تعد الحروب أحد أخطر التهديدات في النظام العالمي; فهي تعد خرقا للقوانين والاعراف الدولية، والمبادئ الإنسانية، و من هنا تأتي دراسة أهمية موضوعنا الموسوم بـ (الاحتمالات المستقبلية للحرب الروسية – الأوكرانية و مدى انعكاسها على أمن دول شرق أوربا بعد العام 2022 ،)اذ يرتكز هذا البحث على دراسة واستعراض الاحتمالات المستقبلية )السيناريوهات) للحرب الروسية – الأوكرانية، والتي شنت من الحكومة الروسية بقيادة الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين في شباط عام 2022م، وهي لاتزال مستمرة حتى كتابة هذا البحث. تنطلق فرضية بحثنا من فكرة مفادها: ان محاولة استشراف المسارات المستقبلية للحرب الروسية-الأوكرانية بعد العام 2022م من خلال وضع احتمالات )سيناريوهات متعددة وتحليلها وفق المجريات و الأدلة الداعمة لكل احتمال (سيناريو) من ضمنها حل انهاء الحرب، و هو المرجح و الذي يتوقع أن يكون بترضية لروسيا; الا ان روسيا لن تقبل بالانسحاب دون مقابل أو ابقاء المناطق المسيطر عليها من روسيا وضمها اليها. كما حدث في شبه جزيرة القرم عام 2014م، أو تقاسم النفوذ بين الغرب وروسيا، للغرب نفوذ اقتصادي في أوكرانيا، وروسيا تحتفظ بنفوذها العسكري.
Abstract
This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi
... Show Moreان مرتكزات السياسة الخارجية العراقية لمرحلة ما بعد العام 2003 قد عكست توجهات ايجابية قادت الى صياغة مجموعة من الرؤى والتصورات الاستراتيجية الجديدة التي افضت الى اعتماد وتوظيف الوسائل والقنوات الدبلوماسية بوصفها وسائل فعالة وبطريقة متكاملة ومتوازنة من اجل تعزيز مستويات الاداء الفعلي وتحقيق جميع الاهداف المستقبلية للسياسة الخارجية العراقية في ضوء صياغة معادلة مفادها: تدعيم وترصين اداء مؤسسات صنع السياسة ال
... Show MoreThe industrial production sector has an important role in the national economy of the advanced countries as well as the developing ones to get higher levels for their economy . We in Iraq , just like most of the develpoing countries , our economy still suffers of great shortage in this active sector in spite of the repeated statements about the desire of activating the contribution of this sector in the national economy . The industrial sector in Iraq suffers in general of many problems , especially the public industrial sector (manufacturing) . These problems have been existed because of the unnatural conditions that Iraq has passed during the previous decades especially in the political and security sides . which reflecte
... Show Moreيمر عالمنا المعاصر اليوم بمرحلة من التطور والتغيير السريعين لم يسبق له أن مر بهما فـي تاريخ البشرية ، ويشمل مظاهر الحياة الأنسانية والأقتصادية والعلمية والتربويـة والنفسية وغير ذلك . وتختلف سرعة هذا التغيير من مجتمع الـى مجتمع آخر , وأدى هذا الى تراكم كميات كبيرة من المعلومات .
لقد أكد الكثير مـن التربويين أن التطور التكنولوجي فـي ال
... Show MoreCriticism is inherently impolite and a face-threatening act generally leading to conflicts among interlocutors. It is equally challenging for both native and non-native speakers, and needs pre-planning before performing it. The current research examines the production of non-institutional criticism by Iraqi EFL university learners and American native speakers. More specifically, it explores to what extent Iraqi EFL learners and American native speakers vary in (i) performing criticism, (ii) mitigating criticism, and (iii) their pragmatic choices according to the contextual variables of power and distance. To collect data, a discourse-completion task was used to elicit written data from 20 Iraqi EFL learners and 20 American native speaker
... Show Moreان مرتكزات السياسة الخارجية العراقية لمرحلة ما بعد العام 2003 قد عكست توجهات ايجابية قادت الى صياغة مجموعة من الرؤى والتصورات الاستراتيجية الجديدة التي افضت الى اعتماد وتوظيف الوسائل والقنوات الدبلوماسية بوصفها وسائل فعالة وبطريقة متكاملة ومتوازنة من اجل تعزيز مستويات الاداء الفعلي وتحقيق جميع الاهداف المستقبلية للسياسة الخارجية العراقية في ضوء صياغة معادلة مفادها: تدعيم وترصين اداء مؤسسات صنع السياسة ال
... Show MoreThe paper aims to measure and analysis the impact Public Spending on Iraq economy (Kaldor Variables).
(variables of the magic square Kaldor) and them in after 2003.
The paper adopted econometric Methods to test the stationarity of the Variables under consideration. For the period (2005-2016) by using multiple regression and estimation the Impulse response function (IRF), by adopting Eviews 10 program.
The results of Impulse response function for the following five-years after the period under consideration reflexes that public expenditure (PEX) was fluctuating between positive and negative in all the variables of the research and this shows the fragility of the performance of fiscal policy in Iraq.
T
... Show MoreResearch summary
Perhaps the methods of mask that Arab poets resorted to in our time are due to the conditions of oppression and political and social repression that the Arab poet suffered from; So he strived to circumvent it, and it became a justification for hiding behind it. The research is available on a number of topics that lead to the definition of the mask technique and the beginning of its prevalence in Arabic literature after the Second World War, especially in recent decades by benefiting from historical stories, fairy tales and legends of all kinds. As well as defining the mask idiomatically and linguistically, and the beginning of its use in ancient religious rituals, and the special place it had in Greek plays. Poets
... Show MoreFollowing the political development in Iraq Since 7112 exposed kind of political traditions about how to manage the conflicts that have different Iraqi powers .That what was clear since the formation of permanent government since in 7112 .
The case of conflict between political powers in administrating Iraq state and the withdrawal of American Forcesintroduces questions:
0-Is it possible that that the beginning of Iraq state building shall ease this conflict and peacemaking in the post-conflict period?
7- To what extent the Iraqi powerswas to manage their disputes in non-military like elections which was held in 7112?
2- What is the range of the extent of the political operation after the American withdrawal?
The important
The artistic process operates whether in general in all arts or specifically in one type of arts or one of the genres of arts types on the preoccupations of the pressing artistic references as the founder of the artistic work in the material formulations on the one hand and on the other hand as a translator to understand the artistic achievement in general and plastic art in particular and for the importance The researcher chose the title of her research tagged (the preoccupations of the pressing reference and its impact on the formations of postmodern arts).
The first chapter of the methodological framework deals with the problem of research, importance, objective, limits, and then terminology and its definition, and then the secon