ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The research deals with the concept of rationalization of consumption, which is legitimately legitimized, by indicating the permissibility of consumption and its limits in Islam, the legitimate aspects of spending and its controls, and the concept of development in the Islamic economy. The researcher followed the descriptive method by presenting the legal texts and jurisprudential opinions and linking them to contemporary economic problems.The research has reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that the goal of Islam in relation to consumption is to inform the Muslim of the amount of economic maturity, and the truth of alms is good in money and religion. It is necessary for achieving maturity that both means
... Show Moreعند إطلالتنا على هذا البلد العربي لابد من التقصي ولو بعجاله عن اقتصاده وهو الاهم باعتبار ان الاقتصاد هو شريان الحياة لأي أمة فلا غنى ولا تهاون في نفس الوقت عن هذا الجانب المهم الذي يرتبط مدى تطوره بتطور البلد وهذا الاخير مرتبط بما متوفر لديه من موارد بشريه ومادية وان تفاوتت النسبة بينها فلا ضير في ذلك فالاهم هو وجود الموجه والمخطط بالاتجاه الصحيح نحو الاستغلال الامثل لهذه الموارد
(وان قلّتْ) وبالتالي
The economy of a city has an important role not only in its establishment but also in its development. This is quite clear in the city of Baghdad throughout its history since its building in 762 A.D. In addition, most of its problems that the city is suffering from are basically related to not giving enough importance to the economic factors in the master planning of Baghdad since 1950’s. This may explain the failiars of master plans in dealing with the actual population growth and the city's inability to absorb such increases and interrelated and diverse activities which are negatively reflected on the economic variables particularly the effect on the land values, and the strong competitions amongst the land uses without previ
... Show MoreThe current research aims to reveal the impact of the strategy of cooperative integration of fragmented information in the acquisition of physical concepts and science processes among fourth scientific students through the null hypotheses:
1- There is no statistically significant difference at the level of significance (0.05) between the average grades of female students of the experimental group studying physics according to the strategy of cooperative integration of fragmented information and those who follow the traditional method in the test of acquiring physical concepts.
2-There is no statistically significant difference at the level of indication (0.05) between the average grades of female students of the experimen
... Show MoreThe present research was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of a training program to improve some aspects of sensory integration disorder and its effect on self-direction among a sample of children with intellectual disabilities. The study sample consists of (10 subjects as an experimental group) were exposed to the training program، and the control group consists of (10 subjects as a control group) were not exposed to the training program. The study included the following tools: A scale of self-direction for intellectual disability (prepared by the researcher). Training program (prepared by the researcher). The Results of the study showed the following: There are no statistically significant differences between the means ranks
... Show MoreThe formal integration of the interior spaces in general and the commercial spaces of the watch shops in the large commercial centers in particular is the goal that the designers aim to reach in order for the interior space to become successful in terms of the design idea and its characteristics. Implementation mechanism. One of the reasons for achieving formal integration in the interior spaces of watch shops is the requirements of the design that must be available in these spaces to reach a state of formal integration between the interior and the exterior so that the space becomes fully integrated in all respects. Because of the aforementioned reasons for dealing with the research, through four chapters: The first chapter included the
... Show MoreThe study aimed to test the hypothesis of Caldor to estimate the relationship between industrial production and GDP growth in Iraq using with Integration Framework and to determine the causal relationship in the short and long term using the error correction vector model for the period 1990-2016. the results showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and industrial output, while Ganger causality tests showed a causal relationship in the long run of GDP to output Subliminal thus illustrated the extent of the recession suffered by the industrial sector, which is supposed to be the driving force of the economy and the development and expansion of the productive base of the industry, so this study recommends attent
... Show MoreThe current research aims to build a training program for chemistry teachers based on the knowledge economy and its impact on the productive thinking of their students. To achieve the objectives of the research, the following hypothesis was formulated:
There is no statistically significant difference at (0.05) level of significance between the average grades of the students participating in the training program according to the knowledge economy and the average grades of the students who did not participate in the training program in the test of productive thinking. The study sample consisted of (288) second intermediate grade students divided into (152) for the control group
... Show MoreResearch aimed to explore the Application Effect of the Conflict Management Strategies by the managements to solve conflict between and inside the conflicted parties within (IGEC) to increase the productivity of the workers. To collect data, 110 questioners had been distributed among managers and heads of departments of all managerial levels, 102 answered questioners regained, 5 of them were disqualify for statistical analytic, only 97 were taking in consideration for statistical analysis presenting 93% of the retained number.
SPSS Program supported with a group of statistical tools, had been used for analysis purposes such as Kronbach Alpha test to assure the validity & stability of the t
... Show MoreThe most important contemporary issues which related to the survey of the influence of communication development technology to land use sustainability. The research aims to explain the changes that happened in the quality & land use activities performance by understanding the transformations due to modern technology and its impact on current uses and its impact on changing functional relationships between those uses to create new combinations or hybrid uses.Research will follow the analytical descriptive approach in presenting the problem of research. Research has several conclusions & recommendations, one of conclusions is the change of the place concept and its relation to changing the concept of land use and its sustai
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