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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Vibration Analysis of Cross-Ply Plates Under Initial Stress Using Refined Theory
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Natural frequency under initial stresses for simply supported cross-ply composite laminated plates (E glass- fiber) are obtained using Refind theory (RPT). This theory accounts for parabolic distribution of the transverse shear strain through the plate thickness and satisfies the zero traction boundary conditions on the surfaces of the plate without using shear correction factors. The governing equations for Eigen value problem under initial stress are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution for simply supported cross-ply symmetric and antisymmetric laminated plates. The effect of many design factors such as modulus ratio, thickness ratio and number of laminates on the Natural frequency and buckling stresses

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
DOMINATION OF CONTENT OVER FORM IS ONE OF THE PROBLEMS OF CHILDREN’S STORIES IN IRAQ
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The stories of children in Iraq during the past two decades have received a number of important scientific studies. Despite tyranny of the historical study method on most of these studies, they have been and still are very important, because they have established a chronicle of this literary style that has been neglected and based not only on the academic level and serious in-depth university studies but also on the enclosed sight that doesn’t consider studied art as an innovation with its specificity and its typical technical components. While many of the public impressions and self-reflections contributed to the dominance of some of the provisions and concepts that were circulated as critical remarks and adopted by som

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 11 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Al-Abiadh Valley Drainage Basin Environmental Aspects Extraction Using Quantitatively Morphometric Analyses of Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission Data
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         The accurate extracting, studying, and analyzing of drainage basin morphometric aspects is important for the accurate determination of environmental factors that formed them, such as climate, tectonic activity, region lithology, and land covering vegetation.

This work was divided into three stages; the 1st stage was delineation of the Al-Abiadh basin borders using a new approach that depends on three-dimensional modeling of the studied region and a drainage network pattern extraction using (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) data, the 2nd was the classification of the Al-Abiadh basin streams according to their shape and widenings, and the 3rd was ex

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Estimate Gas Initially in Place of Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on Developed Methodology of Dynamic Material Balance Technique
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With growing global demand for hydrocarbons and decreasing conventional reserves, the gas industry is shifting its focus in the direction of unconventional reservoirs. Tight gas reservoirs have typically been deemed uneconomical due to their low permeability which is understood to be below 0.1mD, requiring advanced drilling techniques and stimulation to enhance hydrocarbons. However, the first step in determining the economic viability of the reservoir is to see how much gas is initially in place. Numerical simulation has been regarded across the industry as the most accurate form of gas estimation, however, is extremely costly and time consuming. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for a simple analytical method to esti

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The importance of improved forests in Iraq and their impact on the economic and social future
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عانت الغابات في العراق قصوراً واضحاً في مجال إشباع حاجة السكان لمنتجاتها الرئيسية المتمثلة بالأخشاب ومنتجاتها الثانوية المتمثلة بالأغصان والأوراق والنباتات الطبيعية والحيوانات البرية ونواتجها الأخرى، مما يتطلب التفكير بمحاولة إيجاد سبل جديدة لحل هذه المشكلة الاقتصادية المرتبطة بعنصريها الحاجة للأخشاب والأموال المخصصة لتطويرها عموماً.

لقد دمرت مساحات كبيرة من الغابات وحرقت وقطعت من

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Food problem in Iraq: Challenges and Antiquities.: Food problem in Iraq: Challenges and Antiquities.
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Research Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Collaboration And Integration In Construction, Engineering, Management And Technology
A Hybrid Conceptual Model for BIM Adoption in Facilities Management: A Descriptive Analysis for the Collected Data
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayes Analysis for the Scale Parameter of Gompertz Distribution
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In this paper, we investigate the behavior of the bayes estimators, for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distribution under two different loss functions such as, the squared error loss function, the exponential loss function (proposed), based different double prior distributions represented as erlang with inverse levy prior, erlang with non-informative prior, inverse levy with non-informative prior and erlang with chi-square prior.

The simulation method was fulfilled to obtain the results, including the estimated values and the mean square error (MSE) for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distribution, for different cases for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distr

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality of manufacturing industries and ways to reduce the rent economy in Iraq (Future Vision)
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Manufacturing industries are at the beginning of the thinking of those who put economic policies in developed countries and also more in developing countries, where manufacturing is the engine of industrial and economic development through its performance and its effective role in the formation of GDP, as well as the great advantages that characterize this sector and affect Largely on sustainable development, as well as its importance in its influential role in protecting national industry through increased exports and reduced imports.

      Iraq is one of the countries that rely on its oil economy to rely entirely on the provision of needs and requirements of the state, and this

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Modeling of Renal Ionic Equilibrium for Implantable Kidney Applications
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The human kidney is one of the most important organs in the human body; it performs many functions
and has a great impact on the work of the rest of the organs. Among the most important possible treatments is
dialysis, which works as an external artificial kidney, and several studies have worked to enhance the
mechanism of dialysate flow and improve the permeability of its membrane. This study introduces a new
numerical model based on previous research discussing the variations in the concentrations of sodium,
potassium, and urea in the extracellular area in the blood during hemodialysis. We simulated the differential
equations related to mass transfer diffusion and we developed the model in MATLAB Simu

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