Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
In this paper, the Azzallini’s method used to find a weighted distribution derived from the standard Pareto distribution of type I (SPDTI) by inserting the shape parameter (θ) resulting from the above method to cover the period (0, 1] which was neglected by the standard distribution. Thus, the proposed distribution is a modification to the Pareto distribution of the first type, where the probability of the random variable lies within the period The properties of the modified weighted Pareto distribution of the type I (MWPDTI) as the probability density function ,cumulative distribution function, Reliability function , Moment and the hazard function are found. The behaviour of probability density function for MWPDTI distrib
... Show MoreSix isolates of A. pullulans were collected from many sources including Hibiscus sabdariffa (Roselle), old Roofs of houses and bathroom surface that referred as Ap ros1, Ap or2, 3, 4 and Ap bs5, 6 respectively, all these isolates were identified based on morphological characteristics and nutritional physiology profiles, all were able to utilize various carbon and nitrogen sources such as glucose, xylose, sucrose, maltose, ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate and ammonium chloride, also they showed positive test for starch and amylase, while α-cellulose, ethanol, and methanol were could not be ass
... Show MoreThe study was aimed to determine the coordinates of the points were measured by different ways and different instruments, the most precise way using the differential global positioning system (DGPS) that will be the reference measurements in comparison, less precise way using navigator GPS. Google earth (pro.), and the other applications of GPS mobile ( Samsung and I-phone). In this research (8 points) were chosen that are occasional in location. The comparison of the different observations can give us an idea of the extent to which the accuracy of the observations differs from the different devices used in the observing, as well as through the knowledge of the best device and the best way to measure coordinates accurately t
... Show MoreThe experimental study showed the use of closed cavity wall (the thickness of the cavity 5cm) made a percentage reduction in the cooling load caused by heat gain from the wall by (21.5 %) compared with the conventional wall. also the thermal resistance of the closed cavity was an average (0.2 m2.oC/W).
The experimental results of the study showed that the use of closed cavity wall reduced the average temperature of the inner surface of the wall during the day, and that the reduction was an average (0.45 oC) when compared with the conventional wall , as well as the use of closed cavity wall reduced the temperature difference range of the inner surface of the wall during the day, and that the
... Show MoreExperimental tests were conducted to investigate the thermal performance (cooling effect) of water mist system consisting of 5μm volume median diameter droplets in reducing the heat gain entering a room through the roof and the west wall by reducing the outside surface temperature due to the evaporative cooling effect during the hot dry summer of Baghdad/Iraq. The test period
was Fifty one days during the months May, June, and July 2012. The single test day consists of 16 test hours starting from 8:00 am to 12:00 pm. The results showed a reduction range of 1.71 to 15.5℃ of the roof outside surface temperature and 21.3 to 76.6% reduction in the daily heat flux entering the room through the roof compared with the case of not using w
Abstract
The aim of this research is to identify the general level of teachers’ curriculum expectations in (geography subject as a model), as well as the significance of the difference in the level of teachers’ curriculum expectations in light of the gender variables (male, female), the years of service (10 years or less - more than 10 years), the level of attitudes of fourth-grade literary students towards geography, the level of congruence between teachers’ curriculum expectations and the attitudes of fourth-grade literary students towards geography in light of the variables, the general level of congruence and the level of congruence between teachers’ curriculum expectations and the attitudes of studen
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In the present work, thermal diffusivity and heat capacity measurements have been investigated in temperature range between RT and 1473 K for different duplex stainless steel supplied by Outokumpu Stainless AB, Sweden. The purpose of this study is to get a reliable thermophysical data of these alloys and to study the effect of microstructure on the thermal diffusivity and heat capacity value. Results show the ferrite content in the duplex stainless steel increased with temperature at equilibrium state. On the other hand, ferrite content increased with increasing Cr/Ni ratio and there is no significant effect of ferrite content on the thermal diffusivity value at room temperature. Furthermore, the heat capacity of all sam
... Show MoreA comparative study was carried out to evaluate alkaloid antibacterial activity which was extracted from the root bark Punica granatum L. by liquid membrane techniques (SA) and organic solvent traditional techniques (SB). The screening of the antimicrobial activity was conducted by agar well diffusion method against Staphylococcus aureus, Enterobacter cloacae, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Proteus mirabilis at three concentration levels (5, 10 and 15 mg/ml). Alkaloid extracts were analyzed by a high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Among the tested extractions, SB showed the highest antibacterial activity against all five bacterial strains, especially at 15 mg/ml concentration. However, all the B type solution
... Show MoreIn this work, seven soil samples were brought brought to study and analyses the element concentrations from different southern regions of Iraq using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique. It has been documented as an atomic emission spectroscopy (AES) technique. Laser-induced plasma utilized to analyze elements in materials (gases, liquids, and solids). In order to analyze elements in materials (gases, liquids, and solid). The Nd: YAG laser excitation source at 1064 nm with pulse width 9 ns is used to generate power density of 5.5 x 1012 MW/mm2, with optical spectrum in the range 320-740 nm. From this investigation, the soil sample analysis of the southern cities of Iraqi, it is concluded that the rich soil element of P, Si,
... Show MoreThe tunnel’s stability during construction is a very important matter. Some methods have been proposed for stability evaluation, but the hazard warning levels (HWLs) are more applicable among these methods. Despite monitoring and applying HWLs, several collapses in Shibli twin tunnels in Iran have cast doubts on the accuracy of this criterion in the presence of water. In this study, the critical strains under different water contents were measured through uniaxial compressive strength tests on 11 different shale and marl samples. A comparison of laboratory tests and numerical results shows that the influence of the moisture content on the critical strain is negligible. In addition, the results show that there is no dir
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