ( 0 , 50 , 100 )% in two stages were used ,the three levels of wastewater ( without soil fertilization ) were used in the first stage , Where 80 Kg N /D+50Kg P2O5 /D was added to the soil as fertilizer in the control (0%) treatment and 40 Kg N/D+25Kg P2O5/D were added to 50 and 100% levels in the second stage .Corn seeds were planted in 12kg plastic pots in Com

Background: Diabetes mellitus consists of a group of diseases characterized by abnormally high blood glucose levels. Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) is a form of haemoglobin used to identify the average concentration of plasma glucose over prolonged periods of time. It is formed in a non-enzymatic pathway by normal exposure of hemoglobin to high levels of plasma glucose, The main alterations observed in the saliva of Type 1 diabetic patients are hyposalivation and alteration in its composition, particularly those related to the levels of glucose. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of Glycated haemoglobin level on the level of salivary glucose which may have an effect on oral health condition. Materials and methods

From different hospitals in Baghdad city, 25 clinical isolates of Proteus spp. were collected from different clinical samples, all isolates were identified as Proteus mirabilis by using bacteriological and biochemical assays in addition to Vitek-2 identification system. 15 (60%) isolates were identifying as Proteus mirabilis. The susceptibility of P. mirabilis isolates towards cefotaxime and ceftazidime was (66.6 %), (20%) consecutively; while extended spectrum β-lactamases producing P. mirabilis percentage was (30.7 %). Because blaVEB-1 was documented as an important indicator for increasing risk of extended spectrum beta ßlactamases producing P. mirabilis isolates that began to spread from many geographic area to Far east which inc

Vapor-liquid equilibrium data are presented for the binary systems n-hexane - 1-propanol, benzene - 1-propanol and n-hexane – benzene at 760 mm of mercury pressure. In addition ternary data are presented at selected compositions with respect to the 1-propanol in the 1-propanol, benzene, n-hexane system at 760 mmHg. The results indicate the relative volatility of n-hexane relative to benzene increases appreciably with addition of 1-propanol.

This research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc

The importance of media coverage in the war remains dependent on many indicators for its success, the most important is to have qualified reporters who carry the war news professionally. The idea of this research is to determine the role played by war correspondents working on Iraqi satellite channels during the war against ISIS.
The researcher has chosen ( 40 ) reporters those who was able to contact them and prepared a questionnaire for them to study their situations. Also, he chose an intentional sample from Baghdad audience on condition they should be informed by the performance of the reporters in the satellite channels applying the hypotheses of the theory of depending upon media.
The most important results reached by the re