Analyzing food production risk with Monte Carlo simulation
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Iraq is highly dependent on international markets to provide food for its residents. As imported food prices are highly dependent on crude oil prices in global markets, any shock in oil prices will have an impact on food consumption in the country. As a result, it is essential to study the demand for imported food at every time period. To the best of our knowledge as researchers, as not even a single study is available in the literature, this paper is considered the first to study the demand for imported food groups in Iraq. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to estimate demand elasticities for several imported food categories in Iraq. This study uses an Almost Ideal Demand System model to analyze the demand for imported f
... Show MoreIntroduction: Nitrofurantoin (NFT) is abroad spectrum bactericidal antibiotic. The bioavailability of NFT is affected by many factors. Samafurantin® tablets containing 50 mg NFT were manufactured by Samarra drug industry. Urinary excretion studies were employed since; the urinary tract is the main site of NFT action and excretion. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate the effect of Uricol® and food on secondary pharmacokinetic parameters of Samafurantin® tablets with different doses by applying urinary data. Methods: Twelve healthy male volunteers participated in this study. Urine samples were collected from each volunteer after overnight fasting at a specified time intervals which considered as a blank sample for meas
... Show MoreThe objective of this research is to know the economic feasibility of hydroponics technology by estimating the expected demand for green forage for the years 2021-2031 as well as Identify and analyze project data and information in a way that helps the investor make the appropriate investment decision in addition to preparing a detailed technical preliminary study for the cultivar barley project focusing on the commercial and financing aspects and the criteria that take into account the risks and uncertainties . that indicating the economic feasibility of the project to produce green forage using hydroponics technology. Cultured barley as a product falls within the blue ocean strategy. Accordingly, the research recommends the necess
... Show MoreThe air flow pattern in a co-current pilot plant spray dryer fitted with a rotary disk atomizer was determined experimentally and modelled numerically using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) (ANSYS Fluent ) software. The CFD simulation used a three dimensions system, Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes equations (RANS), closed via the RNG k −ε turbulence model. Measurements were carried out at a rotation of the atomizer (3000 rpm) and when there is no rotation using a drying air at 25 oC and air velocity at the inlet of 5 m/s without swirl. The air flow pattern was predicted experimentally using cotton tufts and digital anemometer. The CFD simulation predicted a downward central flowing air core surrounded by a slow
... Show MoreThe effect of air injection device on the performance of airlift pump used for water pumping has been studied numerically and experimentally. An airlift pump of dimensions 42mm diameter and 2200 mm length with conventional and modified air injection device was considered. A modification on conventional injection device (normal air-jacket type) was carried out by changing injection angle from 90 (for conventional) to 22.5 (for modified). Continuity and Navier-Stokes equations in turbulent regime with an appropriate two-phase flow model (VOF) and turbulent model ( ) in two dimensions axisymmetry flow were formulated and solved by using the known package FLUENT version (14.5). The numerical and experimental investiga
... Show MoreThe Weibull distribution is considered one of the Type-I Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and it plays a crucial role in modeling extreme events in various fields, such as hydrology, finance, and environmental sciences. Bayesian methods play a strong, decisive role in estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution due to their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and handle small sample sizes effectively. In this research, we compare several shrinkage Bayesian estimation methods based on the squared error and the linear exponential loss functions. They were adopted and compared by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The performance of these methods is assessed based on their accuracy and computational efficiency in estimati
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