Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Flow-production systems whose pieces are connected in a row may not have maintenance scheduling procedures fixed because problems occur at different times (electricity plants, cement plants, water desalination plants). Contemporary software and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are used to fulfill the research objectives by developing a predictive maintenance program. The data of the fifth thermal unit of the power station for the electricity of Al Dora/Baghdad are used in this study. Three stages of research were conducted. First, missing data without temporal sequences were processed. The data were filled using time series hour after hour and the times were filled as system working hours, making the volume of the data relativel

Fibroepithelioma of Pinkus (FEP) is a slowly growing, low-grade malignant tumor with very low metastatic potential that is considered a distinct variant of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). It usually manifests as sessile or polypoidal lesions on the trunk of middle-aged patients. However, it may present in younger age groups, even in children. In this case, we present a rare case of FEP atypically presenting as a scaly plaque on the lower back for several years in an elderly female who was eventually diagnosed by excisional biopsy and histopathology.

Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong wille

Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong w

Background: Nutritional status during childhood is very important for individual development and growth. Nutrition has local and systemic effect on the oral health by affecting dental health and salivary composition. This study was aimed to determine effect of iron, sodium and potassium ions in saliva on the nutritional status and to determine the effect of nutritional status on caries severity among preschool children. Material and Methods: The sample consists of 90 children aged 4 and 5 years of both genders, selected from 6 kindergartens in Al-Resafa aspect of Baghdad province. Children classified according to their nutritional status into three groups (normalweight, underweight and overweight). Nutritional status was determined by usi

The aim of this paper is to identify Nano-particles that have been used in diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis in Iraq. All experiments conducted in this field were based on the following nanoparticles: gold nanoparticles, silver nanoparticles, zinc nanoparticles, and sodium chloride nanoparticles. Most of these experiments were reviewed in terms of differences in the concentrations of nanoparticles and the method that was used in the experiments whether it was in vivo or in vitro. These particles used in most experiments succeeded in inhibiting the growth of Leishmania parasites.

The aim of the research is to identify the extent of the direct and indirect relationship of the population growth of the cities as a result of the urbanization process witnessed by the Arab region for the urban development of the city structures and their formative structures, changing the planning criteria of some cities and the extent of their changes in spatial and temporal dimensions and their relation to the standards of the western cities. In changing the concept of the modern Arab city, such as the emergence of new functional uses affecting the change in the pattern of formal formations of its urban fabric associated with its ancient morphology and distinctive human nature. The research seeks to identify the extent to which plann

Fifteen local isolates of Pseudomonas were obtained from several sources such as soil, water and some high-fat foods (Meat, olives, coconuts, etc.). The ability of isolates to produce lipase was measured by the size of clear zone on Tween 20 solid medium and by measuring the enzymatic activity and specific activity. Isolate M3 (as named in this study) was found to be the most efficient for the production of the lipase with enzymatic activity reached 56.6 U/ml and specific activity of 305.94 U/mg. This isolate was identified through genetic analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. and it was shown that the isolate M3 belongs to Pseudomonas aeruginosa with 99% similarity. The DNA of isolate M3 was extracted and lipase gene was amplified through PCR tec