The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

Photonic crystal fiber interferometers (PCFIs) are widely used for sensing applications. This work presented solid core-PCFs based on Mach-Zehnder modal interferometer for sensing refractive index. The general structure of sensor was applied by splicing short lengths of PCF in both sides with conventional single mode fiber (SMF-28).To apply modal interferometer theory collapsing technique based on fusion splicing used to excite higher order modes (LP01 and LP11). A high sensitive optical spectrum analyzer (OSA) was used to monitor and record the transmitted wavelength. This work studied a Mach-Zahnder interferometer refractive index sensor based on splicing point tapered SMF-PCF-SMF. Relation between refractive index sensitivity and tape

Theresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had

الخلاصة

اهتم الفكر السياسي في القرنين الاخيرين بدراسة الطبقات على نحو غير مسبوق, واصبح موضوع التحليل الطبقي المعني بالطبقات من حيث تعريفها, وتحديد موقعها في السلم الاجتماعي, فضلاً عن نوعية العلاقة بين شرائحها وفئاتها المختلفة من حيث الصراع والتناغم, المادة الرئيسة والموضوع الاكثر اهمية في دراسات الفكر السياسي والاجتماعي.ومن بين الطبقات, احتلت الطبقة الوسطى مكا

Al Huweizah Marsh is considered as the largest marsh at the southern part of Iraq. About one third of the marsh is located within the Iranian territory. Iran began to construct earth dikes along the Iraqi-Iranian international borders to separate the Iranian part of the marsh. The electrical conductivity, EC, value was adopted to be the indicator for the water salinity within the marsh. A steady two-dimensional water quality routing model was implemented by using the RMA2 and RMA4 softwares within the SMS computer package to estimate the distribution of the
EC values within the marsh seasonally during the wet, moderate and dry water years. The EC distribution Patterns were estimated considering the expected two cases of the marsh futu

In this study, phytoplankton density, chlorophyll-a, and selected physico- chemical parameters were investigated in Erbil wastewater channel. The surveys were carried out monthly from May 2003 to April 2004. Samplings were established on three sites from headwaters to the mouth. The results showed that pH was in alkaline side of neutrality, with significant differences (P<0.05) between sites 1 and 3. TSS concentration decreased from site 1 toward site 2 (mean value, 80.15 to 25.79 mg.l-1). A clear gradual increase in mineral content (TDS) observed from site one of the channel towards the mouthpart. Soluble reactive phosphate has a concentration maximum mean value reached 48.4 µg.l-1 which is recorded in site 2. A high positive relat

Chlorine disinfection is a globally used method to ensure the safety of drinking water. However, it has not always been successful against viruses and, therefore, it is important to find new methods to disinfect water. Seventeen different coliphages were isolated from the treated municipal wastewater. These coliphages and MS2 were treated with different dosages of chlorine in drinking water, and a combined chlorine/ultraviolet irradiation treatment for the chlorine-resistant coliphages. Chlorine disinfection with 0.3–0.5 mg/L total chlorine (free Cl-dosage 0.12–0.21 mg/L) for 10 min achieved 2.5–5.7 Log10-reductions for 11 sensitive coliphages. The six most resistant coliphages showed no reduction with these chlorine concentra

One of the goals of adding adjuvants to agricultural spray solutions is to enhance the droplet size characteristics of this spray. Droplet size, in turn, has an influence in the deposited spray quality, in addition to the drift and losses of spray to off-target places. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of adding adjuvants to two types of water from different sources on the droplet size characteristics. Two types of adjuvants were employed in the tests: the active substance content of the first adjuvant was a 50% aqueous solution of sodium salt of alkylbenzenesulfonic acid—10% (HY), whereas the second was from rapeseed oil (natural origin)—85% (OL). Both adjuvants were tested in two concentrations: the first was

With growing global demand for hydrocarbons and decreasing conventional reserves, the gas industry is shifting its focus in the direction of unconventional reservoirs. Tight gas reservoirs have typically been deemed uneconomical due to their low permeability which is understood to be below 0.1mD, requiring advanced drilling techniques and stimulation to enhance hydrocarbons. However, the first step in determining the economic viability of the reservoir is to see how much gas is initially in place. Numerical simulation has been regarded across the industry as the most accurate form of gas estimation, however, is extremely costly and time consuming. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for a simple analytical method to esti