Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Fiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).

It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha

The constructivist learning model is one of the models of constructivist theory in learning, as it generally emphasizes the active role of the learner during learning, in addition to that the intellectual and actual participation in the various activities to help students gain the skills of analyzing artistic works. The current research aims to know the effectiveness of the constructivist learning model in the acquisition of the skills of the Institute of Fine Arts for the skills of (technical work analysis). To achieve the goal, the researcher formulated the following hypothesis: There are no statistically significant differences between the average scores of the experimental group students in the skill test for analyzing artworks befor

The behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.

      Detecting and subtracting the Motion objects from backgrounds is one of the most important areas. The development of cameras and their widespread use in most areas of security, surveillance, and others made face this problem. The difficulty of this area is unstable in the classification of the pixels (foreground or background). This paper proposed a suggested background subtraction algorithm based on the histogram. The classification threshold is adaptively calculated according to many tests. The performance of the proposed algorithms was compared with state-of-the-art methods in complex dynamic scenes.

The exponential growth of audio data shared over the internet and communication channels has raised significant concerns about the security and privacy of transmitted information. Due to high processing requirements, traditional encryption algorithms demand considerable computational effort for real-time audio encryption. To address these challenges, this paper presents a permutation for secure audio encryption using a combination of Tent and 1D logistic maps. The audio data is first shuffled using Tent map for the random permutation. The high random secret key with a length equal to the size of the audio data is then generated using a 1D logistic map. Finally, the Exclusive OR (XOR) operation is applied between the generated key and the sh

   Nanoparticles (NPs) have unique capabilities that make them an eye-opener opportunity for the upstream oil industry. Their nano-size allows them to flow within reservoir rocks without the fear of retention between micro-sized pores. Incorporating NPs with drilling and completion fluids has proved to be an effective additive that improves various properties such as mud rheology, filtration, thermal conductivity, and wellbore stability. However, the biodegradability of drilling fluid chemicals is becoming a global issue as the discharged wetted cuttings raise toxicity concerns and environmental hazards. Therefore, it is urged to utilize chemicals that tend to break down and susceptible to biodegradation. This research presents the pra

Skull image separation is one of the initial procedures used to detect brain abnormalities. In an MRI image of the brain, this process involves distinguishing the tissue that makes up the brain from the tissue that does not make up the brain. Even for experienced radiologists, separating the brain from the skull is a difficult task, and the accuracy of the results can vary quite a little from one individual to the next. Therefore, skull stripping in brain magnetic resonance volume has become increasingly popular due to the requirement for a dependable, accurate, and thorough method for processing brain datasets. Furthermore, skull stripping must be performed accurately for neuroimaging diagnostic systems since neither non-brain tissues nor

Secure information transmission over the internet is becoming an important requirement in data communication. These days, authenticity, secrecy, and confidentiality are the most important concerns in securing data communication. For that reason, information hiding methods are used, such as Cryptography, Steganography and Watermarking methods, to secure data transmission, where cryptography method is used to encrypt the information in an unreadable form. At the same time, steganography covers the information within images, audio or video. Finally, watermarking is used to protect information from intruders. This paper proposed a new cryptography method by using thre

Merging biometrics with cryptography has become more familiar and a great scientific field was born for researchers. Biometrics adds distinctive property to the security systems, due biometrics is unique and individual features for every person. In this study, a new method is presented for ciphering data based on fingerprint features. This research is done by addressing plaintext message based on positions of extracted minutiae from fingerprint into a generated random text file regardless the size of data. The proposed method can be explained in three scenarios. In the first scenario the message was used inside random text directly at positions of minutiae in the second scenario the message was encrypted with a choosen word before ciphering