Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building  chain.

Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol

To overcome  the  problems  which  associated  with  the standard  multiple  daily  doses (MDD)

of aminoglycosides (AGs) like high incidence of toxicity(nephrotoxicity, ototoxicity)(5-25%) and high cost, an alternative approach was developed which was single daily dose (SDD).This new regimen was designed to maximize bacterial killing by optimizing the peak concentration/minimum inhibitory concentration(MIC)ratio and to reduce the potential for toxicity. The study includes 75 patients selected randomly, 50 of them received SDD regimen of age range of 17-79 years and the remaining received MDD regimen of age range of 13-71 years. The study was designed to evaluate the safety of SDD regim

In this study, a three-dimensional finite element analysis using ANSYS 12.1 program had been employed to simulate simply supported reinforced concrete (RC) T-beams with multiple web circular openings subjected to an impact loading. Three design parameters were considered, including size, location and number of the web openings. Twelve models of simply supported RC T-beams were subjected to one point of transient (impact) loading at mid span. Beams were simulated and analysis results were obtained in terms of mid span deflection-time histories and compared with the results of the solid reference one. The maximum mid span deflection is an important index for evaluating damage levels of the RC beams subjected to impact loading. Three experi

Double-layer micro-perforated panels (MPPs) have been studied extensively as sound absorption systems to increase the absorption performance of single-layer MPPs. However, existing proposed models indicate that there is still room for improvement regarding the frequency bands of absorption for the double-layer MPP. This study presents a double-layer MPP formed with two single MPPs with inhomogeneous perforation backed by multiple cavities of varying depths. The theoretical formulation is developed using the electrical equivalent circuit method to calculate the absorption coefficient under a normal incident sound. The simulation results show that the proposed model can produce absorption coefficient with wider absorption bandwidth compared w

A new method, simple and sensitive was utilized in determining mebeverine – HCl (MB-HCl) (3, 4-Dimethoxy benzoic acid ethyl 2, 4 methoxy4-phenyl-1-methyl ethyl amino-butyl ester) in pure and pharmaceutical formulations via utilization this multiple continuous flow cell. The method is dependent on genesis for complex of ion pair(4-((3, 4-dimethoxybenzoyl) oxy)-N-ethyl-N-(1-(4-methoxyphenyl) propan-2-yl) butan-1-aminium-2-hydroxy-3,5- dinitrobenzoate) among mebeverine–HCl (MB-HCl) and 3,5-Dinitrosalicylic acid (3,5-DNSA) in ammonium acetate middle to configure a whiteish yellow precipitate compound via utilizing multiple continuous flow cell that works as a solo flow cell with 4S×3 – 3D analyzer. Optimum parameters were studied to rai

The current research aims to know the effect of teaching using multiple intelligences theory on academic achievement for students of primary school. The sample search of pupils . The research sample was divided into two groups where the first group represented the experimental group which studied the use of multiple intelligences and the second group represented the control group which studied the use of the traditional way . The search tool consisted of achievement test. Showed search results, there are statistically significant differences(0.05) between the average scores of students who have studied according to multiple intelligences between the average scores of students who have studied in accordance with the tradition way in the p

Sediment samples were collected from main water processing and supply plants in Baghdad, and tested for radioactivity from both natural and artificial sources. These stations are: East Dijla (Tigris), Al-Kadisia, Al-Karama, Al-Rasheed, Al-Sader, Al-Wathba, and Al-Wihda supply stations. Qualitative measurements were made, and the results showed that most sediments exhibited natural radioactive level and sometimes less than the international regular standards. Specially, K-40 and Ra-226 results were much less than the standards for radioactive concentrations. Ac-228 concentration was found rather than Th-232 (in Al-Sader and Al-Wihda samples) but with low concentrations of about 10-15 Bg/kg and detection confidence ~45% , and Ce-141 and Be