Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This study aims to design unified  electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed  the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of  using papers to count absence,  with  a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.

            In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst

One hundred twelve urine samples were collected from Baghdad hospitals and examined by different identification techniques. Seventy isolates (62.5%) were diagnosed as Escherichia coli after microscopic and cultural identifications. The result of PCR product electrophoresis on the isolates showed that thirteen isolates (18.57%) have Pap E gene which are uropathogenic E. coli. Antibiotic susceptibility test was done, and four high resistant strains were mixed with aqueous extract of Quercus infectoria plant in 96 well ELISA plate and incubated for different times. After 0, 6, and 12 hr. of incubation, the effect of the plant extract on the bacterial growth was determined by ELISA reader, and the effect on the expression of P

This article discusses how women have significant abilities to cope with the difficulties of war times. They are not the weak and vulnerable victims who are thought to be. On the contrary, they have the power to control over many-sided fronts, like participating in the battlefield as nurses or activists for peace, or even fighters, as well as through the tasks and responsibilities assigned to them to protect and support their families during wartime. The researcher will examine the impact of war upon women. Like men, women suffer during wartime. They are being injured, tortured and killed. Yet, they are able to give examples of love and courage even in the difficult times of war. Hana is one of those women who lived during wartimes,

Deception is an inseparable facet of political discourse in attaining strategic political gains though compromising public opinion. However, the employment of discursive deception strategies by the policy-making institutions of think tanks has not received due attention in the literature. The current study aims at exploring how the ideologizing deception strategies are utilized by the conservative American think tank of the Washington Institute to reproduce socio-political realities and re-shape public opinion. To fulfill this task, van Dijk’s (2000) notion of ideological polarization which shows positive self-representation and negative other representation is adopted to conduct a critical discourse analysis of four Arabic texts relea

In this study, pebble bed as an absorber and storage material was placed in a south facing, flat plate air-type solar collector at fixed tilt angle of (45°). The effect of this material and differ- ent parameters on collector efficiency has been investigated experimentally and
theoretically. Two operation modes were employed to study the performance of the solar air heater. An inte- grated mode of continuous operation of the system during the period of (11:00 am – 3:00 pm) and non-integrated mode in which the system stored the solar energy through the day then used the stored energy during the period of (3:00 pm – 8:00 pm). The results of parametric study in case of continuous operating showed that the maximum average temperatur

Objective: The present work was undertaken to investigate the impact of sub inhibitory concentration of gentamicin on hla gene expression in methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus isolates. Methods: The bacterial isolates used in this study represent 33 MRSA strains, previously isolated form patients visiting several hospitals in Baghdad. Gentamicin, vancomycin, and oxacillin MIC were determined using broth dilution method. Microtiter plate method was adopted to investigate the biofilm forming capacity. Alpha hemolysin was detected by culturing MRSA isolates on rabbit blood agar. Furthermore, hla gene was detected in MRSA isolates using conventional PCR technique; while, qRT-PCR method was performed to assay the hla expression in plank

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia is a group of autosomal recessive disorders. The most frequent one is 21-hydroxylase deficiency. Analyzing CYP21A2 gene mutations was so far not reported in Iraq. This work aims to analyze the spectrum and frequency of CYP21A2 mutations among Iraqi CAH patients. Sixty-two children were recruited from the Pediatric Endocrine Consultation Clinic, Children Welfare Teaching Hospital, Baghdad, Iraq, from September 2014 till June 2015. Their ages ranged between one day and 15 years. They presented with salt wasting, simple virilization, or pseudoprecocious puberty. Cytogenetic study was performed for cases with ambiguous genitalia. Molecular analysis of