The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Drama "The Condamned of Altona" shows many different aspects of the 20th century. It contrasts strong, self-assured characters with weak, unsure ones to address absurdism and existentialism. Also, this piece shows the misery of the decade by showing Frantz, one of the play's heroes, taking his own life. Through suicide, disillusionment, and worry, the play depicts the upheaval of the 20th century, which was marred by numerous crises. The play's depiction of the jail and its inmates exemplifies the regret that accompanied the two world wars . Not only does guilt serve as a metaphor for the wrongs done by the Germans, but it also serves as a metaphor for the French inactivity during the occupation. And also the writers who did not devote thei

Permeability estimation is a vital step in reservoir engineering due to its effect on reservoir's characterization, planning for perforations, and economic efficiency of the reservoirs. The core and well-logging data are the main sources of permeability measuring and calculating respectively. There are multiple methods to predict permeability such as classic, empirical, and geostatistical methods. In this research, two statistical approaches have been applied and compared for permeability prediction: Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest, given the (M) reservoir interval in the (BH) Oil Field in the northern part of Iraq. The dataset was separated into two subsets: Training and Testing in order to cross-validate the accuracy

This study numerically intends to evaluate the effects of arc-shaped fins on the melting capability of a triplex-tube confinement system filled with phase-change materials (PCMs). In contrast to situations with no fins, where PCM exhibits relatively poor heat response, in this study, the thermal performance is modified using novel arc-shaped fins with various circular angles and orientations compared with traditional rectangular fins. Several inline and staggered layouts are also assessed to maximize the fin’s efficacy. The effect of the nearby natural convection is further investigated by adding a fin to the bottom of the heat-storage domain. Additionally, the Reynolds number and temperature of the heat-transfer fluid (HTF) are e

A field study was conducted at the college of Agriculture, Baghdad University-Jadiriyah to investigate the effect of adding potassium fertilizer and organic nutrient (Reef Amirich) on the population density of two sucking pests of cucumber, cotton whitefly, Bemisia tabaci and onion thrips, Thrips tabaci during the spring season/2016. Results indicated that potassium sulphate (50, 100 and 150 kg/ha) and organic nutrient (0.8 and 1.6ml/l) reduced both the population density of B. tabaci and T. tabaci nymphs depending on the fertilizer level of the user, the treatment 150 kg/ha for the potassium fertilizer and 1.6 ml/L for organic nutrient was the highest among others when minimized density of nymphs by 1.62 nymphs of B. tabaci/disk leaf and 0

Mercury, arsenic, cadmium and lead, were measured in sediment samples of river and marine environmental of Basra governorate in southern of Iraq. Sixteen sites of sediment were selected and distributed along Shatt Al-Arab River and the Iraqi marine environment. The samples were distributed among one station on Euphrates River before its confluence with Tigris River and Shatt Al-Arab formation, seven stations along Shatt Al-Arab River and eight stations were selected from the Iraqi marine region. All samples were collected from surface sediment in low tide time. ICP technique was used for the determination of mercury and arsenic for all samples, while cadmium and lead were measured for the same samples by using Atomic Absorption Spectrosc

A new method is characterized by simplicity, accuracy and speed for determination of Oxonuim ion in ionisable inorganic acid such as hydrochloric (0.1 - 10) ,Sulphuric ( 0.1 - 6 ),nitric ( 0.1 - 10 ), perchloric ( 0.1 - 7 ), acetic (0.1 - 100 ) and phosphoric ( 0.1 - 30 ) ( mMol.L-1 )acids. By continuous flow injection analysis. The proposed method was based on generation of bromine from the Bro-3-Br-- H3O+. Bromine reacts with fluorescein to quenches the fluorescence . A sample volume no.1 (31μl) and no.2 (35μl) were used with flow rate of 0.95 mL.min-1 using H2O line no.1as carrier stream and 1.3 mL.min-1 using fluorescein sodium salt line no.2. Linear regression of the concentration ( mMol.L-1 ) Vs quenched fluorescence gives a correla

Huge efforts are being made to control the spread and impacts of the coronavirus pandemic using vaccines. However, willingness to be vaccinated depends on factors beyond the availability of vaccines. The aim of this study was three-folded: to assess children’s rates of COVID-19 Vaccination as reported by parents, to explore parents’ attitudes towards children’s COVID-19 vaccination, and to examine the factors associated with parents’ hesitancy towards children’s vaccination in several countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR).

The purpose of this research is to highlight the relationship between the   administrative investigation and the improvement of institutional performance, and the research sought to achieve a set of cognitive and applied goals. the administrative investigation is the modern trend of managing the offices of the general  hginspectors and the main source to build the necessary standards to manage and invest its resources efficiently and effectively required to achieve the goals it seeks. The institutional performance is the cornerstone for the implementation of all tasks and duties carried out by institutions operating within the borders of a particular country, The significant change