The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of a prey-predator system incorporating infectious disease in the prey has been proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that the predator preys upon the nonrefugees prey only according to the modified Holling type-II functional response. There is a harvesting process from the predator. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in addition to their bounded are discussed. The stability analysis of the model around all possible equilibrium points is investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation analysis in view of the Sotomayor theorem is carried out. Numerical simulation has been applied to investigate the global dynamics and specify the effect

The art of batik is one of the ancient arts that has a long history in East Asian countries, especially in Indonesia, where it was considered a traditional craft with which many Indonesian tribes lived. This art began to move to other continents and develops and progresses due to the artist’s connection to the surrounding technological and intellectual development, as art became more outgoing and liberated, it helped the artist to create and innovate in his designs. In this research, he focuses on modern performance methods through which print paintings can be produced through design elements, especially calligraphy, to create aesthetic and creative effects in the productive work. The current research aims to identify the various perfo

The unbalanced distribution of investments in the economic fields of the 1950s had a negative impact on the overall economic life of the country in that period and subsequent periods. Since the 1960s, the planning agencies have tried to reduce the negative impact of imbalance in regional development and the emergence of disparities in development between the regions of the country and to identify disparities in levels of spatial development. At the planning level, there have been many studies and mathematical and statistical models to analyze variance and clarify its dimensions and to measure the degree of developmental disparity between Regions and means of narrowing this problem and the development of policies and strategies for develo

Particulate matter (PM) emitted from diesel engine exhaust have been measured in terms of mass, using
99.98 % pure ethanol blended directly, without additives, with conventional diesel fuel (gas – oil),to
get 10 % , 15 %, 20 % ethanol emulsions . The resulting PM collected has been compared with those
from straight diesel. The engine used is a stationary single cylinder, variable compression ratio Ricardo
E6/US. This engine is fully instrumented and could run as a compression or spark ignition.
Observations showed that particulate matter (PM) emissions decrease with increasing oxygenate
content in the fuel, with some increase of fuel consumption, which is due to the lower heating value of
ethanol. The reduction in

the history of the Scouting movement reflects the global social cultural and technological change over more than a century. scouting aims to develop young people worldwide through educational programs based on specific principles and values. in arab countries, the scouting movement is considered one of the most important platforms contributing to developing young people and enhancing their rule. positive in society, began with the establishment of the first Scout camp in the region and witnessed great growth and prosperity over the decades the research reveals the historical roots and development of the scout movement in the leading arab countries and analyzes the positive impact of scout movement in the leading arab countries on the develo

This research shows the problem of the economic development of underdeveloped countries in an unconventional way, as these papers explain the problems of the economic development. This research not only reviews the problems, but it illustrates them in a philosophical way, basis of the data of modernity, this mean it is a process of connecting between the absence of the modernity values and the failure of development in underdeveloped countries. The Search follows the descriptive approach to get to the goal of search by four main axes. The first axis includes clarifying  modernity and its principles, the second axis includes clarifying the economic development , the third axis includes the features of the mod

Abstract

The traffic jams taking place in the cities of the Republic of Iraq in general and the province of Diwaniyah especially, causes return to the large numbers of the modern vehicles that have been imported in the last ten years and the lack of omission for old vehicles in the province, resulting in the accumulation of a large number of vehicles that exceed the capacity of the city's streets, all these reasons combined led to traffic congestion clear at the time of the beginning of work in the morning, So researchers chose local area network of the main roads of the province of Diwaniyah, which is considered the most important in terms of traffic congestion, it was identified  fuzzy numbers for

The performance of H2S sensor based on poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA)-CdS nanocomposite fabricated by spray pyrolysis technique has been reported. XRD pattern diffraction peaks of nano CdS has been indexed to the hexagonally wurtzite structured The nanocomposite exhibits semiconducting behavior with optical energy gap of4.06eV.SEM morphology appears almost tubes like with CdS/PMMA network. That means the addition of CdS to polymer increases the roughness in the film and provides high surface to volume ratio, which helps gas molecule to adsorb on these tubes. The resistance of PMMA-CdS nanocomposite showed a considerable change when exposed to H2S gas. Fast response time to detect H2S gas was achieved by using PMMA-CdS thin film sensor. The