A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Purpose This study was design to investigate of Purpose This study was design to investigate of P. aeruginosa, an example of Gram-negative bacteria, in seven primary and secondary schools of Baghdad city, and the effects of Ethanol and Dettol of P. aeruginosa biofilm. Design/methodology/approach Seventy swabs were collected from seven primary and secondary schools of Baghdad city, Iraq, during November -December 2022. Swabs were collected from classes desk, doors handles, students hands and water taps. Standard microbiological testing methods were used on the samples for isolation and identification. The ability of bacteria to form biofilm and the effects of Ethanol and Dettol on “preformed” biofilms was examined by microtiter plate wi

       This research aims to modify the components of stainless steel alloy by the method of surface engineering through the single diffusion coating technique in order to obtain new alloys with high efficiency in resisting harsh environmental conditions. Steam a mixture of sodium chloride ( ) and sodium sulfate ( ) at a temperature of 900 and then compare it with the base alloy. The results showed that the alloys produced in this way are very efficient. The results showed that the aluminum coating showed high efficiency in resisting oxidation and provided better protection for a longer time compared to the uncoated alloy due to the  oxide crust layer formed with high adhesion as well as the aluminum-rich phases, whether the phase

Abstract: An unfavorable complication of root canal is vertical root fracture. The aim of present study is to evaluate the vertical root fracture of treated teeth filled with gutta percha and Resilon obturating material using different sealers. Forty mandibular premolars used in the study. Canals randomly divided into four groups (n=10). Group-A eugenol-based (Endofill) sealer with gutta percha; GroupB epoxy-amine (AH Plus) sealer with gutta percha; Group-C resin-based (Real Seal) sealer with Resilon; or Group-D epoxide-based (Perma Evolution) sealer with gutta percha. Roots mounted vertically in cold cure acrylic blocks and subjected to vertical loading with a crosshead speed of 1mm ̸min. The point at which fracture of the roots occurred

This study aimed at evaluating the torsional capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) beams externally wrapped with fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials. An analytical model was described and used as a new computational procedure based on the softened truss model (STM) to predict the torsional behavior of RC beams strengthened with FRP. The proposed analytical model was validated with the existing experimental data for rectangular sections strengthened with FRP materials and considering torque-twist relationship and crack pattern at failure. The confined concrete behavior, in the case of FRP wrapping, was considered in the constitutive laws of concrete in the model. Then, an efficient algorithm was developed in MATLAB environment t

A comparison between the resistance capacity of a single pile excited by two opposite rotary machines embedded in dry and saturated sandy soil was considered experimentally. A small-scale physical model was manufactured to accomplish the experimental work in the laboratory. The physical model consists of: two small motors supplied with eccentric mass 0·012 kg and eccentric distance 20 mm representing the two opposite rotary machines, an aluminum shaft with 20 mm in diameter as the pile, and a steel plate with dimensions of (160 × 160 × 20 mm) as a pile cap. The experimental work was achieved taking the following parameters into consideration, pile embedment depth ratio (L/d; length to diameter) and operating freq

This study seeks to shed light on the aspects of visual pollution and its impact on the aesthetics of the town of Al-Eizariya known to suffer from the phenomenon. In order to identify the real causes of the problem which develops in various forms and patterns, threatening not only the aesthetic appearance of the towns, but also causes the emergence of new problems and phenomena that will have negative repercussions on the population. The researcher uses the analytical descriptive method to analyze the phenomenon of visual pollution in terms of reality, development, manifestations and spread and uses photos which document the visual pollution and its impact on the aesthetics of the known. The study concluded the existence of a strong rela