Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

To determine the relationship between Helicobacter pylori infection and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) disorder, 20 patients with MS aged (25-60) years have been investigated from the period of 2016/12/1 to 2017/3/1 and compared to 15 apparently healthy individuals. All study groups were carried out to measure anti H.pylori IgA and H.pylori IgG antibodies by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. There was a significant elevation (p<0.05) in the concentration of anti H.pylori IgG and IgA antibodies (Abs) compared to control group, and there was no significant difference (p>0.05) in the concentration of IgA and IgG (Abs) of H.pylori according to gender, and there was no significant difference (p>0.05) in the concentration of IgA and I

This research presents a new study in reactive distillation by adopting a consecutive reaction . The adopted consecutive reaction was the saponification reaction of diethyl adipate with NaOH solution. The saponification reaction occurs in two steps. The distillation process had the role of withdrawing the intermediate product i.e. monoethyl adipate from the reacting mixture before the second conversion to disodium adipate occurred. It was found that monoethyl adipate appeared successfully in the distillate liquid. The percentage conversion from di-ester to monoester was greatly enhanced (reaching 86%) relative to only 15.3% for the case of reaction without distillation .This means 5 times enhancement . The presence of two layers in both the

The effect of using grinded rocks of (quartzite and porcelanite) as powder of (10 and 20) % replacement by weight of cement for self-compacting concrete slabs was investigated in this study. Five slabs with 15 concrete cubes were tested experimentally at 28 days to study the compressive strength, ultimate load, ultimate deflection, ductility, crack load and steel strain. The test results show that, the compressive strength improvement when replacement of local rock powder reached to (7.3, 4.22) % for (10 and 20) % quartzite powder and (11.3, 16.1) % for (10 and 20) % porcelanite powder, respectively compared to the reference specimen. The ultimate load percentage increase for slabs with (10 and 20) % rep

In this work, the behavior of reinforced concrete columns under biaxial bending is studied. This work aims at studying the strengthening of columns by using carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP). The experimental work includes investigation of eight reinforced concrete columns (150*150*500mm) tested under several load conditions. Variables considered in the test program include; effect of eccentricity and effect of longitudinal reinforcement (Ø12mm or Ø6mm). Test results are discussed based on load – lateral deflection behavior, load –longitudinal deflection behavior, ultimate load and failure modes. The CFRP reinforcement permits
a complete change in the failure mode of the columns .The effect of longitudinal reinforcement in

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection is ubiquitous and successfully reactivated in patients with immune dysfunction as in patient with multiple myeloma (MM), causing a wide range of life-threatening diseases. Early detection of HCMV and significant advances in MM management has amended patient outcomes and prolonged survival rates.