There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

    This article aims to explore the importance of estimating the a semiparametric regression function ,where we suggest a new estimator beside the other combined estimators and then we make a comparison among them by using simulation technique . Through the simulation results we find  that the suggest estimator is the best with the first and second models ,wherealse for the third model we find Burman and Chaudhuri (B&C) is best.

Recently heavy rainfall that occurs in last decade for Baghdad city is part of climate changes effect on Iraq in general and Baghdad in particular. Rain is considered the main part in the water cycle as it enters mainly within the water system and water balance; therefore present study put of a special criterion to determine the amount of rainfall and analyzed in order to quantify the amount and the diagnosis of heavy rain. The availability of data by Iraqi Metrological  Organization  and Seismology (IMOS) for time period (1985/1986-2014/2015) held achieve the research objective .There are many statistical methods figure out  the difference to determine the amount of rain, Climatology mean  (C M) is one of them specia

In this research, the covariance estimates were used to estimate the population mean in the stratified random sampling and combined regression estimates. were compared by employing the robust variance-covariance matrices estimates with combined regression estimates by employing the traditional variance-covariance matrices estimates when estimating the regression parameter, through the two efficiency criteria (RE) and mean squared error (MSE). We found that robust estimates significantly improved the quality of combined regression estimates by reducing the effect of outliers using robust covariance and covariance matrices estimates (MCD, MVE) when estimating the regression parameter. In addition, the results of the simulation study proved

In this research work an attempt has been made to investigate about the Robustness of the Bayesian Information criterion to estimate the order of the autoregressive process when the error of this model,  Submits to a specific distributions and different cases of the time series on various size of samples by using the simulation,  This criterion has been studied by depending on ten distributions, they are (Normal, log-Normal, continues uniform, Gamma , Exponential, Gamble, Cauchy, Poisson, Binomial, Discrete uniform) distributions, and then it has been reached to many collection and recommendations related to this object , when the series residual variable is subject to each  ( Poisson , Binomial , Exponential , Dis

Test anxiety for intermediate level The current study aims to measure the test anxiety of research’s sample and to identify the statistical differences of test anxiety, considering two variables gender and students classes level (first and third intermediate class). To do this, a stratified random sampling of (300) student from first and third intermediate classes had selected from both the karkh and Rusafa sides of Baghdad province for the academic year 2015-2016. The author tested the whole sample by using the test anxiety scale that had tested for its validity and reliability. The results revealed that the research’s sample as a whole was suffering from test anxiety, there were a statistical differences between male and female tha

  Weibull distribution is considered as one of the most widely  distribution applied in real life, Its similar to normal distribution in the way of applications, it's also considered as one of the distributions that can applied in many fields such as industrial engineering to represent replaced and manufacturing time ,weather forecasting, and other scientific uses in reliability studies and survival function in medical and communication engineering fields.

   In this paper, The scale parameter has been estimated for weibull distribution using Bayesian method based on Jeffery prior information as a first method , then enhanced by improving Jeffery prior information and then used as a se

     A multivariate control chart is measured by many variables that are correlated in production, using the quality characteristics in any product. In this paper, statistical procedures were employed to find the multivariate quality control chart by utilizing fuzzy Hotelling  test. The procedure utilizes the triangular membership function to treat the real data, which were collected from Baghdad Soft Drinks Company in Iraq. The quality of production was evaluated by using a new method of the ranking function.