Given that the Crimean and Congo hemorrhagic fever is one of the deadly viral diseases that occur seasonally due to the activity of the carrier “tick,” studying and developing a mathematical model simulating this illness are crucial. Due to the delay in the disease’s incubation time in the sick individual, the paper involved the development of a mathematical model modeling the transmission of the disease from the carrier to humans and its spread among them. The major objective is to comprehend the dynamics of illness transmission so that it may be controlled, as well as how time delay affects this. The discussion of every one of the solution’s qualitative attributes is included. According to the established basic reproduction number, the stability analysis of the endemic equilibrium point and the disease-free equilibrium point is examined for the presence or absence of delay. Hopf bifurcation’s triggering circumstance is identified. Using the center manifold theorem and the normal form, the direction and stability of the bifurcating Hopf bifurcation are explored. The next step is sensitivity analysis, which explains the set of control settings that have an impact on how the system behaves. Finally, to further comprehend the model’s dynamical behavior and validate the discovered analytical conclusions, numerical simulation has been used.
In this study a combination of two basics known methods used to daily prediction of solar insolation in Baghdad city, Iraq, for the first time, the harmonic and the classical linear regression analyses, thus it is called HARLIN model. The resulted prediction data compared with basics data for Baghdad city for two years (2010-2011), where the model showed a great success application in the accurate results, compared with the linear famous and well known model which is used the classical linear Angstrom equations with various formulations in many previous studies.
In this paper a mathematical model that analytically as well as numerically
the flow of infection disease in a population is proposed and studied. It is
assumed that the disease divided the population into five classes: immature
susceptible individuals (S1) , mature individuals (S2 ) , infectious individual
(I ), removal individuals (R) and vaccine population (V) . The existence,
uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The
local and global stability of the model is studied. Finally the global dynamics of
the proposed model is studied numerically.
Abstract
This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi
... Show MorePerformance issues could be appearing from anywhere in a computer system, finding the root cause of those issues is a troublesome issue due to the complexity of the modern systems and applications. Microsoft builds multiple mechanisms to make their engineers understand what is happening inside All Windows versions including Windows 10 Home and the behavior of any application working on it whether Microsoft services or even third-party applications, one of those mechanisms is the Event Tracing for Windows (ETW) which is the core of logging and tracing in Windows operating system to trace the internal events of the system and its applications. This study goes deep into internal process activities to investigat
... Show MoreTo deduct the childhood status in Iraq, it was important manner to use statistical tools and approaches concerned with interpreting the causal relationships and their attitudes and use classification method for the important effects (variables) to draw an obvious picture of the phenomena under study in order to make it useful through investing, updating and improving it in by demographic studies in the future. Two statistical methods had been used in the field of analyzing data of multivariate analysis namely, Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis.
The present study focuses on four fundamental axes .The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has ca
... Show MoreThis study aims to evaluate reservoir characteristics of Hartha Formation in Majnoon oil field based on well logs data for three wells (Mj-1, Mj-3 and Mj-11). Log interpretation was carried out by using a full set of logs to calculate main petrophysical properties such as effective porosity and water saturation, as well as to find the volume of shale. The evaluation of the formation included computer processes interpretation (CPI) using Interactive Petrophysics (IP) software. Based on the results of CPI, Hartha Formation is divided into five reservoir units (A1, A2, A3, B1, B2), deposited in a ramp setting. Facies associations is added to well logs interpretation of Hartha Formation, and was inferred by a microfacies analysis of th
... Show MoreThe present art icle discusses the prob lems of understanding and translating the lingu istic and cult ural aspect of a foreign lite rary text. The article considers the trans lation process through the pr ism of cult ural orientation. In the process of transl ation, the nati onal cultural iden tity should be expressed to the max imum extent, through all me ans of expre ssion that include imagery and inton ation. In addi tion to the author's sty le, special atte ntion should al so be pa id to tro pes, phraseological uni ts, colloquial wo rds and dial&n
... Show MoreMetaphor is one of the most important linguistic phenomena of the artistic text, as it is the expression of the author’s emotions and evaluations, the result of a deep inner transformation of the semantic words and visual means of reflecting the national culture of each people. This paper examines the concept of linguistic metaphors and analyzes its types in the Russian and Arabic linguistics, provides a comparative analysis of metaphors in Russian and Arabic — all this allows to conclude that metaphorization is characteris- tic of different parts of speech. In the Russian language stylistic differentiation of the metaphors expressed more than in Arabic, so translation of many “sty- listic” metaphors from Russian into Arabic due to
... Show MoreBecause of the experience of the mixture problem of high correlation and the existence of linear MultiCollinearity between the explanatory variables, because of the constraint of the unit and the interactions between them in the model, which increases the existence of links between the explanatory variables and this is illustrated by the variance inflation vector (VIF), L-Pseudo component to reduce the bond between the components of the mixture.
To estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used in our research the use of methods that increase bias and reduce variance, such as the Ridge Regression Method and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method a
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The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
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