The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.
Since the beginning of 21st century, the prices of Agricultural crops have increased. This Increases is accompanied with that increases of crude oil prices and fluctuation of a dollar exchange rate as a dominant currency used in the global trade. The paper aimed to analysis the short run and long run cointegration relationships between prices of some of Agricultural crops imported by Iraq such as wheat and rice crops and both the crude oil prices and the Iraq dinar exchange rate a gained America dollar using ARDL model. The results show the long run equilibrium between they three variable throng the error correction mechanizem. The results also show the significant and economically sound effects of cru
... Show MoreThis study investigates the influence of fear, refuge, and migration in a predator–prey model, where the interactions between the species follow an asymmetric function response. In contrast to some other findings, we propose that prey develop an anti-predator response in response to a concentration of predators, which in turn increases the fear factor of the predators. The conditions under which all ecologically meaningful equilibrium points exist are discussed in detail. The local and global dynamics of the model are determined at all equilibrium points. The model admits several interesting results by changing the rate of fear of predators and predator aggregate sensitivity. Numerical simulations have been performed to verify our theoret
... Show MoreIn this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended use as well as indicating pollution, which are useful in water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index (WQI) with ten physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Euphrates River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from seven stations within Al-Anbar province during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The ten physicochemical parame
... Show MoreIn this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended
use as well as indicating pollution, which are useful in water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index (WQI) with ten physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Euphrates River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from seven stations within Al-Anbar province during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The ten physicochemical paramete
The goal of the extant revision was to explore the influence of caffeic acid (CA) extracted from Arctium lappa L. on lipid profile and histology of aorta in rats . Analytical study demonstrated a high percentage of both chlorogenic and caffeic acid in the 80 % methanol extract of the aerial parts (leaves and stems) of Arctium lappa L. from the family Asteraceace. Hypolipidemic activity of caffeic acid was studied against cholesterol induced hypercholesterolemia in Wistar albino rats for thirty days. Rats were separated into normal group (A), hypercholesterolemic positive controller group (B). While, the rest three groups (C, D and E) attended as hypercholesterol
... Show MoreThe research aims to find the impact of a proposed strategy according to the Luria model on realistic thinking among fifth-class scientific students and their achievement in mathematics. To achieve it, the experimental research method and the quasi-experimental design were used for two equal groups, one of them is a control group taught in traditional way and the other is an experimental one taught according to strategy based on Luria model. The research community represents the students of the fifth scientific class from the General Directorate of Education of Karkh First. The research sample (40) students were deliberately chosen and distributed equally between the two groups after making sure that they were equals in their previo
... Show MoreIn recent years, literary studies have witnessed a remarkable shift towards employing digital technologies, particularly artificial intelligence tools, in analyzing literary texts and exploring their linguistic and semantic structures. This trend has provided researchers with new possibilities for understanding texts in quantitative and qualitative ways that transcend traditional methods based solely on critical reading. The current research aims to introduce professors and students of Arabic to artificial intelligence tools that contribute to the analysis of literary texts, focusing on exploring their mechanisms for studying style, meaning, structure, and emotion. It also seeks to highlight the most prominent challenges facing researchers
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