The two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemployment rate, inflation and Gini coefficient. The data were taken from the website of the Statistics Center for the years 2002 to 2023.Under the Poisson regression model, each factor has been reported to have an effect on the divorce rate. The two factors of inflation and unemployment had a direct effect and income inequality factors had an inverse effect on the divorce rate. But, under the negative binomial regression model, only inflation has an effect on the number of divorces. It is worth noting that according to the AIC values, the negative binomial regression model has a better fit than the Poisson regression model because its AIC value is lower.
Land use change, particularly the expansion of urban areas and associated human activities at the expense of natural and semi-natural areas, is a major ecological issue in urban areas around the world. Climate change being a very strong additional driver for changing the temperature and habitat in the cities. This also applies to Baghdad, Iraq, where urbanisation and climate change exerts a major pressure on the natural habitats of the city, and thus may affect the ability of city planners to adapt to future climate change scenarios. Here we present evidence of substantial growth in urban areas, increases in temperature, and degradation of natural vegetation within Baghdad city by using Remote Sensing techniques and an assessment for the
... Show MoreThe study of vegetative change of cities is one of the most important studies related to human life because of its direct correlation with the temporal conditions that occur. These include the economic problems that force people to move and look for job opportunities in the city, which leads to an increase in the population density of cities, especially for cities with an important economic and administrative location as in the capital city of Baghdad. In this study, the effect of the increasing in population density was analyzed on the urban planning of Baghdad city. The decreasing in vegetation was due to the increasing of urban areas on the outskirts of the city, which led to an increase in its area. Moreover, urban cities increased t
... Show MoreIn spite of economic importance of sugar cane and sugar beet as they described as industrial crops they still face decreasing rates of production and productivity in Iraq , and their production was not able to satisfy the local industrial demands for sugar . Thus this study aimed at studying and analyzing, production and productivity of sugar cane and sugar beet in Iraq and this has been done by using non serial data that can be obtained from official offices in Iraq . The area and production of sugar cane in Iraq recorded positive annual growth rates during 1970- 1978 which were 6% and 5% consequently , while the productivity of sugar cane recorded at the same duration of time negative annual growth rate which was 1% , while they recorded
... Show MoreThis study was aimed to investigate the load of bacterial contaminant in fresh meat with different types of bacteria.One handered and seven samples were collected from different regions of Baghdad . These samples included 37 of fresh beef 70 of fresh sheep meat. All samples were cultured on different selective media to identitfy of contaminated bacteria .The result revealed that The percentage of bacterial isolate from raw sheep meat were, % 23.8of StreptococcusgroupD,29.4 % of Staphylococcus aureus ,14.7 % of E.coli , %4.9of Salmonella spp, ,%3.5 of pseudomonas aeruginosa, %14.7.%14.7 of Proteus spp.% 2.1 of Listeria spp while the raw beef meat content %5.55 of Staphylococcus aureus, %8.14 of streptococcus group D , %5.18 %1.85 of E.coli,
... Show MoreObjective: This study goal was to screen participants from different settings in Baghdad for depression using Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) scale and identify factors influencing the levels of depression. Methods: This cross-sectional study included a convenience sample of 313 people from four settings (teaching hospital, college of medicine, college of pharmacy, and high school) in Baghdad, Iraq. The participants were screened using paper survey relying on the BDI scale during spring 2018. Using multiple linear regression analysis, we measured the association between depression scores and six participant factors. Results: The overall prevalence of depression in our sample was 57.2%. Female participants had higher BDI
... Show MoreStatistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
There are many economic issues that concern society at the local and international levels and which constitute a serious challenge to the societies and governments , perhaps including the issue of corruption in all its forms and manifestations and effects , which now attract the attention the issue of human society everywhere .
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