Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Twelve pends were selected and distributed on three verticals transects paths on the Tigers river in Al Rasheed county.Passing through land covers, that classified and covers the whole region. Based on the 8 Landsat of the year 2015. It was oriental classified by using Erdas 10.2 . The pedons were distributed on the area of each varicty of these classes. the series of soil according of the transect series (DW74,MMg,DMu6 , Df96) respectively were represented P₁ , P₂ , P₃ , P₄  .

The second transits series(DM97,MM5,DM96,DF115) respectively were  represented P₅ , P₆ , P₇ , P₈  .The third  transits series(DM46,MMg,MF12,MM11) re

The purpose of this study was to investigate the difference in mandibular trauma caused by two mechanisms for the delivery of missile injuries: firearms and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The data investigated included sex, age, mechanism of injury, and other clinical and radiographic manifestations. Seventy consecutive patients, predominantly male, with a mean age of 28.6 ± 14 years (range 2–60 years) were enrolled: 38 patients (54.3%) sustained mandibular fractures caused by bullet injuries and 32 patients (45.7%) had mandibular fractures caused by IED explosion injuries. The study revealed that the differences in most of the investigated variables were not statistically significant; the only significant differences were the inci

Growth hormone deficiency is a condition that occurs when a limited volume of growth hormone is released by the pituitary gland since growth hormone deficiency causes growth delays, short stature, and overall physical development delays. symptoms differ based on the age at which they occur .Aim of this study Estimating the level of growth hormone serotonin ,IGF-1 and Chromogranin A before and after with treatment recombinant growth hormone and It is the first study in Iraq that sheds light on the relationship between Chromogranin and other variables ( somatostatin, IGF-1,GH) ,also the prediction of Chromogranin A as a newly biochemical marker in children with growth hormone deficiency. In this study, 30 samples were collected from children

Global concerns are rising due to complications associated with the use of chemical agents and antibiotic resistance. Consequently, research focus has shifted towards the quest for effective agents of biological origin. The aim of the present study was to assess the antioxidant and antimicrobial potentials of aqueous and organic extracts derived from various parts of Alcea kurdica. Different parts of A. kurdica were obtained and prepared into leaf, flower and root powders. The powders were extracted with aqueous and organic solvents. The antimicrobial activity of these extracts was assessed against bacterial pathogens using the agar well-diffusion assay. Additionally, the antioxidant effects of the extracts were evaluated using the

This paper designed a fault tolerance for soft real time distributed system (FTRTDS). This system is designed to be independently on specific mechanisms and facilities of the underlying real time distributed system. It is designed to be distributed on all the computers in the distributed system and controlled by a central unit.

Besides gathering information about a target program spontaneously, it provides information about the target operating system and the target hardware in order to diagnose the fault before occurring, so it can handle the situation before it comes on. And it provides a distributed system with the reactive capability of reconfiguring and reinitializing after the occurrence of a failure.

Stabilization of phenol trapped by agricultural waste: a study of the influence of ambient temperature on the adsorbed phenol

       The aim of the research is to show the extent of the impact of administrative coordination on municipal performance after the state’s tendency to implement administrative decentralization and transfer of powers (administrative, legal, financial, and technical) from the Federal Ministry (construction, housing, municipalities, and public works) to local governments (governorates), to meet local needs, And since the municipality is considered one of the local administrative institutions and most of its goal is to provide increased municipal services to citizens due to population growth and urban expansion of cities by coordinating their actions using their powers, and in order to address gaps i

The exchange rate is of great importance at the global and local levels alike, as this importance increases with the increasing rates of development of economic relations between countries of the world due to openness and integration into the global economy, expressed by the expansion of the volume of trade and financial relations between countries. The Central Bank of Iraq has set the need to stabilize this price as a goal to reduce inflation rates and reduce them to the internationally accepted rates by using the foreign currency sale window to achieve a balance between the forces of supply and demand for foreign currency and to preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar. The research concluded that the central bank was It has a maj